# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Tune run 6 (NEXT run): wider 10-name universe A/B vs run f744455056 (exp 1). # # Baseline (exp 1 / run f744455056 — this run): # Input : universe AAPL,MSFT,QQQ,IVV,SMH,TLT (6 names, 5 of them the same # tech beta); 21 features (OHLCV + TA); label 1-day next return; # LGB lr 0.05 / 15 leaves / 200 trees / reg 0.01,0.01; # train 03-01..05-31 / valid 06-01..06-30 / test 07-01..08-06. # Output: IC 0.048, ICIR 0.09, Rank IC 0.065, Rank ICIR 0.13 -> noise-level # (per-day n=6, IC swings -0.89..+0.74 with many null days). # Backtest had NO benchmark (benchmark null) -> the "+180% ann, IR 6.4" # headline is raw strategy return, not excess. Strategy +16.5% over 27 # days, but ~half the P&L came from ONE day (2026-07-30 MSFT +14% sell, # +$72k realized). 30 trades/27 days, $15.3k cost (1.5% of $1M), # ending book 46.6% SMH + 50.8% TLT (2-name lottery). # # PRIMARY LEVER (change one thing, everything else held at baseline): # universe: 6 -> 10 names (AAPL,MSFT,TSLA,QQQ,IVV,SMH,TLT,IBIT,MCHI,AIQ). # Rationale: with 6 near-collinear names there is nothing to rank — ICIR 0.09 # is cross-sectional noise and the topk book just re-buys tech momentum on # correlated bets. Widening to ~10 independent-ish betas (mega tech, semis, # S&P, Nasdaq, bonds, BTC, EM, robotics) gives the cross-section real breadth, # stabilizes IC, and makes a diversified topk book possible. # # SUPPORTING (kept minimal, flagged for attribution): # - topk 2 -> 4, n_drop 1 -> 2: kill the 2-name lottery, cut per-name churn. # - benchmark: unset -> QQQ: the baseline "excess return" was raw strategy # return because no benchmark was wired; QQQ is the index the tech-heavy # universe tracks. # - model: explicit num_boost_round 1000 + early_stopping_rounds 50 so round # count is controlled (baseline's n_estimators: 200 was swallowed into lgb # params and valid l2 rose monotonically -> overfit). Hyperparameters # otherwise identical to baseline for a clean universe A/B. # - label: KEPT at 1-day next return so this run isolates the universe lever; # a 5-day horizon is the natural NEXT experiment (see tune_run3). # # Trigger into a NEW experiment (do not pollute exp 1); evolved_from = f744455056: # rd_run_workflow config_path=tac-qlib/workflows/tune_run6_wider_universe_ab.yaml \ # experiment_name=tac-rd-tune # ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- {%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %} qlib_init: provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}" region: us expression_cache: null dataset_cache: null calendar_provider: class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider kwargs: lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}" market: US instrument_provider: class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider kwargs: lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}" market: US markets: {} feature_provider: class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider kwargs: lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}" market: US exp_manager: class: MLflowExpManager module_path: qlib.workflow.expm kwargs: uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db" default_exp_name: "tac-rd-tune" task: model: class: LGBModel module_path: qlib.contrib.model.gbdt kwargs: loss: mse learning_rate: 0.05 num_leaves: 15 num_boost_round: 1000 early_stopping_rounds: 50 colsample_bytree: 0.8 subsample: 0.8 subsample_freq: 1 reg_alpha: 0.01 reg_lambda: 0.01 seed: 2026 dataset: class: DatasetH module_path: qlib.data.dataset kwargs: handler: class: TACHandler module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler kwargs: instruments: AAPL,MSFT,TSLA,QQQ,IVV,SMH,TLT,IBIT,MCHI,AIQ start_time: 2000-01-03 end_time: 2026-08-06 fit_start_time: 2026-03-01 fit_end_time: 2026-05-31 freq: day lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}" market: US label: "Ref($close,-2)/Ref($close,-1)-1" segments: train: [2026-03-01, 2026-05-31] valid: [2026-06-01, 2026-06-30] test: [2026-07-01, 2026-08-06] record: - class: SignalRecord module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp kwargs: {} - class: SigAnaRecord module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp kwargs: ana_long_short: true ann_scaler: 252 - class: PortAnaRecord module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp kwargs: config: strategy: class: TopkDropoutStrategy module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy kwargs: signal: "" topk: 4 n_drop: 2 only_tradable: true risk_degree: 0.95 backtest: start_time: 2026-07-01 end_time: 2026-08-06 account: 1000000 benchmark: QQQ exchange_kwargs: codes: AAPL,MSFT,TSLA,QQQ,IVV,SMH,TLT,IBIT,MCHI,AIQ deal_price: $close freq: day open_cost: 0.0005 close_cost: 0.0015 min_cost: 5.0 risk_analysis_freq: 1d