# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Tune run 3 (NEXT run): 5-day label + clean 10-name universe. # # Baseline (exp 1 / run f29f5446): # IC 0.071, ICIR 0.17, Rank IC 0.014, Rank ICIR 0.03 -> ranking ~ coin flip # valid l2 best at round 0 and never improved (early-stopped ~50 rounds, overfit) # backtest: strategy +4.9% ann (raw) vs equal-weight universe +89.2% ann # (benchmark was unset -> qlib used equal-weight), excess w/ cost -94.0% ann, # IR -2.23, max DD -18.9%. topk=2, 24 trades/27 days, $11.1k cost (1.1% of $1M), # ending book ~97.5% in AAPL+IBIT (two names, both ~49%). # # PRIMARY LEVER (change one thing, everything else held at baseline): # label: 1-day next return -> 5-day forward return # "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1". # Rationale: Rank ICIR 0.03 is the binding constraint - a topk book's return # is bounded by ranking quality, and no backtest tuning fixes a non-existent # ranking. The retained TA features (rsi_14, macd_hist, ema_20, volume, # stoch, aroon) are momentum/mean-reversion proxies that predict multi-day # drift, not overnight noise; and the avg holding in the baseline book was # several days, so a 1-day label mismatches the holding horizon. # # SUPPORTING (kept minimal, flagged for attribution): # - universe 17 -> 10: drop leveraged/vol/cash names (VXX, USO, SLV, BIL) # and near-duplicate index baskets (GPIQ, QQQE, KTEC). 17 names were really # ~8 independent betas (QQQ/QQQE/IVV/SMH/AIQ overlap heavily). # - topk 2 -> 5, n_drop 1 -> 2: stop the 2-name lottery, cut per-name turnover. # - benchmark: unset -> QQQ (a real index ETF the universe tracks; the # "excess return" vs equal-weight of a 17-name universe is misleading). # - model: explicitly num_boost_round 1000 + early_stopping_rounds 50 so the # round count is actually controlled (baseline's n_estimators: 200 was a # no-op, swallowed into lgb params; rounds were the 1000 default). # Hyperparameters otherwise identical to baseline (lr 0.05, num_leaves 15, # reg 0.01/0.01) for a clean label A/B. # # Trigger into a NEW experiment (do not pollute exp 1): # rd_run_workflow config_path=tac-qlib/workflows/tune_run3_label5d_clean_universe.yaml \ # experiment_name=tac-rd-tune # ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- {%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %} qlib_init: provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}" region: us expression_cache: null dataset_cache: null calendar_provider: class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider kwargs: lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}" market: US instrument_provider: class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider kwargs: lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}" market: US markets: {} feature_provider: class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider kwargs: lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}" market: US exp_manager: class: MLflowExpManager module_path: qlib.workflow.expm kwargs: uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db" default_exp_name: "tac-rd-tune" task: model: class: LGBModel module_path: qlib.contrib.model.gbdt kwargs: loss: mse learning_rate: 0.05 num_leaves: 15 num_boost_round: 1000 early_stopping_rounds: 50 colsample_bytree: 0.8 subsample: 0.8 subsample_freq: 1 reg_alpha: 0.01 reg_lambda: 0.01 seed: 2026 dataset: class: DatasetH module_path: qlib.data.dataset kwargs: handler: class: TACHandler module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler kwargs: instruments: AAPL,MSFT,TSLA,QQQ,IVV,SMH,TLT,IBIT,MCHI,AIQ start_time: 2000-01-03 end_time: 2026-08-06 fit_start_time: 2026-03-01 fit_end_time: 2026-05-31 freq: day lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}" market: US label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1" segments: train: [2026-03-01, 2026-05-31] valid: [2026-06-01, 2026-06-30] test: [2026-07-01, 2026-08-06] record: - class: SignalRecord module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp kwargs: {} - class: SigAnaRecord module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp kwargs: ana_long_short: true ann_scaler: 252 - class: PortAnaRecord module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp kwargs: config: strategy: class: TopkDropoutStrategy module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy kwargs: signal: "" topk: 5 n_drop: 2 only_tradable: true risk_degree: 0.95 backtest: start_time: 2026-07-01 end_time: 2026-08-06 account: 1000000 benchmark: QQQ exchange_kwargs: codes: AAPL,MSFT,TSLA,QQQ,IVV,SMH,TLT,IBIT,MCHI,AIQ deal_price: $close freq: day open_cost: 0.0005 close_cost: 0.0015 min_cost: 5.0 risk_analysis_freq: 1d