# QUEUE-18 — OptimalStopControl clean re-test vs TopkDropout (exp 13/14 claim). # CLAIMS.md HYPOTHESIS: "TopkDropout beats stochastic-control OptimalStopControl on # the ensemble signal" — exp 13/14 were pre-clean-lake; never re-tested post-reset. # Same compact signal as the exp-26 reference; ONLY the strategy changes to # OptimalStopControl with exp-13 params (entry 0.85 / exit 0.7 / hold 10 / sl -0.08). # PREREQUISITE: tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/optimal_stop.py must be synced to the venv # site-packages snapshot before running (see /app/AGENTS.md). # Acceptance: TopkDropout net_IR >= stop-control net_IR; document cost drag of both. # Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=/experiments/queue/workflows/q18_optstop.yaml \ # experiment_name=tac-rd-q18-optstop {%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %} {%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %} {%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %} qlib_init: provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}" region: us expression_cache: null dataset_cache: null calendar_provider: class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US } instrument_provider: class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} } feature_provider: class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US } exp_manager: class: MLflowExpManager module_path: qlib.workflow.expm kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q18-optstop" } task: model: class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble kwargs: loss: mse learning_rate: 0.02 num_leaves: 31 n_estimators: 3000 num_boost_round: 3000 early_stopping_rounds: 200 min_data_in_leaf: 20 lambda_l2: 0.5 colsample_bytree: 0.8 subsample: 0.8 subsample_freq: 1 reg_alpha: 0.1 reg_lambda: 1.0 seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123" dataset: class: DatasetH module_path: qlib.data.dataset kwargs: handler: class: TACHandler module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler kwargs: instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}" start_time: 2015-01-03 end_time: 2026-08-10 fit_start_time: 2016-01-04 fit_end_time: 2025-09-01 freq: day lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}" market: US label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1" feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}" infer_processors: - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } } - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} } - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} } - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } } - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} } segments: train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01] valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03] test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10] record: - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} } - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } } - class: PortAnaRecord module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp kwargs: config: strategy: class: OptimalStopControl module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.optimal_stop kwargs: { signal: "", topk: 10, entry_pct: 0.85, exit_pct: 0.7, max_hold_days: 10, min_hold_days: 2, sl: -0.08 } backtest: start_time: 2026-01-04 end_time: 2026-08-10 account: 1000000 benchmark: SPY exchange_kwargs: codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}" deal_price: $close freq: day open_cost: 0.0005 close_cost: 0.0015 min_cost: 5.0 risk_analysis_freq: 1d