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zhaoli b296668ff5 finish experiment 56 (exp/56-window-staleness-isolation-the-m2-sharpe) 2026-08-20 11:42:18 +00:00
zhaoli f4f6e9291b start experiment 56 (exp/56-window-staleness-isolation-the-m2-sharpe) 2026-08-20 11:36:19 +00:00
zhaoli f4ed5e42fe finish experiment 55 (exp/55-adaptive-short-window-retrain-test-the-4) 2026-08-20 11:35:04 +00:00
zhaoli 81ee9f1a6e start experiment 55 (exp/55-adaptive-short-window-retrain-test-the-4) 2026-08-20 11:16:30 +00:00
zhaoli 1b0a3be605 finish experiment 54 (exp/54-walk-forward-transfer-test-m2-sharpe22-o) 2026-08-20 11:10:05 +00:00
zhaoli 7b77e23112 exp 54: snapshot custom qlib code 2026-08-20 10:19:52 +00:00
zhaoli c6f1e1462b start experiment 54 (exp/54-walk-forward-transfer-test-m2-sharpe22-o) 2026-08-20 10:19:21 +00:00
zhaoli 46a9aa7b61 finish experiment 53 (exp/53-walk-forward-re-validation-of-m2-sharpe2) 2026-08-20 09:50:50 +00:00
zhaoli 9ccaef3fbb exp 53: snapshot custom qlib code 2026-08-20 09:42:54 +00:00
zhaoli 60df47d5db start experiment 53 (exp/53-walk-forward-re-validation-of-m2-sharpe2) 2026-08-20 09:41:45 +00:00
zhaoli 7cd2d91218 finish experiment 52 (exp/52-walk-forward-re-validation-of-the-3-best) 2026-08-20 09:25:18 +00:00
zhaoli e1781f606b exp 52: snapshot custom qlib code 2026-08-20 08:50:48 +00:00
zhaoli 336fa676b6 exp 52: add 9 walk-forward workflow yamls (3 configs x 2024/2025/2026) 2026-08-20 08:50:45 +00:00
zhaoli 01292ff21e start experiment 52 (exp/52-walk-forward-re-validation-of-the-3-best) 2026-08-20 08:49:23 +00:00
zhaoli 875222a85a exp 14: enhanced stochastic-control allocation - workflow YAMLs (A: TopkDropout baseline, B: OptimalStopControlV2) 2026-08-14 14:46:30 +00:00
zhaoli 32477c7bb8 exp 12: isolation ensemble workflow yaml (ablate-B features + full history) + finish record 2026-08-14 05:37:13 +00:00
zhaoli e657c58758 start exp 9 (sp5d-feature-family-ablation): baseline all-24 + generic-only 19 workflow YAMLs 2026-08-13 04:32:30 +00:00
46 changed files with 2626 additions and 918 deletions
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@@ -1,48 +0,0 @@
#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""Precompute the signal-quality gate series and save to pickle.
Usage:
python precompute_signal_quality_gate.py <pred_path> <output_path> [topk] [lookback] [threshold]
Example:
python precompute_signal_quality_gate.py \
/home/data/lake/mlruns/49/34165f27e4a34378ad54843a079a78c0/artifacts/pred.pkl \
/app/experiments/book/data/signal_quality_gate/sq_gate_5d_0.50.pkl \
10 5 0.5
"""
import sys
import pickle
from pathlib import Path
# Add tac-qlib to path
sys.path.insert(0, "/app/tac-qlib")
from tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_quality_gate import compute_signal_quality_gate
if __name__ == "__main__":
if len(sys.argv) < 3:
print(__doc__)
sys.exit(1)
pred_path = sys.argv[1]
output_path = sys.argv[2]
topk = int(sys.argv[3]) if len(sys.argv) > 3 else 10
lookback = int(sys.argv[4]) if len(sys.argv) > 4 else 5
threshold = float(sys.argv[5]) if len(sys.argv) > 5 else 0.5
lake_root = "/home/data/lake"
print(f"Computing signal-quality gate: topk={topk}, lookback={lookback}, threshold={threshold}")
gate = compute_signal_quality_gate(
pred_path,
lake_root=lake_root,
topk=topk,
lookback=lookback,
threshold=threshold,
)
print(f"Gate: {gate.sum()}/{len(gate)} days open ({gate.mean():.1%})")
with open(output_path, "wb") as f:
pickle.dump(gate, f)
print(f"Saved to {output_path}")
-115
View File
@@ -1,115 +0,0 @@
# Signal-quality gate backtest for 2021
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_ou_zscore,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
{# Gate computed on-the-fly from signal + lake close prices #}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs:
uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-sq-gate-2021"
task:
model:
class: LGBModel
module_path: qlib.contrib.model.gbdt
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.05
num_leaves: 15
n_estimators: 200
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.01
reg_lambda: 0.01
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2021-12-31
fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
fit_end_time: 2021-01-03
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
infer_processors:
- class: DropAllNaN
kwargs: {}
- class: ProcessInf
kwargs: {}
- class: CSRankNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: ZScoreNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: Fillna
kwargs: {}
segments:
train: [2015-01-03, 2020-09-01]
valid: [2020-09-03, 2021-01-03]
test: [2021-01-04, 2021-12-31]
record:
- class: SignalRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs: {}
- class: SigAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: SignalQualityGateStrategy
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_quality_gate
kwargs:
signal: "<PRED>"
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
gate_topk: 10
gate_lookback: 5
gate_threshold: 0.5
gate_start: "2015-01-03"
gate_end: "2021-12-31"
topk: 10
n_drop: 1
only_tradable: true
risk_degree: 0.95
backtest:
start_time: 2021-01-04
end_time: 2021-12-31
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
-115
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@@ -1,115 +0,0 @@
# Signal-quality gate backtest for 2024
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_ou_zscore,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
{# Gate computed on-the-fly from signal + lake close prices #}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs:
uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-sq-gate-2024"
task:
model:
class: LGBModel
module_path: qlib.contrib.model.gbdt
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.05
num_leaves: 15
n_estimators: 200
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.01
reg_lambda: 0.01
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2024-12-31
fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
fit_end_time: 2024-01-03
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
infer_processors:
- class: DropAllNaN
kwargs: {}
- class: ProcessInf
kwargs: {}
- class: CSRankNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: ZScoreNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: Fillna
kwargs: {}
segments:
train: [2015-01-03, 2023-09-01]
valid: [2023-09-03, 2024-01-03]
test: [2024-01-02, 2024-12-31]
record:
- class: SignalRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs: {}
- class: SigAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: SignalQualityGateStrategy
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_quality_gate
kwargs:
signal: "<PRED>"
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
gate_topk: 10
gate_lookback: 5
gate_threshold: 0.5
gate_start: "2015-01-03"
gate_end: "2024-12-31"
topk: 10
n_drop: 1
only_tradable: true
risk_degree: 0.95
backtest:
start_time: 2024-01-02
end_time: 2024-12-31
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
+3 -9
View File
@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
# TradeAC custom-qlib-code snapshot (auto-generated)
# parent repo HEAD : e952feed0a66a20439f4f24ad5524233429cd0c3
# parent repo HEAD : f4f6e9291b1bdc69373d06710aa5f9aa396e900c
# tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib
# tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data
# per-file hashes (git hash-object):
@@ -15,17 +15,11 @@
74d0da348cbcc3700c96b6f4fe4391488e61efc5 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/__pycache__/rank_gbdt.cpython-312.pyc
d3f051f3a8650c42fedc7b367b966f7c74fb5789 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/rank_ensemble.py
d03e6611338918d4aac5eea4adf26f85a3763652 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/rank_gbdt.py
2c2f167b693f4366a769998e3c9d4804f29e31e0 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__init__.py
f9cd9ab729e3248542ccc490af7adc2e51c71914 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
cd3133cfbd2556b25c106e39ae97fb128df0e326 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/ic_gate.cpython-312.pyc
b68a974a0bc87a279caed90cf2be4d7e78f9e59f tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__init__.py
c29e45e562256bf786c36f91a971b097467276e9 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
6dd1c568a2961842793674390d5abffd1a0e71b8 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/optimal_stop.cpython-312.pyc
03b5e4d80da00800f1b108bee0735d3d18d856d1 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/regime_gate.cpython-312.pyc
a6a1c21ab71b62080830df45c4784b73c1531036 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/signal_quality_gate.cpython-312.pyc
755e3b139496a5e22b0328db45c8199c33029fbc tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/weekly_rebalance.cpython-312.pyc
519a1f4c05dbe0ac018ab8b779eb33d53b4dd545 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/ic_gate.py
79aaad9e39fcc740a773f4f63c512ce1086cfde0 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/optimal_stop.py
7bcee5f0b09cfa721440f1354f16f2dd9a112b12 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/regime_gate.py
16ab80b731aab6d8bb818525615d77c2d1fcb0c8 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/signal_quality_gate.py
fe60bacdfedd48617863be31f24b7c7daebfac5a tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/weekly_rebalance.py
92e6e90eb0cd0a25142034560f27adb6b705b1a8 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__init__.py
316bf4aa160cc8d15929ea648be03f4b4999667d tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
@@ -1,11 +1,5 @@
from .ic_gate import ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy # noqa: F401
from .optimal_stop import OptimalStopControl # noqa: F401
from .regime_gate import RegimeGateTopkDropoutStrategy # noqa: F401
from .weekly_rebalance import WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy # noqa: F401
__all__ = [
"ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy",
"OptimalStopControl",
"RegimeGateTopkDropoutStrategy",
"WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy",
]
__all__ = ["ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy", "OptimalStopControl", "WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy"]
@@ -1,215 +0,0 @@
"""Regime-gate TopkDropout strategy.
Subclass of ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy`` that
holds the book (issues NO orders) while a regime detector says the market is in
an unfavorable state. When the gate is open it behaves exactly like the
reference TopkDropoutStrategy.
Three detector types are supported (all causal — no lookahead):
* ``dispersion``: cross-sectional standard deviation of 22-day rolling returns
across the universe. Gate closes when CS dispersion < threshold (low
dispersion means the spread between winners and losers is too narrow for
TopkDropout to exploit).
* ``vol``: cross-sectional mean of 22-day rolling realized volatility. Gate
closes when avg vol is outside a band ``[vol_low, vol_high]`` (strategy
needs moderate vol — too calm or too turbulent both hurt).
* ``hmm``: pre-computed HMM posterior for regime 1 (``sp_hmm_p_regime1``).
Gate closes when posterior < threshold (model is not confident the calm
regime is active).
The gate is provided as a precomputed ``pd.Series`` of booleans indexed by
datetime (True = trade allowed). The companion ``compute_regime_gate``
function builds this series from lake bars; call it once before backtesting
and pass the result as the ``regime_gate`` parameter.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import pandas as pd
from qlib.backtest.decision import TradeDecisionWO
from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
__all__ = ["RegimeGateTopkDropoutStrategy", "compute_regime_gate"]
class RegimeGateTopkDropoutStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
"""TopkDropout with a regime-gate circuit breaker.
Parameters
----------
topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
regime_gate : pd.Series — precomputed per-date gate (bool indexed by
datetime). True = trade allowed, False = no orders. Missing dates
default to open (trade allowed).
"""
def __init__(self, *, regime_gate=None, **kwargs):
super().__init__(**kwargs)
self._regime_gate = regime_gate
def _gate_open(self, trade_start_time) -> bool:
if self._regime_gate is None:
return True
ts = pd.Timestamp(trade_start_time)
known = self._regime_gate[self._regime_gate.index <= ts]
if len(known):
return bool(known.iloc[-1])
return True # default open if no history yet
def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
trade_start_time, _ = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
if not self._gate_open(trade_start_time):
return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
return super().generate_trade_decision(execute_result)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Precomputation helper
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def compute_regime_gate(
detector: str,
threshold: float = 0.0,
*,
lake_root: str = "",
market: str = "US",
start: str = "2015-01-03",
end: str = "2026-08-19",
vol_low: float = 0.0,
vol_high: float = 999.0,
hmm_field: str = "sp_hmm_p_regime1",
) -> pd.Series:
"""Build a per-date regime gate series from lake bars.
Parameters
----------
detector : str — ``"dispersion"``, ``"vol"``, or ``"hmm"``.
threshold : float — for ``dispersion``: min CS dispersion to allow trading.
For ``hmm``: min HMM posterior to allow trading.
Ignored for ``vol`` (uses ``vol_low``/``vol_high`` band instead).
lake_root, market : str — lake location.
start, end : str — date window.
vol_low, vol_high : float — annualized vol band for the ``vol`` detector.
hmm_field : str — HMM feature column name for the ``hmm`` detector.
Returns
-------
pd.Series — bool, indexed by datetime. True = trade allowed.
"""
from tac_qlib.data.config import LakeConfig, resolve_lake_root
cfg = LakeConfig(resolve_lake_root(lake_root or None), market)
symbols = _universe_symbols(cfg)
close_df, vol_df = _load_daily_bars(symbols, cfg, start, end)
if close_df.empty:
return pd.Series(dtype=bool)
if detector == "dispersion":
return _dispersion_gate(close_df, threshold)
elif detector == "vol":
return _vol_gate(close_df, vol_low, vol_high)
elif detector == "hmm":
return _hmm_gate(cfg, symbols, threshold, start, end, hmm_field)
else:
raise ValueError(f"Unknown detector: {detector!r}")
def _universe_symbols(cfg) -> list:
"""Read symbols from the lake symbols.parquet."""
import pathlib
sp = cfg.lake_root / "symbols.parquet"
if sp.exists():
df = pd.read_parquet(sp)
col = "symbol" if "symbol" in df.columns else df.columns[0]
return sorted(df[col].astype(str).str.upper().tolist())
return []
def _load_daily_bars(symbols, cfg, start, end):
"""Load daily close prices for all symbols into a wide DataFrame."""
closes = {}
vols = {}
for sym in symbols:
p = cfg.bar_path("1d", sym)
if not p.exists():
continue
try:
df = pd.read_parquet(p)
except Exception:
continue
if not len(df):
continue
tcol = df["t"] if "t" in df.columns else df["date"]
ts = pd.to_datetime(tcol)
df = df.assign(_t=ts).set_index("_t").sort_index()
df = df.loc[start:end]
if len(df) < 22:
continue
closes[sym] = df["c"]
if "v" in df.columns:
vols[sym] = df["v"]
close_df = pd.DataFrame(closes)
vol_df = pd.DataFrame(vols) if vols else None
return close_df, vol_df
def _dispersion_gate(close_df, threshold):
"""Cross-sectional dispersion of 22-day rolling returns."""
if close_df.empty or close_df.shape[1] < 2:
return pd.Series(dtype=bool)
ret = close_df.pct_change(22)
cs_disp = ret.std(axis=1)
gate = cs_disp >= threshold
gate.iloc[:22] = True # warmup: allow trading
return gate
def _vol_gate(close_df, vol_low, vol_high):
"""Cross-sectional mean of 22-day rolling realized vol."""
if close_df.empty or close_df.shape[1] < 2:
return pd.Series(dtype=bool)
import numpy as np
log_ret = np.log(close_df / close_df.shift(1))
rv22 = log_ret.rolling(22).std() * (252 ** 0.5)
cs_mean_vol = rv22.mean(axis=1)
gate = (cs_mean_vol >= vol_low) & (cs_mean_vol <= vol_high)
gate.iloc[:22] = True # warmup
return gate
def _hmm_gate(cfg, symbols, threshold, start, end, hmm_field):
"""HMM regime posterior gate from persisted SP features."""
feat_root = cfg.lake_root / "features"
all_posteriors = {}
for sym in symbols:
# check both ta and sp family paths
for family in ("sp", "ta"):
p = feat_root / f"market=US" / f"timeframe=1d" / f"family={family}" / f"symbol={sym}.parquet"
if not p.exists():
continue
try:
df = pd.read_parquet(p)
except Exception:
continue
if hmm_field not in df.columns:
continue
tcol = df["t"] if "t" in df.columns else df["date"]
ts = pd.to_datetime(tcol)
s = pd.Series(df[hmm_field].values, index=ts, name=sym)
s = s.loc[start:end].dropna()
if len(s) > 0:
all_posteriors[sym] = s
break
if not all_posteriors:
# no HMM features found — default open
idx = pd.date_range(start, end, freq="B")
return pd.Series(True, index=idx)
post_df = pd.DataFrame(all_posteriors)
cs_mean = post_df.mean(axis=1)
gate = cs_mean >= threshold
return gate
@@ -1,301 +0,0 @@
"""Signal-quality gate TopkDropout strategy.
Subclass of ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy`` that
holds the book (issues NO orders) when the model's recent prediction accuracy
is below a threshold. When the gate is open it behaves exactly like the
reference TopkDropoutStrategy.
Unlike the regime gate (which asks "is the market calm?"), the signal-quality
gate asks "are my predictions accurate?" — and works across ALL years.
The gate is provided as a precomputed ``pd.Series`` of booleans indexed by
datetime (True = trade allowed). The companion ``compute_signal_quality_gate``
function builds this series from a pred.pkl and lake bars; call it once before
backtesting and pass the result as the ``signal_quality_gate`` parameter.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from qlib.backtest.decision import TradeDecisionWO
from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
__all__ = ["SignalQualityGateStrategy", "compute_signal_quality_gate"]
class SignalQualityGateStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
"""TopkDropout with signal-quality gate overlay.
When ``lake_root`` is provided the gate is computed on-the-fly from the
signal (``<PRED>``) and close prices — no precomputed gate file needed.
This ensures the gate matches the model that is actually generating the
predictions (critical when the model is retrained each year).
Parameters
----------
topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
signal_quality_gate : pd.Series — precomputed per-date gate (bool).
signal_quality_gate_path : str — path to pickled gate Series.
lake_root : str — lake root for on-the-fly gate computation (preferred).
gate_topk, gate_lookback, gate_threshold : int/float — gate params.
gate_start, gate_end : str — date window for loading close prices.
"""
def __init__(self, *, signal_quality_gate=None, signal_quality_gate_path=None,
lake_root=None, gate_topk=10, gate_lookback=5, gate_threshold=0.5,
gate_start="2015-01-03", gate_end="2026-08-19", **kwargs):
super().__init__(**kwargs)
self._sq_gate_computed = False
if signal_quality_gate is not None:
self._sq_gate = signal_quality_gate
self._sq_gate_computed = True
elif signal_quality_gate_path is not None:
import pickle
with open(signal_quality_gate_path, "rb") as f:
self._sq_gate = pickle.load(f)
self._sq_gate_computed = True
elif lake_root is not None:
self._sq_gate = None
self._lake_root = lake_root
self._gate_topk = gate_topk
self._gate_lookback = gate_lookback
self._gate_threshold = gate_threshold
self._gate_start = gate_start
self._gate_end = gate_end
else:
self._sq_gate = None
def _compute_gate_on_fly(self):
"""Compute gate from the signal (pred.pkl) and lake close prices."""
import pickle
from pathlib import Path
signal_path = self._signal
if not Path(signal_path).exists():
return
with open(signal_path, "rb") as f:
pred = pickle.load(f)
# Handle MultiIndex DataFrame -> unstack to wide
if isinstance(pred, pd.DataFrame) and isinstance(pred.index, pd.MultiIndex):
pred = pred.iloc[:, 0]
pred.index = pd.MultiIndex.from_arrays([
pd.to_datetime(pred.index.get_level_values(0)).normalize(),
pred.index.get_level_values(1)
])
pred = pred.unstack(level=1)
elif isinstance(pred, pd.DataFrame):
pred = pred.iloc[:, 0] if pred.shape[1] >= 1 else pred.squeeze()
pred.index = pd.to_datetime(pred.index).normalize()
# Load close prices from lake
close_df = _load_close_prices(self._lake_root, "US", self._gate_start, self._gate_end)
if close_df.empty:
return
ret_df = close_df.pct_change()
ret_df.index = pd.to_datetime(ret_df.index).normalize()
pred_dates = sorted(pred.index.unique())
if len(pred_dates) < 2:
self._sq_gate = pd.Series(True, index=pd.DatetimeIndex(pred_dates))
self._sq_gate_computed = True
return
hit_rates = {}
for i in range(1, len(pred_dates)):
day = pred_dates[i]
prev_day = pred_dates[i - 1]
try:
prev_scores = pred.loc[prev_day]
except KeyError:
continue
if isinstance(prev_scores, pd.DataFrame):
prev_scores = prev_scores.iloc[:, 0]
prev_scores = prev_scores.dropna().sort_values(ascending=False)
topk_syms = list(prev_scores.index[:self._gate_topk])
if day not in ret_df.index:
continue
today_ret = ret_df.loc[day]
topk_rets = today_ret.reindex(topk_syms).dropna()
if len(topk_rets) == 0:
continue
hit_rates[day] = (topk_rets > 0).sum() / len(topk_rets)
if not hit_rates:
self._sq_gate_computed = True
return
hr_series = pd.Series(hit_rates).sort_index()
rolling_hr = hr_series.rolling(self._gate_lookback, min_periods=1).mean()
gate = rolling_hr >= self._gate_threshold
gate.iloc[:self._gate_lookback] = True
self._sq_gate = gate
self._sq_gate_computed = True
def _gate_open(self, trade_start_time) -> bool:
if self._sq_gate is None:
return True
ts = pd.Timestamp(trade_start_time)
known = self._sq_gate[self._sq_gate.index <= ts]
if len(known):
return bool(known.iloc[-1])
return True # default open if no history yet
def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
if not self._sq_gate_computed:
self._compute_gate_on_fly()
trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
trade_start_time, _ = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
if not self._gate_open(trade_start_time):
return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
return super().generate_trade_decision(execute_result)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Precomputation helper
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def compute_signal_quality_gate(
pred_path: str,
*,
lake_root: str = "",
market: str = "US",
topk: int = 10,
lookback: int = 5,
threshold: float = 0.5,
start: str = "2015-01-03",
end: str = "2026-08-19",
) -> pd.Series:
"""Build a per-date signal-quality gate series from a pred.pkl and lake bars.
For each day, checks whether the model's topk picks from the previous day
had positive returns. Computes a rolling hit rate over ``lookback`` days
and opens the gate when hit rate >= ``threshold``.
Parameters
----------
pred_path : str — path to pred.pkl (from rd_train / rd_predict).
lake_root, market : str — lake location (for loading close prices).
topk : int — number of top picks to track for hit rate.
lookback : int — rolling window for hit rate computation.
threshold : float — hit rate threshold to keep trading.
start, end : str — date window for loading prices.
Returns
-------
pd.Series — bool, indexed by datetime. True = trade allowed.
"""
from pathlib import Path
import pickle
# Load pred.pkl
with open(pred_path, "rb") as f:
pred = pickle.load(f)
# Handle MultiIndex DataFrame (datetime, instrument) -> unstack to wide
if isinstance(pred, pd.DataFrame) and isinstance(pred.index, pd.MultiIndex):
pred = pred.iloc[:, 0] # take score column as Series
pred.index = pd.MultiIndex.from_arrays([
pd.to_datetime(pred.index.get_level_values(0)).normalize(),
pred.index.get_level_values(1)
])
# Unstack to wide: dates x instruments
pred = pred.unstack(level=1)
elif isinstance(pred, pd.DataFrame):
pred = pred.iloc[:, 0] if pred.shape[1] >= 1 else pred.squeeze()
pred.index = pd.to_datetime(pred.index).normalize()
# Load close prices from lake
close_df = _load_close_prices(lake_root, market, start, end)
if close_df.empty:
return pd.Series(dtype=bool)
ret_df = close_df.pct_change()
ret_df.index = pd.to_datetime(ret_df.index).normalize()
# Get sorted unique prediction dates
pred_dates = sorted(pred.index.unique())
if len(pred_dates) < 2:
return pd.Series(True, index=pd.DatetimeIndex(pred_dates))
# Compute hit rates
hit_rates = {}
for i in range(1, len(pred_dates)):
day = pred_dates[i]
# Get yesterday's topk
prev_day = pred_dates[i - 1]
try:
prev_scores = pred.loc[prev_day]
except KeyError:
continue
if isinstance(prev_scores, pd.DataFrame):
prev_scores = prev_scores.iloc[:, 0]
prev_scores = prev_scores.dropna().sort_values(ascending=False)
topk_syms = list(prev_scores.index[:topk])
# Get today's returns
if day not in ret_df.index:
continue
today_ret = ret_df.loc[day]
topk_rets = today_ret.reindex(topk_syms).dropna()
if len(topk_rets) == 0:
continue
hit_rates[day] = (topk_rets > 0).sum() / len(topk_rets)
if not hit_rates:
return pd.Series(dtype=bool)
hr_series = pd.Series(hit_rates).sort_index()
# Rolling hit rate
rolling_hr = hr_series.rolling(lookback, min_periods=1).mean()
# Gate is open when rolling hit rate >= threshold
gate = rolling_hr >= threshold
gate.iloc[:lookback] = True # warmup: allow trading
return gate
def _load_close_prices(lake_root, market, start, end):
"""Load daily close prices for all symbols into a wide DataFrame."""
from pathlib import Path
lake = Path(lake_root)
symbols_parquet = lake / "symbols.parquet"
if not symbols_parquet.exists():
return pd.DataFrame()
df = pd.read_parquet(symbols_parquet)
col = "symbol" if "symbol" in df.columns else df.columns[0]
symbols = sorted(df[col].astype(str).str.upper().tolist())
closes = {}
for sym in symbols:
p = lake / "market=US" / "timeframe=1d" / f"symbol={sym}.parquet"
if not p.exists():
continue
try:
bar = pd.read_parquet(p)
except Exception:
continue
if not len(bar):
continue
tcol = "t" if "t" in bar.columns else "date"
ts = pd.to_datetime(bar[tcol])
bar = bar.assign(_t=ts).set_index("_t").sort_index()
bar = bar.loc[start:end]
if len(bar) < 10:
continue
closes[sym] = bar["c"] if "c" in bar.columns else bar["close"]
return pd.DataFrame(closes)
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Signal-quality gate: TopkDropout gated by rolling hit-rate of topk picks.
# ABLATION A (baseline): LightGBM with RankIC early-stopping on the 50-ETF SP-5d
# panel, using ALL 24 sp_* feature columns (ou,hmm,jump,har,trend,hurst,
# signature). Copy of the canonical workflow_lgb_sp5d_rankic.yaml with a
# distinct experiment name so the ablation runs are isolated.
#
# 1. Compute the gate: python precompute_signal_quality_gate.py <pred.pkl> <gate.pkl>
# 2. Run this workflow: rd_run_workflow config_path=<this yaml> experiment_name=<exp>
#
# The strategy loads the precomputed gate from signal_quality_gate_path.
# When hit rate >= threshold, trade; otherwise, go to cash.
# Run:
# rd_run_workflow config_path=tac-qlib/workflows/ablate_baseline_all_sp_fields.yaml \
# experiment_name=tac-rd-rank-ablate
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_ou_zscore,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
{%- set GATE_PATH = "/app/experiments/book/data/signal_quality_gate/sq_gate_5d_0.50.pkl" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
@@ -40,22 +40,27 @@ qlib_init:
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs:
uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-sq-gate"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-rank-ablate"
task:
model:
class: LGBModel
module_path: qlib.contrib.model.gbdt
class: RankICLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_gbdt
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.05
num_leaves: 15
n_estimators: 200
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.01
reg_lambda: 0.01
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seed: 42
dataset:
class: DatasetH
@@ -105,13 +110,12 @@ task:
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: SignalQualityGateStrategy
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_quality_gate
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs:
signal: "<PRED>"
signal_quality_gate_path: "{{ GATE_PATH }}"
topk: 10
n_drop: 1
n_drop: 2
only_tradable: true
risk_degree: 0.95
backtest:
@@ -1,44 +1,67 @@
# Signal-quality gate backtest for 2026
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
# ABLATION B (generic-only): same panel/model as the baseline, but feature
# fields restricted to the model-free / generic stochastic-process families
# (jump,har,trend,hurst,signature). Drops the model-specific ou (OU/AR-1
# half-life) and hmm (2-state regime) families to test whether the generic
# families alone dominate the rank dimension.
#
# Run:
# rd_run_workflow config_path=tac-qlib/workflows/ablate_generic_only_sp_fields.yaml \
# experiment_name=tac-rd-rank-ablate
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_ou_zscore,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
{# Gate computed on-the-fly from signal + lake close prices #}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
markets: {}
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs:
uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-sq-gate-2026"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-rank-ablate"
task:
model:
class: LGBModel
module_path: qlib.contrib.model.gbdt
class: RankICLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_gbdt
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.05
num_leaves: 15
n_estimators: 200
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.01
reg_lambda: 0.01
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seed: 42
dataset:
class: DatasetH
@@ -52,7 +75,7 @@ task:
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-10
fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
fit_end_time: 2026-01-03
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
@@ -80,24 +103,20 @@ task:
kwargs: {}
- class: SigAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 }
kwargs:
ana_long_short: true
ann_scaler: 252
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: SignalQualityGateStrategy
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_quality_gate
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs:
signal: "<PRED>"
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
gate_topk: 10
gate_lookback: 5
gate_threshold: 0.5
gate_start: "2015-01-03"
gate_end: "2026-08-19"
topk: 10
n_drop: 1
n_drop: 2
only_tradable: true
risk_degree: 0.95
backtest:
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2024
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2025-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
test: ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2024-01-02"
end_time: "2024-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2025
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
test: ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2025-01-02"
end_time: "2025-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2026
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-08-19"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
test: ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2026-01-04"
end_time: "2026-08-19"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2024
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2025-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
test: ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2024-01-02"
end_time: "2024-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2025
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
test: ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2025-01-02"
end_time: "2025-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2026
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-08-19"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
test: ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2026-01-04"
end_time: "2026-08-19"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2024
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2025-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
test: ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2024-01-02"
end_time: "2024-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2025
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
test: ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2025-01-02"
end_time: "2025-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2026
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-08-19"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
test: ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2026-01-04"
end_time: "2026-08-19"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Walk-forward transfer test: m2-sharpe22 / test 2021 (trace exp 54)
# Label-regime match to 2026 (psi 0.039). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-2021-2023" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2022-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2020-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2020-08-31"]
valid: ["2020-09-01", "2020-12-31"]
test: ["2021-01-04", "2021-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2021-01-04"
end_time: "2021-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Walk-forward transfer test: m2-sharpe22 / test 2023 (trace exp 54)
# Best label-regime match to 2026 (psi 0.028). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-2021-2023" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2024-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2022-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2022-08-31"]
valid: ["2022-09-01", "2022-12-30"]
test: ["2023-01-03", "2023-12-29"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2023-01-03"
end_time: "2023-12-29"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Walk-forward: m2-sharpe22 / test 2024 (trace exp 53, ref exp32 c7c12228 on cleaned lake)
# Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-3windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2025-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
test: ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2024-01-02"
end_time: "2024-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Walk-forward: m2-sharpe22 / test 2025 (trace exp 53, ref exp32 c7c12228 on cleaned lake)
# Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-3windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
test: ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2025-01-02"
end_time: "2025-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Walk-forward: m2-sharpe22 / test 2026 (trace exp 53, ref exp32 c7c12228 on cleaned lake)
# Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5. Window matches reference exp32 exactly.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-3windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-08-10"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
test: ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-10"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2026-01-04"
end_time: "2026-08-10"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2021 (trace exp 55) — 1y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-1y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2022-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2019-08-30"
fit_end_time: "2020-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2019-08-30", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2019-08-30", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2019-08-30", "2020-08-31"]
valid: ["2020-09-01", "2020-12-31"]
test: ["2021-01-04", "2021-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2021-01-04"
end_time: "2021-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2023 (trace exp 55) — 1y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-1y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2024-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2021-08-31"
fit_end_time: "2022-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2021-08-31", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2021-08-31", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2021-08-31", "2022-08-31"]
valid: ["2022-09-01", "2022-12-30"]
test: ["2023-01-03", "2023-12-29"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2023-01-03"
end_time: "2023-12-29"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2024 (trace exp 55) — 1y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-1y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2025-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2022-08-31"
fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2022-08-31", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2022-08-31", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2022-08-31", "2023-08-31"]
valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
test: ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2024-01-02"
end_time: "2024-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2025 (trace exp 55) — 1y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-1y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2023-08-31"
fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2023-08-31", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2023-08-31", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2023-08-31", "2024-08-30"]
valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
test: ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2025-01-02"
end_time: "2025-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2026 (trace exp 55) — 1y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-1y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-08-10"
fit_start_time: "2024-09-03"
fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2024-09-03", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2024-09-03", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2024-09-03", "2025-09-01"]
valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
test: ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-10"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2026-01-04"
end_time: "2026-08-10"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2021 (trace exp 55) — 2y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-2y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2022-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2018-08-31"
fit_end_time: "2020-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2018-08-31", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2018-08-31", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2018-08-31", "2020-08-31"]
valid: ["2020-09-01", "2020-12-31"]
test: ["2021-01-04", "2021-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2021-01-04"
end_time: "2021-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2023 (trace exp 55) — 2y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-2y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2024-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2020-08-31"
fit_end_time: "2022-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2020-08-31", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2020-08-31", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2020-08-31", "2022-08-31"]
valid: ["2022-09-01", "2022-12-30"]
test: ["2023-01-03", "2023-12-29"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2023-01-03"
end_time: "2023-12-29"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2024 (trace exp 55) — 2y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-2y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2025-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2021-08-31"
fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2021-08-31", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2021-08-31", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2021-08-31", "2023-08-31"]
valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
test: ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2024-01-02"
end_time: "2024-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2025 (trace exp 55) — 2y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-2y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2022-08-31"
fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2022-08-31", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2022-08-31", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2022-08-31", "2024-08-30"]
valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
test: ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2025-01-02"
end_time: "2025-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2026 (trace exp 55) — 2y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-2y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-08-10"
fit_start_time: "2023-09-01"
fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2023-09-01", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2023-09-01", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2023-09-01", "2025-09-01"]
valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
test: ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-10"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2026-01-04"
end_time: "2026-08-10"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -1,44 +1,74 @@
# Signal-quality gate backtest for 2023
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
# ISOLATION: multi-seed RankIC ensemble, ablate-B generic-only feature set.
#
# Isolates the ensemble effect on the SP-5d rank signal. Same panel, segments,
# history (full backfilled 2016+) and feature set as the exp-9 ablate-B winner
# (generic-only sp_* families: jump,har,trend,hurst,signature), but replaces the
# single RankICLGBModel with a 5-seed RankICEnsembleLGBModel (42,7,2026,99,123)
# that averages per-day predictions.
#
# Differs from exp-15 (tac-rd-rank-ensemble, mlflow exp 15) ONLY by dropping the
# TA subset (rsi_14,roc_10,macd_hist,willr_14,atr_14) and the inter-asset xr_*
# features, so any change vs exp-15 is attributable to the feature set alone,
# and any change vs exp-9 is attributable to the ensemble + full history alone.
#
# Run:
# rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp12_isolation_ensemble.yaml \
# experiment_name=tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_ou_zscore,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
{# Gate computed on-the-fly from signal + lake close prices #}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
markets: {}
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs:
uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-sq-gate-2023"
uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated"
task:
model:
class: LGBModel
module_path: qlib.contrib.model.gbdt
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.05
num_leaves: 15
n_estimators: 200
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.01
reg_lambda: 0.01
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
@@ -50,9 +80,9 @@ task:
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2023-12-29
fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
fit_end_time: 2023-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-14
fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
@@ -70,9 +100,9 @@ task:
- class: Fillna
kwargs: {}
segments:
train: [2015-01-03, 2022-09-01]
valid: [2022-09-03, 2023-01-03]
test: [2023-01-03, 2023-12-29]
train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
record:
- class: SignalRecord
@@ -80,29 +110,25 @@ task:
kwargs: {}
- class: SigAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 }
kwargs:
ana_long_short: true
ann_scaler: 252
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: SignalQualityGateStrategy
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_quality_gate
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs:
signal: "<PRED>"
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
gate_topk: 10
gate_lookback: 5
gate_threshold: 0.5
gate_start: "2015-01-03"
gate_end: "2023-12-29"
topk: 10
n_drop: 1
n_drop: 2
only_tradable: true
risk_degree: 0.95
backtest:
start_time: 2023-01-03
end_time: 2023-12-29
start_time: 2026-01-04
end_time: 2026-08-10
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
@@ -1,44 +1,69 @@
# Signal-quality gate backtest for 2025
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
# EXP 14 - Strategy A (baseline): reference model + TopkDropout.
#
# Model = RankICEnsembleLGBModel (5-seed RankIC-early-stopped LGB), the class
# wired by the tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated reference (run 0cea66d9...).
# Strategy = TopkDropout topk=10 n_drop=2 risk_degree=0.95 (the reference's own
# recorded backtest strategy), so this run reproduces the reference baseline on
# the same 50-ETF SP-5d panel.
#
# Run:
# rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/a_topk_baseline.yaml \
# experiment_name=tac-rd-optstop-v2
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_ou_zscore,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
{# Gate computed on-the-fly from signal + lake close prices #}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
markets: {}
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs:
uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-sq-gate-2025"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-optstop-v2"
task:
model:
class: LGBModel
module_path: qlib.contrib.model.gbdt
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.05
num_leaves: 15
n_estimators: 200
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.01
reg_lambda: 0.01
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
@@ -50,9 +75,9 @@ task:
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2025-12-31
fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
fit_end_time: 2026-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-14
fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
@@ -70,9 +95,9 @@ task:
- class: Fillna
kwargs: {}
segments:
train: [2015-01-03, 2025-09-01]
train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
test: [2025-01-02, 2025-12-31]
test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
record:
- class: SignalRecord
@@ -80,29 +105,25 @@ task:
kwargs: {}
- class: SigAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 }
kwargs:
ana_long_short: true
ann_scaler: 252
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: SignalQualityGateStrategy
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_quality_gate
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs:
signal: "<PRED>"
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
gate_topk: 10
gate_lookback: 5
gate_threshold: 0.5
gate_start: "2015-01-03"
gate_end: "2025-12-31"
topk: 10
n_drop: 1
n_drop: 2
only_tradable: true
risk_degree: 0.95
backtest:
start_time: 2025-01-02
end_time: 2025-12-31
start_time: 2026-01-04
end_time: 2026-08-10
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
@@ -0,0 +1,149 @@
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
# EXP 14 - Strategy B (enhanced): reference model + OptimalStopControlV2.
#
# Model = RankICEnsembleLGBModel (5-seed RankIC-early-stopped LGB), identical to
# Strategy A. Strategy = OptimalStopControlV2 (tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.
# optimal_stop_v2) with the controls that address OptimalStopControl's documented
# weaknesses:
# - turnover / cost control: rebalance_band=0.05 (skip small rebalances),
# cooldown_days=3 (no whipsaw re-entries), max_turnover=0.30 (cap daily
# traded notional, priority exits > opens > rebalances)
# - robust thresholds (no valid-window overfit): entry 0.85 / exit 0.70 /
# max_hold 10 / min_hold 2 / sl -0.08
# Sizing = equal-weight control (risk_degree fraction of total value split
# across targets) - the "proper allocation" that replaces cash-heuristic sizing.
#
# Run:
# rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/b_optstop_v2.yaml \
# experiment_name=tac-rd-optstop-v2
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
markets: {}
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs:
uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-optstop-v2"
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-14
fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
infer_processors:
- class: DropAllNaN
kwargs: {}
- class: ProcessInf
kwargs: {}
- class: CSRankNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: ZScoreNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: Fillna
kwargs: {}
segments:
train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
record:
- class: SignalRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs: {}
- class: SigAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
ana_long_short: true
ann_scaler: 252
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: OptimalStopControlV2
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.optimal_stop_v2
kwargs:
signal: "<PRED>"
topk: 10
entry_pct: 0.85
exit_pct: 0.70
max_hold_days: 10
min_hold_days: 2
sl: -0.08
risk_degree: 0.95
notional: 20000
rebalance_band: 0.05
cooldown_days: 3
max_turnover: 0.30
backtest:
start_time: 2026-01-04
end_time: 2026-08-10
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d