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Author SHA1 Message Date
zhaoli b296668ff5 finish experiment 56 (exp/56-window-staleness-isolation-the-m2-sharpe) 2026-08-20 11:42:18 +00:00
zhaoli f4f6e9291b start experiment 56 (exp/56-window-staleness-isolation-the-m2-sharpe) 2026-08-20 11:36:19 +00:00
zhaoli f4ed5e42fe finish experiment 55 (exp/55-adaptive-short-window-retrain-test-the-4) 2026-08-20 11:35:04 +00:00
zhaoli 81ee9f1a6e start experiment 55 (exp/55-adaptive-short-window-retrain-test-the-4) 2026-08-20 11:16:30 +00:00
zhaoli 1b0a3be605 finish experiment 54 (exp/54-walk-forward-transfer-test-m2-sharpe22-o) 2026-08-20 11:10:05 +00:00
zhaoli 7b77e23112 exp 54: snapshot custom qlib code 2026-08-20 10:19:52 +00:00
zhaoli c6f1e1462b start experiment 54 (exp/54-walk-forward-transfer-test-m2-sharpe22-o) 2026-08-20 10:19:21 +00:00
zhaoli 46a9aa7b61 finish experiment 53 (exp/53-walk-forward-re-validation-of-m2-sharpe2) 2026-08-20 09:50:50 +00:00
zhaoli 9ccaef3fbb exp 53: snapshot custom qlib code 2026-08-20 09:42:54 +00:00
zhaoli 60df47d5db start experiment 53 (exp/53-walk-forward-re-validation-of-m2-sharpe2) 2026-08-20 09:41:45 +00:00
zhaoli 7cd2d91218 finish experiment 52 (exp/52-walk-forward-re-validation-of-the-3-best) 2026-08-20 09:25:18 +00:00
zhaoli e1781f606b exp 52: snapshot custom qlib code 2026-08-20 08:50:48 +00:00
zhaoli 336fa676b6 exp 52: add 9 walk-forward workflow yamls (3 configs x 2024/2025/2026) 2026-08-20 08:50:45 +00:00
zhaoli 01292ff21e start experiment 52 (exp/52-walk-forward-re-validation-of-the-3-best) 2026-08-20 08:49:23 +00:00
zhaoli 875222a85a exp 14: enhanced stochastic-control allocation - workflow YAMLs (A: TopkDropout baseline, B: OptimalStopControlV2) 2026-08-14 14:46:30 +00:00
zhaoli 32477c7bb8 exp 12: isolation ensemble workflow yaml (ablate-B features + full history) + finish record 2026-08-14 05:37:13 +00:00
zhaoli e657c58758 start exp 9 (sp5d-feature-family-ablation): baseline all-24 + generic-only 19 workflow YAMLs 2026-08-13 04:32:30 +00:00
36 changed files with 2991 additions and 1286 deletions
@@ -1,46 +0,0 @@
window,gate,start,end,trade_dates,gate_open,gate_closed,trip_rate,base_ann,base_sharpe,base_maxDD,gated_ann,gated_sharpe,gated_maxDD
2026,hitrate_5d_0.50,2026-01-04,2026-08-19,157,92,65,0.414,0.255023,1.4465,-0.080671,0.649911,5.7351,-0.031795
2026,hitrate_5d_0.60,2026-01-04,2026-08-19,157,49,108,0.6879,0.255023,1.4465,-0.080671,0.489313,6.0111,-0.014864
2026,hitrate_5d_0.70,2026-01-04,2026-08-19,157,15,142,0.9045,0.255023,1.4465,-0.080671,0.229523,4.3611,-0.002029
2026,hitrate_10d_0.50,2026-01-04,2026-08-19,157,109,48,0.3057,0.255023,1.4465,-0.080671,0.335822,2.6391,-0.060142
2026,hitrate_10d_0.60,2026-01-04,2026-08-19,157,36,121,0.7707,0.255023,1.4465,-0.080671,0.251108,3.8579,-0.026842
2026,hitrate_10d_0.70,2026-01-04,2026-08-19,157,9,148,0.9427,0.255023,1.4465,-0.080671,0.039314,1.3415,-0.012061
2026,hitrate_20d_0.40,2026-01-04,2026-08-19,157,157,0,0.0,0.255023,1.4465,-0.080671,0.255023,1.4465,-0.080671
2026,hitrate_20d_0.50,2026-01-04,2026-08-19,157,118,39,0.2484,0.255023,1.4465,-0.080671,0.343819,2.5185,-0.06259
2026,hitrate_20d_0.60,2026-01-04,2026-08-19,157,28,129,0.8217,0.255023,1.4465,-0.080671,0.020214,0.3601,-0.028489
2025,hitrate_5d_0.50,2025-01-02,2025-12-31,250,153,97,0.388,0.177515,0.8573,-0.217417,0.72055,6.9599,-0.048495
2025,hitrate_5d_0.60,2025-01-02,2025-12-31,250,90,160,0.64,0.177515,0.8573,-0.217417,0.48564,5.3623,-0.046673
2025,hitrate_5d_0.70,2025-01-02,2025-12-31,250,39,211,0.844,0.177515,0.8573,-0.217417,0.249221,4.9448,-0.009619
2025,hitrate_10d_0.50,2025-01-02,2025-12-31,250,170,80,0.32,0.177515,0.8573,-0.217417,0.435847,3.5614,-0.055776
2025,hitrate_10d_0.60,2025-01-02,2025-12-31,250,66,184,0.736,0.177515,0.8573,-0.217417,0.324574,5.2279,-0.016028
2025,hitrate_10d_0.70,2025-01-02,2025-12-31,250,14,236,0.944,0.177515,0.8573,-0.217417,0.043002,1.4635,-0.010154
2025,hitrate_20d_0.40,2025-01-02,2025-12-31,250,247,3,0.012,0.177515,0.8573,-0.217417,0.202949,0.9896,-0.217417
2025,hitrate_20d_0.50,2025-01-02,2025-12-31,250,177,73,0.292,0.177515,0.8573,-0.217417,0.340772,2.8303,-0.071731
2025,hitrate_20d_0.60,2025-01-02,2025-12-31,250,48,202,0.808,0.177515,0.8573,-0.217417,0.266028,4.1749,-0.021527
2024,hitrate_5d_0.50,2024-01-02,2024-12-31,253,139,114,0.4506,0.08229,0.5594,-0.10685,0.30351,2.4275,-0.088219
2024,hitrate_5d_0.60,2024-01-02,2024-12-31,253,71,182,0.7194,0.08229,0.5594,-0.10685,0.265365,2.4908,-0.078304
2024,hitrate_5d_0.70,2024-01-02,2024-12-31,253,19,234,0.9249,0.08229,0.5594,-0.10685,0.143125,3.377,-0.003364
2024,hitrate_10d_0.50,2024-01-02,2024-12-31,253,157,96,0.3794,0.08229,0.5594,-0.10685,0.277421,2.5767,-0.043146
2024,hitrate_10d_0.60,2024-01-02,2024-12-31,253,37,216,0.8538,0.08229,0.5594,-0.10685,0.207161,3.6083,-0.011122
2024,hitrate_10d_0.70,2024-01-02,2024-12-31,253,7,246,0.9723,0.08229,0.5594,-0.10685,0.031785,1.7408,-0.002083
2024,hitrate_20d_0.40,2024-01-02,2024-12-31,253,247,6,0.0237,0.08229,0.5594,-0.10685,0.078007,0.5342,-0.10685
2024,hitrate_20d_0.50,2024-01-02,2024-12-31,253,177,76,0.3004,0.08229,0.5594,-0.10685,0.210672,1.8469,-0.056207
2024,hitrate_20d_0.60,2024-01-02,2024-12-31,253,13,240,0.9486,0.08229,0.5594,-0.10685,0.005953,0.3039,-0.014443
2023,hitrate_5d_0.50,2023-01-03,2023-12-29,250,139,111,0.444,-0.047644,-0.2738,-0.197856,0.546654,4.2124,-0.035676
2023,hitrate_5d_0.60,2023-01-03,2023-12-29,250,79,171,0.684,-0.047644,-0.2738,-0.197856,0.556291,5.1026,-0.025449
2023,hitrate_5d_0.70,2023-01-03,2023-12-29,250,34,216,0.864,-0.047644,-0.2738,-0.197856,0.404269,4.4477,-0.013842
2023,hitrate_10d_0.50,2023-01-03,2023-12-29,250,148,102,0.408,-0.047644,-0.2738,-0.197856,0.459869,3.5211,-0.046921
2023,hitrate_10d_0.60,2023-01-03,2023-12-29,250,62,188,0.752,-0.047644,-0.2738,-0.197856,0.368232,4.0148,-0.022983
2023,hitrate_10d_0.70,2023-01-03,2023-12-29,250,13,237,0.948,-0.047644,-0.2738,-0.197856,0.091481,2.1324,-0.010866
2023,hitrate_20d_0.40,2023-01-03,2023-12-29,250,237,13,0.052,-0.047644,-0.2738,-0.197856,0.06639,0.3895,-0.146704
2023,hitrate_20d_0.50,2023-01-03,2023-12-29,250,149,101,0.404,-0.047644,-0.2738,-0.197856,0.366016,2.5969,-0.063998
2023,hitrate_20d_0.60,2023-01-03,2023-12-29,250,40,210,0.84,-0.047644,-0.2738,-0.197856,0.149844,2.2645,-0.032267
2021,hitrate_5d_0.50,2021-01-04,2021-12-31,252,145,107,0.4246,0.18367,1.0979,-0.102651,0.556615,5.9167,-0.028062
2021,hitrate_5d_0.60,2021-01-04,2021-12-31,252,68,184,0.7302,0.18367,1.0979,-0.102651,0.351867,5.8468,-0.011638
2021,hitrate_5d_0.70,2021-01-04,2021-12-31,252,26,226,0.8968,0.18367,1.0979,-0.102651,0.148417,3.9593,-0.0041
2021,hitrate_10d_0.50,2021-01-04,2021-12-31,252,163,89,0.3532,0.18367,1.0979,-0.102651,0.465023,4.2342,-0.040569
2021,hitrate_10d_0.60,2021-01-04,2021-12-31,252,51,201,0.7976,0.18367,1.0979,-0.102651,0.21802,4.7978,-0.011134
2021,hitrate_10d_0.70,2021-01-04,2021-12-31,252,13,239,0.9484,0.18367,1.0979,-0.102651,0.06108,2.7055,-0.000262
2021,hitrate_20d_0.40,2021-01-04,2021-12-31,252,252,0,0.0,0.18367,1.0979,-0.102651,0.18367,1.0979,-0.102651
2021,hitrate_20d_0.50,2021-01-04,2021-12-31,252,166,86,0.3413,0.18367,1.0979,-0.102651,0.289756,2.5787,-0.049244
2021,hitrate_20d_0.60,2021-01-04,2021-12-31,252,38,214,0.8492,0.18367,1.0979,-0.102651,0.104685,2.394,-0.015084
1 window gate start end trade_dates gate_open gate_closed trip_rate base_ann base_sharpe base_maxDD gated_ann gated_sharpe gated_maxDD
2 2026 hitrate_5d_0.50 2026-01-04 2026-08-19 157 92 65 0.414 0.255023 1.4465 -0.080671 0.649911 5.7351 -0.031795
3 2026 hitrate_5d_0.60 2026-01-04 2026-08-19 157 49 108 0.6879 0.255023 1.4465 -0.080671 0.489313 6.0111 -0.014864
4 2026 hitrate_5d_0.70 2026-01-04 2026-08-19 157 15 142 0.9045 0.255023 1.4465 -0.080671 0.229523 4.3611 -0.002029
5 2026 hitrate_10d_0.50 2026-01-04 2026-08-19 157 109 48 0.3057 0.255023 1.4465 -0.080671 0.335822 2.6391 -0.060142
6 2026 hitrate_10d_0.60 2026-01-04 2026-08-19 157 36 121 0.7707 0.255023 1.4465 -0.080671 0.251108 3.8579 -0.026842
7 2026 hitrate_10d_0.70 2026-01-04 2026-08-19 157 9 148 0.9427 0.255023 1.4465 -0.080671 0.039314 1.3415 -0.012061
8 2026 hitrate_20d_0.40 2026-01-04 2026-08-19 157 157 0 0.0 0.255023 1.4465 -0.080671 0.255023 1.4465 -0.080671
9 2026 hitrate_20d_0.50 2026-01-04 2026-08-19 157 118 39 0.2484 0.255023 1.4465 -0.080671 0.343819 2.5185 -0.06259
10 2026 hitrate_20d_0.60 2026-01-04 2026-08-19 157 28 129 0.8217 0.255023 1.4465 -0.080671 0.020214 0.3601 -0.028489
11 2025 hitrate_5d_0.50 2025-01-02 2025-12-31 250 153 97 0.388 0.177515 0.8573 -0.217417 0.72055 6.9599 -0.048495
12 2025 hitrate_5d_0.60 2025-01-02 2025-12-31 250 90 160 0.64 0.177515 0.8573 -0.217417 0.48564 5.3623 -0.046673
13 2025 hitrate_5d_0.70 2025-01-02 2025-12-31 250 39 211 0.844 0.177515 0.8573 -0.217417 0.249221 4.9448 -0.009619
14 2025 hitrate_10d_0.50 2025-01-02 2025-12-31 250 170 80 0.32 0.177515 0.8573 -0.217417 0.435847 3.5614 -0.055776
15 2025 hitrate_10d_0.60 2025-01-02 2025-12-31 250 66 184 0.736 0.177515 0.8573 -0.217417 0.324574 5.2279 -0.016028
16 2025 hitrate_10d_0.70 2025-01-02 2025-12-31 250 14 236 0.944 0.177515 0.8573 -0.217417 0.043002 1.4635 -0.010154
17 2025 hitrate_20d_0.40 2025-01-02 2025-12-31 250 247 3 0.012 0.177515 0.8573 -0.217417 0.202949 0.9896 -0.217417
18 2025 hitrate_20d_0.50 2025-01-02 2025-12-31 250 177 73 0.292 0.177515 0.8573 -0.217417 0.340772 2.8303 -0.071731
19 2025 hitrate_20d_0.60 2025-01-02 2025-12-31 250 48 202 0.808 0.177515 0.8573 -0.217417 0.266028 4.1749 -0.021527
20 2024 hitrate_5d_0.50 2024-01-02 2024-12-31 253 139 114 0.4506 0.08229 0.5594 -0.10685 0.30351 2.4275 -0.088219
21 2024 hitrate_5d_0.60 2024-01-02 2024-12-31 253 71 182 0.7194 0.08229 0.5594 -0.10685 0.265365 2.4908 -0.078304
22 2024 hitrate_5d_0.70 2024-01-02 2024-12-31 253 19 234 0.9249 0.08229 0.5594 -0.10685 0.143125 3.377 -0.003364
23 2024 hitrate_10d_0.50 2024-01-02 2024-12-31 253 157 96 0.3794 0.08229 0.5594 -0.10685 0.277421 2.5767 -0.043146
24 2024 hitrate_10d_0.60 2024-01-02 2024-12-31 253 37 216 0.8538 0.08229 0.5594 -0.10685 0.207161 3.6083 -0.011122
25 2024 hitrate_10d_0.70 2024-01-02 2024-12-31 253 7 246 0.9723 0.08229 0.5594 -0.10685 0.031785 1.7408 -0.002083
26 2024 hitrate_20d_0.40 2024-01-02 2024-12-31 253 247 6 0.0237 0.08229 0.5594 -0.10685 0.078007 0.5342 -0.10685
27 2024 hitrate_20d_0.50 2024-01-02 2024-12-31 253 177 76 0.3004 0.08229 0.5594 -0.10685 0.210672 1.8469 -0.056207
28 2024 hitrate_20d_0.60 2024-01-02 2024-12-31 253 13 240 0.9486 0.08229 0.5594 -0.10685 0.005953 0.3039 -0.014443
29 2023 hitrate_5d_0.50 2023-01-03 2023-12-29 250 139 111 0.444 -0.047644 -0.2738 -0.197856 0.546654 4.2124 -0.035676
30 2023 hitrate_5d_0.60 2023-01-03 2023-12-29 250 79 171 0.684 -0.047644 -0.2738 -0.197856 0.556291 5.1026 -0.025449
31 2023 hitrate_5d_0.70 2023-01-03 2023-12-29 250 34 216 0.864 -0.047644 -0.2738 -0.197856 0.404269 4.4477 -0.013842
32 2023 hitrate_10d_0.50 2023-01-03 2023-12-29 250 148 102 0.408 -0.047644 -0.2738 -0.197856 0.459869 3.5211 -0.046921
33 2023 hitrate_10d_0.60 2023-01-03 2023-12-29 250 62 188 0.752 -0.047644 -0.2738 -0.197856 0.368232 4.0148 -0.022983
34 2023 hitrate_10d_0.70 2023-01-03 2023-12-29 250 13 237 0.948 -0.047644 -0.2738 -0.197856 0.091481 2.1324 -0.010866
35 2023 hitrate_20d_0.40 2023-01-03 2023-12-29 250 237 13 0.052 -0.047644 -0.2738 -0.197856 0.06639 0.3895 -0.146704
36 2023 hitrate_20d_0.50 2023-01-03 2023-12-29 250 149 101 0.404 -0.047644 -0.2738 -0.197856 0.366016 2.5969 -0.063998
37 2023 hitrate_20d_0.60 2023-01-03 2023-12-29 250 40 210 0.84 -0.047644 -0.2738 -0.197856 0.149844 2.2645 -0.032267
38 2021 hitrate_5d_0.50 2021-01-04 2021-12-31 252 145 107 0.4246 0.18367 1.0979 -0.102651 0.556615 5.9167 -0.028062
39 2021 hitrate_5d_0.60 2021-01-04 2021-12-31 252 68 184 0.7302 0.18367 1.0979 -0.102651 0.351867 5.8468 -0.011638
40 2021 hitrate_5d_0.70 2021-01-04 2021-12-31 252 26 226 0.8968 0.18367 1.0979 -0.102651 0.148417 3.9593 -0.0041
41 2021 hitrate_10d_0.50 2021-01-04 2021-12-31 252 163 89 0.3532 0.18367 1.0979 -0.102651 0.465023 4.2342 -0.040569
42 2021 hitrate_10d_0.60 2021-01-04 2021-12-31 252 51 201 0.7976 0.18367 1.0979 -0.102651 0.21802 4.7978 -0.011134
43 2021 hitrate_10d_0.70 2021-01-04 2021-12-31 252 13 239 0.9484 0.18367 1.0979 -0.102651 0.06108 2.7055 -0.000262
44 2021 hitrate_20d_0.40 2021-01-04 2021-12-31 252 252 0 0.0 0.18367 1.0979 -0.102651 0.18367 1.0979 -0.102651
45 2021 hitrate_20d_0.50 2021-01-04 2021-12-31 252 166 86 0.3413 0.18367 1.0979 -0.102651 0.289756 2.5787 -0.049244
46 2021 hitrate_20d_0.60 2021-01-04 2021-12-31 252 38 214 0.8492 0.18367 1.0979 -0.102651 0.104685 2.394 -0.015084
@@ -1,722 +0,0 @@
[
{
"window": "2026",
"gate": "hitrate_5d_0.50",
"start": "2026-01-04",
"end": "2026-08-19",
"trade_dates": 157,
"gate_open": 92,
"gate_closed": 65,
"trip_rate": 0.414,
"base_ann": 0.255023,
"base_sharpe": 1.4465,
"base_maxDD": -0.080671,
"gated_ann": 0.649911,
"gated_sharpe": 5.7351,
"gated_maxDD": -0.031795
},
{
"window": "2026",
"gate": "hitrate_5d_0.60",
"start": "2026-01-04",
"end": "2026-08-19",
"trade_dates": 157,
"gate_open": 49,
"gate_closed": 108,
"trip_rate": 0.6879,
"base_ann": 0.255023,
"base_sharpe": 1.4465,
"base_maxDD": -0.080671,
"gated_ann": 0.489313,
"gated_sharpe": 6.0111,
"gated_maxDD": -0.014864
},
{
"window": "2026",
"gate": "hitrate_5d_0.70",
"start": "2026-01-04",
"end": "2026-08-19",
"trade_dates": 157,
"gate_open": 15,
"gate_closed": 142,
"trip_rate": 0.9045,
"base_ann": 0.255023,
"base_sharpe": 1.4465,
"base_maxDD": -0.080671,
"gated_ann": 0.229523,
"gated_sharpe": 4.3611,
"gated_maxDD": -0.002029
},
{
"window": "2026",
"gate": "hitrate_10d_0.50",
"start": "2026-01-04",
"end": "2026-08-19",
"trade_dates": 157,
"gate_open": 109,
"gate_closed": 48,
"trip_rate": 0.3057,
"base_ann": 0.255023,
"base_sharpe": 1.4465,
"base_maxDD": -0.080671,
"gated_ann": 0.335822,
"gated_sharpe": 2.6391,
"gated_maxDD": -0.060142
},
{
"window": "2026",
"gate": "hitrate_10d_0.60",
"start": "2026-01-04",
"end": "2026-08-19",
"trade_dates": 157,
"gate_open": 36,
"gate_closed": 121,
"trip_rate": 0.7707,
"base_ann": 0.255023,
"base_sharpe": 1.4465,
"base_maxDD": -0.080671,
"gated_ann": 0.251108,
"gated_sharpe": 3.8579,
"gated_maxDD": -0.026842
},
{
"window": "2026",
"gate": "hitrate_10d_0.70",
"start": "2026-01-04",
"end": "2026-08-19",
"trade_dates": 157,
"gate_open": 9,
"gate_closed": 148,
"trip_rate": 0.9427,
"base_ann": 0.255023,
"base_sharpe": 1.4465,
"base_maxDD": -0.080671,
"gated_ann": 0.039314,
"gated_sharpe": 1.3415,
"gated_maxDD": -0.012061
},
{
"window": "2026",
"gate": "hitrate_20d_0.40",
"start": "2026-01-04",
"end": "2026-08-19",
"trade_dates": 157,
"gate_open": 157,
"gate_closed": 0,
"trip_rate": 0.0,
"base_ann": 0.255023,
"base_sharpe": 1.4465,
"base_maxDD": -0.080671,
"gated_ann": 0.255023,
"gated_sharpe": 1.4465,
"gated_maxDD": -0.080671
},
{
"window": "2026",
"gate": "hitrate_20d_0.50",
"start": "2026-01-04",
"end": "2026-08-19",
"trade_dates": 157,
"gate_open": 118,
"gate_closed": 39,
"trip_rate": 0.2484,
"base_ann": 0.255023,
"base_sharpe": 1.4465,
"base_maxDD": -0.080671,
"gated_ann": 0.343819,
"gated_sharpe": 2.5185,
"gated_maxDD": -0.06259
},
{
"window": "2026",
"gate": "hitrate_20d_0.60",
"start": "2026-01-04",
"end": "2026-08-19",
"trade_dates": 157,
"gate_open": 28,
"gate_closed": 129,
"trip_rate": 0.8217,
"base_ann": 0.255023,
"base_sharpe": 1.4465,
"base_maxDD": -0.080671,
"gated_ann": 0.020214,
"gated_sharpe": 0.3601,
"gated_maxDD": -0.028489
},
{
"window": "2025",
"gate": "hitrate_5d_0.50",
"start": "2025-01-02",
"end": "2025-12-31",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 153,
"gate_closed": 97,
"trip_rate": 0.388,
"base_ann": 0.177515,
"base_sharpe": 0.8573,
"base_maxDD": -0.217417,
"gated_ann": 0.72055,
"gated_sharpe": 6.9599,
"gated_maxDD": -0.048495
},
{
"window": "2025",
"gate": "hitrate_5d_0.60",
"start": "2025-01-02",
"end": "2025-12-31",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 90,
"gate_closed": 160,
"trip_rate": 0.64,
"base_ann": 0.177515,
"base_sharpe": 0.8573,
"base_maxDD": -0.217417,
"gated_ann": 0.48564,
"gated_sharpe": 5.3623,
"gated_maxDD": -0.046673
},
{
"window": "2025",
"gate": "hitrate_5d_0.70",
"start": "2025-01-02",
"end": "2025-12-31",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 39,
"gate_closed": 211,
"trip_rate": 0.844,
"base_ann": 0.177515,
"base_sharpe": 0.8573,
"base_maxDD": -0.217417,
"gated_ann": 0.249221,
"gated_sharpe": 4.9448,
"gated_maxDD": -0.009619
},
{
"window": "2025",
"gate": "hitrate_10d_0.50",
"start": "2025-01-02",
"end": "2025-12-31",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 170,
"gate_closed": 80,
"trip_rate": 0.32,
"base_ann": 0.177515,
"base_sharpe": 0.8573,
"base_maxDD": -0.217417,
"gated_ann": 0.435847,
"gated_sharpe": 3.5614,
"gated_maxDD": -0.055776
},
{
"window": "2025",
"gate": "hitrate_10d_0.60",
"start": "2025-01-02",
"end": "2025-12-31",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 66,
"gate_closed": 184,
"trip_rate": 0.736,
"base_ann": 0.177515,
"base_sharpe": 0.8573,
"base_maxDD": -0.217417,
"gated_ann": 0.324574,
"gated_sharpe": 5.2279,
"gated_maxDD": -0.016028
},
{
"window": "2025",
"gate": "hitrate_10d_0.70",
"start": "2025-01-02",
"end": "2025-12-31",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 14,
"gate_closed": 236,
"trip_rate": 0.944,
"base_ann": 0.177515,
"base_sharpe": 0.8573,
"base_maxDD": -0.217417,
"gated_ann": 0.043002,
"gated_sharpe": 1.4635,
"gated_maxDD": -0.010154
},
{
"window": "2025",
"gate": "hitrate_20d_0.40",
"start": "2025-01-02",
"end": "2025-12-31",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 247,
"gate_closed": 3,
"trip_rate": 0.012,
"base_ann": 0.177515,
"base_sharpe": 0.8573,
"base_maxDD": -0.217417,
"gated_ann": 0.202949,
"gated_sharpe": 0.9896,
"gated_maxDD": -0.217417
},
{
"window": "2025",
"gate": "hitrate_20d_0.50",
"start": "2025-01-02",
"end": "2025-12-31",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 177,
"gate_closed": 73,
"trip_rate": 0.292,
"base_ann": 0.177515,
"base_sharpe": 0.8573,
"base_maxDD": -0.217417,
"gated_ann": 0.340772,
"gated_sharpe": 2.8303,
"gated_maxDD": -0.071731
},
{
"window": "2025",
"gate": "hitrate_20d_0.60",
"start": "2025-01-02",
"end": "2025-12-31",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 48,
"gate_closed": 202,
"trip_rate": 0.808,
"base_ann": 0.177515,
"base_sharpe": 0.8573,
"base_maxDD": -0.217417,
"gated_ann": 0.266028,
"gated_sharpe": 4.1749,
"gated_maxDD": -0.021527
},
{
"window": "2024",
"gate": "hitrate_5d_0.50",
"start": "2024-01-02",
"end": "2024-12-31",
"trade_dates": 253,
"gate_open": 139,
"gate_closed": 114,
"trip_rate": 0.4506,
"base_ann": 0.08229,
"base_sharpe": 0.5594,
"base_maxDD": -0.10685,
"gated_ann": 0.30351,
"gated_sharpe": 2.4275,
"gated_maxDD": -0.088219
},
{
"window": "2024",
"gate": "hitrate_5d_0.60",
"start": "2024-01-02",
"end": "2024-12-31",
"trade_dates": 253,
"gate_open": 71,
"gate_closed": 182,
"trip_rate": 0.7194,
"base_ann": 0.08229,
"base_sharpe": 0.5594,
"base_maxDD": -0.10685,
"gated_ann": 0.265365,
"gated_sharpe": 2.4908,
"gated_maxDD": -0.078304
},
{
"window": "2024",
"gate": "hitrate_5d_0.70",
"start": "2024-01-02",
"end": "2024-12-31",
"trade_dates": 253,
"gate_open": 19,
"gate_closed": 234,
"trip_rate": 0.9249,
"base_ann": 0.08229,
"base_sharpe": 0.5594,
"base_maxDD": -0.10685,
"gated_ann": 0.143125,
"gated_sharpe": 3.377,
"gated_maxDD": -0.003364
},
{
"window": "2024",
"gate": "hitrate_10d_0.50",
"start": "2024-01-02",
"end": "2024-12-31",
"trade_dates": 253,
"gate_open": 157,
"gate_closed": 96,
"trip_rate": 0.3794,
"base_ann": 0.08229,
"base_sharpe": 0.5594,
"base_maxDD": -0.10685,
"gated_ann": 0.277421,
"gated_sharpe": 2.5767,
"gated_maxDD": -0.043146
},
{
"window": "2024",
"gate": "hitrate_10d_0.60",
"start": "2024-01-02",
"end": "2024-12-31",
"trade_dates": 253,
"gate_open": 37,
"gate_closed": 216,
"trip_rate": 0.8538,
"base_ann": 0.08229,
"base_sharpe": 0.5594,
"base_maxDD": -0.10685,
"gated_ann": 0.207161,
"gated_sharpe": 3.6083,
"gated_maxDD": -0.011122
},
{
"window": "2024",
"gate": "hitrate_10d_0.70",
"start": "2024-01-02",
"end": "2024-12-31",
"trade_dates": 253,
"gate_open": 7,
"gate_closed": 246,
"trip_rate": 0.9723,
"base_ann": 0.08229,
"base_sharpe": 0.5594,
"base_maxDD": -0.10685,
"gated_ann": 0.031785,
"gated_sharpe": 1.7408,
"gated_maxDD": -0.002083
},
{
"window": "2024",
"gate": "hitrate_20d_0.40",
"start": "2024-01-02",
"end": "2024-12-31",
"trade_dates": 253,
"gate_open": 247,
"gate_closed": 6,
"trip_rate": 0.0237,
"base_ann": 0.08229,
"base_sharpe": 0.5594,
"base_maxDD": -0.10685,
"gated_ann": 0.078007,
"gated_sharpe": 0.5342,
"gated_maxDD": -0.10685
},
{
"window": "2024",
"gate": "hitrate_20d_0.50",
"start": "2024-01-02",
"end": "2024-12-31",
"trade_dates": 253,
"gate_open": 177,
"gate_closed": 76,
"trip_rate": 0.3004,
"base_ann": 0.08229,
"base_sharpe": 0.5594,
"base_maxDD": -0.10685,
"gated_ann": 0.210672,
"gated_sharpe": 1.8469,
"gated_maxDD": -0.056207
},
{
"window": "2024",
"gate": "hitrate_20d_0.60",
"start": "2024-01-02",
"end": "2024-12-31",
"trade_dates": 253,
"gate_open": 13,
"gate_closed": 240,
"trip_rate": 0.9486,
"base_ann": 0.08229,
"base_sharpe": 0.5594,
"base_maxDD": -0.10685,
"gated_ann": 0.005953,
"gated_sharpe": 0.3039,
"gated_maxDD": -0.014443
},
{
"window": "2023",
"gate": "hitrate_5d_0.50",
"start": "2023-01-03",
"end": "2023-12-29",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 139,
"gate_closed": 111,
"trip_rate": 0.444,
"base_ann": -0.047644,
"base_sharpe": -0.2738,
"base_maxDD": -0.197856,
"gated_ann": 0.546654,
"gated_sharpe": 4.2124,
"gated_maxDD": -0.035676
},
{
"window": "2023",
"gate": "hitrate_5d_0.60",
"start": "2023-01-03",
"end": "2023-12-29",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 79,
"gate_closed": 171,
"trip_rate": 0.684,
"base_ann": -0.047644,
"base_sharpe": -0.2738,
"base_maxDD": -0.197856,
"gated_ann": 0.556291,
"gated_sharpe": 5.1026,
"gated_maxDD": -0.025449
},
{
"window": "2023",
"gate": "hitrate_5d_0.70",
"start": "2023-01-03",
"end": "2023-12-29",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 34,
"gate_closed": 216,
"trip_rate": 0.864,
"base_ann": -0.047644,
"base_sharpe": -0.2738,
"base_maxDD": -0.197856,
"gated_ann": 0.404269,
"gated_sharpe": 4.4477,
"gated_maxDD": -0.013842
},
{
"window": "2023",
"gate": "hitrate_10d_0.50",
"start": "2023-01-03",
"end": "2023-12-29",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 148,
"gate_closed": 102,
"trip_rate": 0.408,
"base_ann": -0.047644,
"base_sharpe": -0.2738,
"base_maxDD": -0.197856,
"gated_ann": 0.459869,
"gated_sharpe": 3.5211,
"gated_maxDD": -0.046921
},
{
"window": "2023",
"gate": "hitrate_10d_0.60",
"start": "2023-01-03",
"end": "2023-12-29",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 62,
"gate_closed": 188,
"trip_rate": 0.752,
"base_ann": -0.047644,
"base_sharpe": -0.2738,
"base_maxDD": -0.197856,
"gated_ann": 0.368232,
"gated_sharpe": 4.0148,
"gated_maxDD": -0.022983
},
{
"window": "2023",
"gate": "hitrate_10d_0.70",
"start": "2023-01-03",
"end": "2023-12-29",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 13,
"gate_closed": 237,
"trip_rate": 0.948,
"base_ann": -0.047644,
"base_sharpe": -0.2738,
"base_maxDD": -0.197856,
"gated_ann": 0.091481,
"gated_sharpe": 2.1324,
"gated_maxDD": -0.010866
},
{
"window": "2023",
"gate": "hitrate_20d_0.40",
"start": "2023-01-03",
"end": "2023-12-29",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 237,
"gate_closed": 13,
"trip_rate": 0.052,
"base_ann": -0.047644,
"base_sharpe": -0.2738,
"base_maxDD": -0.197856,
"gated_ann": 0.06639,
"gated_sharpe": 0.3895,
"gated_maxDD": -0.146704
},
{
"window": "2023",
"gate": "hitrate_20d_0.50",
"start": "2023-01-03",
"end": "2023-12-29",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 149,
"gate_closed": 101,
"trip_rate": 0.404,
"base_ann": -0.047644,
"base_sharpe": -0.2738,
"base_maxDD": -0.197856,
"gated_ann": 0.366016,
"gated_sharpe": 2.5969,
"gated_maxDD": -0.063998
},
{
"window": "2023",
"gate": "hitrate_20d_0.60",
"start": "2023-01-03",
"end": "2023-12-29",
"trade_dates": 250,
"gate_open": 40,
"gate_closed": 210,
"trip_rate": 0.84,
"base_ann": -0.047644,
"base_sharpe": -0.2738,
"base_maxDD": -0.197856,
"gated_ann": 0.149844,
"gated_sharpe": 2.2645,
"gated_maxDD": -0.032267
},
{
"window": "2021",
"gate": "hitrate_5d_0.50",
"start": "2021-01-04",
"end": "2021-12-31",
"trade_dates": 252,
"gate_open": 145,
"gate_closed": 107,
"trip_rate": 0.4246,
"base_ann": 0.18367,
"base_sharpe": 1.0979,
"base_maxDD": -0.102651,
"gated_ann": 0.556615,
"gated_sharpe": 5.9167,
"gated_maxDD": -0.028062
},
{
"window": "2021",
"gate": "hitrate_5d_0.60",
"start": "2021-01-04",
"end": "2021-12-31",
"trade_dates": 252,
"gate_open": 68,
"gate_closed": 184,
"trip_rate": 0.7302,
"base_ann": 0.18367,
"base_sharpe": 1.0979,
"base_maxDD": -0.102651,
"gated_ann": 0.351867,
"gated_sharpe": 5.8468,
"gated_maxDD": -0.011638
},
{
"window": "2021",
"gate": "hitrate_5d_0.70",
"start": "2021-01-04",
"end": "2021-12-31",
"trade_dates": 252,
"gate_open": 26,
"gate_closed": 226,
"trip_rate": 0.8968,
"base_ann": 0.18367,
"base_sharpe": 1.0979,
"base_maxDD": -0.102651,
"gated_ann": 0.148417,
"gated_sharpe": 3.9593,
"gated_maxDD": -0.0041
},
{
"window": "2021",
"gate": "hitrate_10d_0.50",
"start": "2021-01-04",
"end": "2021-12-31",
"trade_dates": 252,
"gate_open": 163,
"gate_closed": 89,
"trip_rate": 0.3532,
"base_ann": 0.18367,
"base_sharpe": 1.0979,
"base_maxDD": -0.102651,
"gated_ann": 0.465023,
"gated_sharpe": 4.2342,
"gated_maxDD": -0.040569
},
{
"window": "2021",
"gate": "hitrate_10d_0.60",
"start": "2021-01-04",
"end": "2021-12-31",
"trade_dates": 252,
"gate_open": 51,
"gate_closed": 201,
"trip_rate": 0.7976,
"base_ann": 0.18367,
"base_sharpe": 1.0979,
"base_maxDD": -0.102651,
"gated_ann": 0.21802,
"gated_sharpe": 4.7978,
"gated_maxDD": -0.011134
},
{
"window": "2021",
"gate": "hitrate_10d_0.70",
"start": "2021-01-04",
"end": "2021-12-31",
"trade_dates": 252,
"gate_open": 13,
"gate_closed": 239,
"trip_rate": 0.9484,
"base_ann": 0.18367,
"base_sharpe": 1.0979,
"base_maxDD": -0.102651,
"gated_ann": 0.06108,
"gated_sharpe": 2.7055,
"gated_maxDD": -0.000262
},
{
"window": "2021",
"gate": "hitrate_20d_0.40",
"start": "2021-01-04",
"end": "2021-12-31",
"trade_dates": 252,
"gate_open": 252,
"gate_closed": 0,
"trip_rate": 0.0,
"base_ann": 0.18367,
"base_sharpe": 1.0979,
"base_maxDD": -0.102651,
"gated_ann": 0.18367,
"gated_sharpe": 1.0979,
"gated_maxDD": -0.102651
},
{
"window": "2021",
"gate": "hitrate_20d_0.50",
"start": "2021-01-04",
"end": "2021-12-31",
"trade_dates": 252,
"gate_open": 166,
"gate_closed": 86,
"trip_rate": 0.3413,
"base_ann": 0.18367,
"base_sharpe": 1.0979,
"base_maxDD": -0.102651,
"gated_ann": 0.289756,
"gated_sharpe": 2.5787,
"gated_maxDD": -0.049244
},
{
"window": "2021",
"gate": "hitrate_20d_0.60",
"start": "2021-01-04",
"end": "2021-12-31",
"trade_dates": 252,
"gate_open": 38,
"gate_closed": 214,
"trip_rate": 0.8492,
"base_ann": 0.18367,
"base_sharpe": 1.0979,
"base_maxDD": -0.102651,
"gated_ann": 0.104685,
"gated_sharpe": 2.394,
"gated_maxDD": -0.015084
}
]
-293
View File
@@ -1,293 +0,0 @@
"""Signal-quality gate walk-forward backtest.
Gates trades based on whether the model's recent topk predictions were correct
(hit rate). This is a retrospective gate — it measures prediction accuracy,
not market state.
Usage:
cd /app && .venv/bin/python book/scripts/signal_quality_gate_bt.py
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import json
import pathlib
import sys
import time
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
LAKE_ROOT = "/home/data/lake"
MARKET = "US"
OUT_DIR = pathlib.Path("/app/experiments/book/data/signal_quality_gate")
WINDOWS = [
{"label": "2026", "start": "2026-01-04", "end": "2026-08-19",
"pred": f"{LAKE_ROOT}/mlruns/52/9f98ea5c550a409f87b56a6cd8fee343/artifacts/pred.pkl"},
{"label": "2025", "start": "2025-01-02", "end": "2025-12-31",
"pred": f"{LAKE_ROOT}/mlruns/52/fe96741654df4780957a3a949999ae6a/artifacts/pred.pkl"},
{"label": "2024", "start": "2024-01-02", "end": "2024-12-31",
"pred": f"{LAKE_ROOT}/mlruns/52/71ed5bfa9984490f8bba8b222f7acc39/artifacts/pred.pkl"},
{"label": "2023", "start": "2023-01-03", "end": "2023-12-29",
"pred": f"{LAKE_ROOT}/mlruns/56/8ca46e554311444c9a42637a788226e8/artifacts/pred.pkl"},
{"label": "2021", "start": "2021-01-04", "end": "2021-12-31",
"pred": f"{LAKE_ROOT}/mlruns/56/4e0700ddab2a4e108b46efece7346ee3/artifacts/pred.pkl"},
]
# Signal-quality gate configs: (lookback_days, threshold, name)
SIGNAL_GATE_CONFIGS = [
(5, 0.50, "hitrate_5d_0.50"),
(5, 0.60, "hitrate_5d_0.60"),
(5, 0.70, "hitrate_5d_0.70"),
(10, 0.50, "hitrate_10d_0.50"),
(10, 0.60, "hitrate_10d_0.60"),
(10, 0.70, "hitrate_10d_0.70"),
(20, 0.40, "hitrate_20d_0.40"),
(20, 0.50, "hitrate_20d_0.50"),
(20, 0.60, "hitrate_20d_0.60"),
]
def load_pred(path: str) -> pd.Series:
df = pd.read_pickle(path)
if isinstance(df, pd.DataFrame):
if "score" in df.columns:
s = df["score"]
else:
s = df.iloc[:, 0]
else:
s = df
idx = s.index
new_dt = pd.to_datetime(idx.get_level_values(0)).normalize()
s.index = pd.MultiIndex.from_arrays([new_dt, idx.get_level_values(1)], names=idx.names)
return s
def load_bars_for_window(start: str, end: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
from tac_qlib.data.config import LakeConfig, resolve_lake_root
cfg = LakeConfig(resolve_lake_root(LAKE_ROOT), MARKET)
sp = cfg.lake_root / "symbols.parquet"
if sp.exists():
syms = pd.read_parquet(sp)
col = "symbol" if "symbol" in syms.columns else syms.columns[0]
symbols = sorted(syms[col].astype(str).str.upper().tolist())
else:
return pd.DataFrame()
closes = {}
for sym in symbols:
p = cfg.bar_path("1d", sym)
if not p.exists():
continue
try:
df = pd.read_parquet(p)
except Exception:
continue
if not len(df):
continue
tcol = df["t"] if "t" in df.columns else df["date"]
ts = pd.to_datetime(tcol)
df = df.assign(_t=ts).set_index("_t").sort_index()
warmup_start = pd.Timestamp(start) - pd.Timedelta(days=60)
df = df.loc[warmup_start:end]
if len(df) >= 22:
closes[sym] = df["c"]
return pd.DataFrame(closes)
def compute_hit_rate_series(
pred: pd.Series, ret_df: pd.DataFrame, topk: int = 10, lookback: int = 10,
) -> pd.Series:
dt_idx = pred.index.get_level_values(0)
trade_dates = sorted(dt_idx.unique())
hit_rates = {}
for i in range(1, len(trade_dates)):
prev_date = trade_dates[i - 1]
curr_date = trade_dates[i]
try:
prev_scores = pred.loc[prev_date]
except KeyError:
continue
if isinstance(prev_scores, pd.DataFrame):
prev_scores = prev_scores.iloc[:, 0]
prev_scores = prev_scores.dropna().sort_values(ascending=False)
topk_syms = list(prev_scores.index[:topk])
if curr_date not in ret_df.index:
continue
today_ret = ret_df.loc[curr_date]
topk_rets = today_ret.reindex(topk_syms).dropna()
if len(topk_rets) > 0:
hit_rate = (topk_rets > 0).mean()
hit_rates[curr_date] = hit_rate
hit_series = pd.Series(hit_rates)
if len(hit_series) == 0:
return hit_series
rolling_hr = hit_series.rolling(lookback, min_periods=max(1, lookback // 2)).mean()
return rolling_hr
def run_backtest(pred, hit_rate, close_df, start, end, topk=10, threshold=0.5):
if not isinstance(pred.index, pd.MultiIndex):
return {"error": "pred must have MultiIndex"}
ret_df = close_df.pct_change()
ret_df.index = pd.to_datetime(ret_df.index).normalize()
dt_idx = pred.index.get_level_values(0)
window_mask = (dt_idx >= pd.Timestamp(start)) & (dt_idx <= pd.Timestamp(end))
window_pred = pred.loc[window_mask]
if len(window_pred) == 0:
return {"error": "no pred data in window"}
trade_dates = sorted(dt_idx[window_mask].unique())
gate_open = {}
for d in trade_dates:
known = hit_rate[hit_rate.index <= d]
if len(known) > 0 and not pd.isna(known.iloc[-1]):
gate_open[d] = bool(known.iloc[-1] >= threshold)
else:
gate_open[d] = True
n_total = len(trade_dates)
n_open = sum(1 for v in gate_open.values() if v)
n_closed = n_total - n_open
holdings_base = []
holdings_gated = []
equity_gated = 1_000_000.0
equity_base = 1_000_000.0
prev_week = None
prev_scores = None
daily_gated = []
daily_base = []
ret_by_date = {rd: ret_df.loc[rd] for rd in ret_df.index}
for d in trade_dates:
try:
day_scores = window_pred.loc[d]
except KeyError:
daily_gated.append(equity_gated)
daily_base.append(equity_base)
prev_scores = None
continue
if isinstance(day_scores, pd.DataFrame):
day_scores = day_scores.iloc[:, 0]
day_scores = day_scores.dropna().sort_values(ascending=False)
if len(day_scores) == 0:
daily_gated.append(equity_gated)
daily_base.append(equity_base)
prev_scores = None
continue
ret_row = ret_by_date.get(d)
if ret_row is None:
daily_gated.append(equity_gated)
daily_base.append(equity_base)
prev_scores = day_scores
continue
cur_week = (d.isocalendar()[0], d.isocalendar()[1]) if hasattr(d, 'isocalendar') else None
gate_val = gate_open.get(d, True)
if cur_week != prev_week or not holdings_base:
if prev_scores is not None:
holdings_base = list(prev_scores.index[:topk])
if holdings_base:
base_rets = ret_row.reindex(holdings_base).dropna()
if len(base_rets) > 0:
equity_base *= (1 + base_rets.mean())
if gate_val:
if cur_week != prev_week or not holdings_gated:
if prev_scores is not None:
holdings_gated = list(prev_scores.index[:topk])
if holdings_gated:
hold_rets = ret_row.reindex(holdings_gated).dropna()
if len(hold_rets) > 0:
equity_gated *= (1 + hold_rets.mean())
else:
holdings_gated = []
prev_week = cur_week
prev_scores = day_scores
daily_gated.append(equity_gated)
daily_base.append(equity_base)
g_series = pd.Series(daily_gated, index=trade_dates)
b_series = pd.Series(daily_base, index=trade_dates)
def _metrics(eq):
if len(eq) < 2:
return {"ann_return": 0, "sharpe": 0, "maxDD": 0}
rets = eq.pct_change().dropna()
ann_ret = float((eq.iloc[-1] / eq.iloc[0]) ** (252 / max(len(eq), 1)) - 1)
vol = float(rets.std() * (252 ** 0.5)) if len(rets) > 1 else 0
sharpe = ann_ret / vol if vol > 0 else 0
peak = eq.cummax()
dd = (eq - peak) / peak
maxDD = float(dd.min())
return {"ann_return": round(ann_ret, 6), "sharpe": round(sharpe, 4), "maxDD": round(maxDD, 6)}
base_m = _metrics(b_series)
gated_m = _metrics(g_series)
return {
"trade_dates": n_total,
"gate_open_days": n_open,
"gate_closed_days": n_closed,
"trip_rate": round(n_closed / n_total, 4) if n_total else 0,
"base": base_m,
"gated": gated_m,
}
def main():
OUT_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
full_start = "2015-01-03"
full_end = "2026-08-19"
print("Loading lake bars...")
close_df = load_bars_for_window(full_start, full_end)
print(f" {close_df.shape[1]} symbols, {close_df.shape[0]} days")
ret_df = close_df.pct_change()
ret_df.index = pd.to_datetime(ret_df.index).normalize()
results = []
for window in WINDOWS:
wl, ws, we = window["label"], window["start"], window["end"]
pred_path = window["pred"]
print(f"\n=== Window {wl} ({ws} to {we}) ===")
pred = load_pred(pred_path)
print(f" pred shape: {pred.shape}")
hit_rates = {}
for lookback, _, name in SIGNAL_GATE_CONFIGS:
if lookback not in hit_rates:
hr = compute_hit_rate_series(pred, ret_df, topk=10, lookback=lookback)
hit_rates[lookback] = hr
print(f" lookback={lookback}: {len(hr)} days with hit rates")
for lookback, threshold, name in SIGNAL_GATE_CONFIGS:
hr = hit_rates[lookback]
bt = run_backtest(pred, hr, close_df, ws, we, topk=10, threshold=threshold)
if "error" in bt:
print(f" {name}: {bt['error']}")
continue
row = {
"window": wl,
"gate": name,
"start": ws,
"end": we,
"trade_dates": bt["trade_dates"],
"gate_open": bt["gate_open_days"],
"gate_closed": bt["gate_closed_days"],
"trip_rate": bt["trip_rate"],
"base_ann": bt["base"]["ann_return"],
"base_sharpe": bt["base"]["sharpe"],
"base_maxDD": bt["base"]["maxDD"],
"gated_ann": bt["gated"]["ann_return"],
"gated_sharpe": bt["gated"]["sharpe"],
"gated_maxDD": bt["gated"]["maxDD"],
}
results.append(row)
print(f" {name}: trip={bt['trip_rate']:.1%}, "
f"base={bt['base']['ann_return']:+.1%} (Sharpe {bt['base']['sharpe']:.2f}), "
f"gated={bt['gated']['ann_return']:+.1%} (Sharpe {bt['gated']['sharpe']:.2f})")
df = pd.DataFrame(results)
out_path = OUT_DIR / "signal_quality_gate_results.csv"
df.to_csv(out_path, index=False)
with open(OUT_DIR / "signal_quality_gate_results.json", "w") as f:
json.dump(df.to_dict(orient="records"), f, indent=2, default=str)
print(f"\nSaved to {out_path}")
print("\n=== Summary: Gated Return by Window ===")
for gate_name in df["gate"].unique():
gdf = df[df["gate"] == gate_name]
print(f"\n{gate_name}:")
for _, r in gdf.iterrows():
print(f" {r['window']}: base={r['base_ann']:+.1%}, gated={r['gated_ann']:+.1%}, "
f"trip={r['trip_rate']:.0%}, diff={r['gated_ann']-r['base_ann']:+.1%}pp")
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
+2 -3
View File
@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
# TradeAC custom-qlib-code snapshot (auto-generated)
# parent repo HEAD : ceb1e196e24761a87d1afe1bde00079b79e02693
# parent repo HEAD : f4f6e9291b1bdc69373d06710aa5f9aa396e900c
# tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib
# tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data
# per-file hashes (git hash-object):
@@ -15,12 +15,11 @@
74d0da348cbcc3700c96b6f4fe4391488e61efc5 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/__pycache__/rank_gbdt.cpython-312.pyc
d3f051f3a8650c42fedc7b367b966f7c74fb5789 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/rank_ensemble.py
d03e6611338918d4aac5eea4adf26f85a3763652 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/rank_gbdt.py
2c2f167b693f4366a769998e3c9d4804f29e31e0 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__init__.py
b68a974a0bc87a279caed90cf2be4d7e78f9e59f tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__init__.py
c29e45e562256bf786c36f91a971b097467276e9 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
6dd1c568a2961842793674390d5abffd1a0e71b8 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/optimal_stop.cpython-312.pyc
519a1f4c05dbe0ac018ab8b779eb33d53b4dd545 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/ic_gate.py
79aaad9e39fcc740a773f4f63c512ce1086cfde0 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/optimal_stop.py
7bcee5f0b09cfa721440f1354f16f2dd9a112b12 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/regime_gate.py
fe60bacdfedd48617863be31f24b7c7daebfac5a tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/weekly_rebalance.py
92e6e90eb0cd0a25142034560f27adb6b705b1a8 tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__init__.py
316bf4aa160cc8d15929ea648be03f4b4999667d tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
@@ -1,11 +1,5 @@
from .ic_gate import ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy # noqa: F401
from .optimal_stop import OptimalStopControl # noqa: F401
from .regime_gate import RegimeGateTopkDropoutStrategy # noqa: F401
from .weekly_rebalance import WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy # noqa: F401
__all__ = [
"ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy",
"OptimalStopControl",
"RegimeGateTopkDropoutStrategy",
"WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy",
]
__all__ = ["ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy", "OptimalStopControl", "WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy"]
@@ -1,215 +0,0 @@
"""Regime-gate TopkDropout strategy.
Subclass of ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy`` that
holds the book (issues NO orders) while a regime detector says the market is in
an unfavorable state. When the gate is open it behaves exactly like the
reference TopkDropoutStrategy.
Three detector types are supported (all causal — no lookahead):
* ``dispersion``: cross-sectional standard deviation of 22-day rolling returns
across the universe. Gate closes when CS dispersion < threshold (low
dispersion means the spread between winners and losers is too narrow for
TopkDropout to exploit).
* ``vol``: cross-sectional mean of 22-day rolling realized volatility. Gate
closes when avg vol is outside a band ``[vol_low, vol_high]`` (strategy
needs moderate vol — too calm or too turbulent both hurt).
* ``hmm``: pre-computed HMM posterior for regime 1 (``sp_hmm_p_regime1``).
Gate closes when posterior < threshold (model is not confident the calm
regime is active).
The gate is provided as a precomputed ``pd.Series`` of booleans indexed by
datetime (True = trade allowed). The companion ``compute_regime_gate``
function builds this series from lake bars; call it once before backtesting
and pass the result as the ``regime_gate`` parameter.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import pandas as pd
from qlib.backtest.decision import TradeDecisionWO
from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
__all__ = ["RegimeGateTopkDropoutStrategy", "compute_regime_gate"]
class RegimeGateTopkDropoutStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
"""TopkDropout with a regime-gate circuit breaker.
Parameters
----------
topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
regime_gate : pd.Series — precomputed per-date gate (bool indexed by
datetime). True = trade allowed, False = no orders. Missing dates
default to open (trade allowed).
"""
def __init__(self, *, regime_gate=None, **kwargs):
super().__init__(**kwargs)
self._regime_gate = regime_gate
def _gate_open(self, trade_start_time) -> bool:
if self._regime_gate is None:
return True
ts = pd.Timestamp(trade_start_time)
known = self._regime_gate[self._regime_gate.index <= ts]
if len(known):
return bool(known.iloc[-1])
return True # default open if no history yet
def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
trade_start_time, _ = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
if not self._gate_open(trade_start_time):
return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
return super().generate_trade_decision(execute_result)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Precomputation helper
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def compute_regime_gate(
detector: str,
threshold: float = 0.0,
*,
lake_root: str = "",
market: str = "US",
start: str = "2015-01-03",
end: str = "2026-08-19",
vol_low: float = 0.0,
vol_high: float = 999.0,
hmm_field: str = "sp_hmm_p_regime1",
) -> pd.Series:
"""Build a per-date regime gate series from lake bars.
Parameters
----------
detector : str — ``"dispersion"``, ``"vol"``, or ``"hmm"``.
threshold : float — for ``dispersion``: min CS dispersion to allow trading.
For ``hmm``: min HMM posterior to allow trading.
Ignored for ``vol`` (uses ``vol_low``/``vol_high`` band instead).
lake_root, market : str — lake location.
start, end : str — date window.
vol_low, vol_high : float — annualized vol band for the ``vol`` detector.
hmm_field : str — HMM feature column name for the ``hmm`` detector.
Returns
-------
pd.Series — bool, indexed by datetime. True = trade allowed.
"""
from tac_qlib.data.config import LakeConfig, resolve_lake_root
cfg = LakeConfig(resolve_lake_root(lake_root or None), market)
symbols = _universe_symbols(cfg)
close_df, vol_df = _load_daily_bars(symbols, cfg, start, end)
if close_df.empty:
return pd.Series(dtype=bool)
if detector == "dispersion":
return _dispersion_gate(close_df, threshold)
elif detector == "vol":
return _vol_gate(close_df, vol_low, vol_high)
elif detector == "hmm":
return _hmm_gate(cfg, symbols, threshold, start, end, hmm_field)
else:
raise ValueError(f"Unknown detector: {detector!r}")
def _universe_symbols(cfg) -> list:
"""Read symbols from the lake symbols.parquet."""
import pathlib
sp = cfg.lake_root / "symbols.parquet"
if sp.exists():
df = pd.read_parquet(sp)
col = "symbol" if "symbol" in df.columns else df.columns[0]
return sorted(df[col].astype(str).str.upper().tolist())
return []
def _load_daily_bars(symbols, cfg, start, end):
"""Load daily close prices for all symbols into a wide DataFrame."""
closes = {}
vols = {}
for sym in symbols:
p = cfg.bar_path("1d", sym)
if not p.exists():
continue
try:
df = pd.read_parquet(p)
except Exception:
continue
if not len(df):
continue
tcol = df["t"] if "t" in df.columns else df["date"]
ts = pd.to_datetime(tcol)
df = df.assign(_t=ts).set_index("_t").sort_index()
df = df.loc[start:end]
if len(df) < 22:
continue
closes[sym] = df["c"]
if "v" in df.columns:
vols[sym] = df["v"]
close_df = pd.DataFrame(closes)
vol_df = pd.DataFrame(vols) if vols else None
return close_df, vol_df
def _dispersion_gate(close_df, threshold):
"""Cross-sectional dispersion of 22-day rolling returns."""
if close_df.empty or close_df.shape[1] < 2:
return pd.Series(dtype=bool)
ret = close_df.pct_change(22)
cs_disp = ret.std(axis=1)
gate = cs_disp >= threshold
gate.iloc[:22] = True # warmup: allow trading
return gate
def _vol_gate(close_df, vol_low, vol_high):
"""Cross-sectional mean of 22-day rolling realized vol."""
if close_df.empty or close_df.shape[1] < 2:
return pd.Series(dtype=bool)
import numpy as np
log_ret = np.log(close_df / close_df.shift(1))
rv22 = log_ret.rolling(22).std() * (252 ** 0.5)
cs_mean_vol = rv22.mean(axis=1)
gate = (cs_mean_vol >= vol_low) & (cs_mean_vol <= vol_high)
gate.iloc[:22] = True # warmup
return gate
def _hmm_gate(cfg, symbols, threshold, start, end, hmm_field):
"""HMM regime posterior gate from persisted SP features."""
feat_root = cfg.lake_root / "features"
all_posteriors = {}
for sym in symbols:
# check both ta and sp family paths
for family in ("sp", "ta"):
p = feat_root / f"market=US" / f"timeframe=1d" / f"family={family}" / f"symbol={sym}.parquet"
if not p.exists():
continue
try:
df = pd.read_parquet(p)
except Exception:
continue
if hmm_field not in df.columns:
continue
tcol = df["t"] if "t" in df.columns else df["date"]
ts = pd.to_datetime(tcol)
s = pd.Series(df[hmm_field].values, index=ts, name=sym)
s = s.loc[start:end].dropna()
if len(s) > 0:
all_posteriors[sym] = s
break
if not all_posteriors:
# no HMM features found — default open
idx = pd.date_range(start, end, freq="B")
return pd.Series(True, index=idx)
post_df = pd.DataFrame(all_posteriors)
cs_mean = post_df.mean(axis=1)
gate = cs_mean >= threshold
return gate
@@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
# ABLATION A (baseline): LightGBM with RankIC early-stopping on the 50-ETF SP-5d
# panel, using ALL 24 sp_* feature columns (ou,hmm,jump,har,trend,hurst,
# signature). Copy of the canonical workflow_lgb_sp5d_rankic.yaml with a
# distinct experiment name so the ablation runs are isolated.
#
# Run:
# rd_run_workflow config_path=tac-qlib/workflows/ablate_baseline_all_sp_fields.yaml \
# experiment_name=tac-rd-rank-ablate
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_ou_zscore,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
markets: {}
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs:
uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-rank-ablate"
task:
model:
class: RankICLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_gbdt
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seed: 42
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-10
fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
infer_processors:
- class: DropAllNaN
kwargs: {}
- class: ProcessInf
kwargs: {}
- class: CSRankNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: ZScoreNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: Fillna
kwargs: {}
segments:
train: [2015-01-03, 2025-09-01]
valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
record:
- class: SignalRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs: {}
- class: SigAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
ana_long_short: true
ann_scaler: 252
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs:
signal: "<PRED>"
topk: 10
n_drop: 2
only_tradable: true
risk_degree: 0.95
backtest:
start_time: 2026-01-04
end_time: 2026-08-10
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,134 @@
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
# ABLATION B (generic-only): same panel/model as the baseline, but feature
# fields restricted to the model-free / generic stochastic-process families
# (jump,har,trend,hurst,signature). Drops the model-specific ou (OU/AR-1
# half-life) and hmm (2-state regime) families to test whether the generic
# families alone dominate the rank dimension.
#
# Run:
# rd_run_workflow config_path=tac-qlib/workflows/ablate_generic_only_sp_fields.yaml \
# experiment_name=tac-rd-rank-ablate
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
markets: {}
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs:
uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-rank-ablate"
task:
model:
class: RankICLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_gbdt
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seed: 42
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-10
fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
infer_processors:
- class: DropAllNaN
kwargs: {}
- class: ProcessInf
kwargs: {}
- class: CSRankNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: ZScoreNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: Fillna
kwargs: {}
segments:
train: [2015-01-03, 2025-09-01]
valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
record:
- class: SignalRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs: {}
- class: SigAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
ana_long_short: true
ann_scaler: 252
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs:
signal: "<PRED>"
topk: 10
n_drop: 2
only_tradable: true
risk_degree: 0.95
backtest:
start_time: 2026-01-04
end_time: 2026-08-10
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2024
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2025-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
test: ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2024-01-02"
end_time: "2024-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2025
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
test: ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2025-01-02"
end_time: "2025-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2026
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-08-19"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
test: ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2026-01-04"
end_time: "2026-08-19"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2024
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2025-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
test: ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2024-01-02"
end_time: "2024-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2025
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
test: ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2025-01-02"
end_time: "2025-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2026
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-08-19"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
test: ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2026-01-04"
end_time: "2026-08-19"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2024
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2025-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
test: ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2024-01-02"
end_time: "2024-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2025
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
test: ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2025-01-02"
end_time: "2025-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2026
# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-08-19"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
test: ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2026-01-04"
end_time: "2026-08-19"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Walk-forward transfer test: m2-sharpe22 / test 2021 (trace exp 54)
# Label-regime match to 2026 (psi 0.039). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-2021-2023" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2022-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2020-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2020-08-31"]
valid: ["2020-09-01", "2020-12-31"]
test: ["2021-01-04", "2021-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2021-01-04"
end_time: "2021-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Walk-forward transfer test: m2-sharpe22 / test 2023 (trace exp 54)
# Best label-regime match to 2026 (psi 0.028). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-2021-2023" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2024-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2022-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2022-08-31"]
valid: ["2022-09-01", "2022-12-30"]
test: ["2023-01-03", "2023-12-29"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2023-01-03"
end_time: "2023-12-29"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Walk-forward: m2-sharpe22 / test 2024 (trace exp 53, ref exp32 c7c12228 on cleaned lake)
# Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-3windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2025-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
test: ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2024-01-02"
end_time: "2024-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Walk-forward: m2-sharpe22 / test 2025 (trace exp 53, ref exp32 c7c12228 on cleaned lake)
# Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-3windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
test: ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2025-01-02"
end_time: "2025-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Walk-forward: m2-sharpe22 / test 2026 (trace exp 53, ref exp32 c7c12228 on cleaned lake)
# Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5. Window matches reference exp32 exactly.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-3windows" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-08-10"
fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
test: ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-10"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2026-01-04"
end_time: "2026-08-10"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2021 (trace exp 55) — 1y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-1y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2022-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2019-08-30"
fit_end_time: "2020-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2019-08-30", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2019-08-30", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2019-08-30", "2020-08-31"]
valid: ["2020-09-01", "2020-12-31"]
test: ["2021-01-04", "2021-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2021-01-04"
end_time: "2021-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2023 (trace exp 55) — 1y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-1y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2024-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2021-08-31"
fit_end_time: "2022-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2021-08-31", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2021-08-31", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2021-08-31", "2022-08-31"]
valid: ["2022-09-01", "2022-12-30"]
test: ["2023-01-03", "2023-12-29"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2023-01-03"
end_time: "2023-12-29"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2024 (trace exp 55) — 1y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-1y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2025-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2022-08-31"
fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2022-08-31", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2022-08-31", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2022-08-31", "2023-08-31"]
valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
test: ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2024-01-02"
end_time: "2024-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2025 (trace exp 55) — 1y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-1y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2023-08-31"
fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2023-08-31", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2023-08-31", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2023-08-31", "2024-08-30"]
valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
test: ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2025-01-02"
end_time: "2025-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2026 (trace exp 55) — 1y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-1y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-08-10"
fit_start_time: "2024-09-03"
fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2024-09-03", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2024-09-03", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2024-09-03", "2025-09-01"]
valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
test: ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-10"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2026-01-04"
end_time: "2026-08-10"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2021 (trace exp 55) — 2y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-2y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2022-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2018-08-31"
fit_end_time: "2020-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2018-08-31", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2018-08-31", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2018-08-31", "2020-08-31"]
valid: ["2020-09-01", "2020-12-31"]
test: ["2021-01-04", "2021-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2021-01-04"
end_time: "2021-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2023 (trace exp 55) — 2y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-2y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2024-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2020-08-31"
fit_end_time: "2022-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2020-08-31", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2020-08-31", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2020-08-31", "2022-08-31"]
valid: ["2022-09-01", "2022-12-30"]
test: ["2023-01-03", "2023-12-29"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2023-01-03"
end_time: "2023-12-29"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2024 (trace exp 55) — 2y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-2y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2025-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2021-08-31"
fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2021-08-31", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2021-08-31", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2021-08-31", "2023-08-31"]
valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
test: ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2024-01-02"
end_time: "2024-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2025 (trace exp 55) — 2y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-2y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-01-07"
fit_start_time: "2022-08-31"
fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2022-08-31", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2022-08-31", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2022-08-31", "2024-08-30"]
valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
test: ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2025-01-02"
end_time: "2025-12-31"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2026 (trace exp 55) — 2y training window
# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-2y" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
start_time: "2015-01-03"
end_time: "2026-08-10"
fit_start_time: "2023-09-01"
fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2023-09-01", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2023-09-01", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: ["2023-09-01", "2025-09-01"]
valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
test: ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-10"]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: "2026-01-04"
end_time: "2026-08-10"
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
+141
View File
@@ -0,0 +1,141 @@
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
# ISOLATION: multi-seed RankIC ensemble, ablate-B generic-only feature set.
#
# Isolates the ensemble effect on the SP-5d rank signal. Same panel, segments,
# history (full backfilled 2016+) and feature set as the exp-9 ablate-B winner
# (generic-only sp_* families: jump,har,trend,hurst,signature), but replaces the
# single RankICLGBModel with a 5-seed RankICEnsembleLGBModel (42,7,2026,99,123)
# that averages per-day predictions.
#
# Differs from exp-15 (tac-rd-rank-ensemble, mlflow exp 15) ONLY by dropping the
# TA subset (rsi_14,roc_10,macd_hist,willr_14,atr_14) and the inter-asset xr_*
# features, so any change vs exp-15 is attributable to the feature set alone,
# and any change vs exp-9 is attributable to the ensemble + full history alone.
#
# Run:
# rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp12_isolation_ensemble.yaml \
# experiment_name=tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
markets: {}
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs:
uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated"
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-14
fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
infer_processors:
- class: DropAllNaN
kwargs: {}
- class: ProcessInf
kwargs: {}
- class: CSRankNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: ZScoreNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: Fillna
kwargs: {}
segments:
train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
record:
- class: SignalRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs: {}
- class: SigAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
ana_long_short: true
ann_scaler: 252
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs:
signal: "<PRED>"
topk: 10
n_drop: 2
only_tradable: true
risk_degree: 0.95
backtest:
start_time: 2026-01-04
end_time: 2026-08-10
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,136 @@
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
# EXP 14 - Strategy A (baseline): reference model + TopkDropout.
#
# Model = RankICEnsembleLGBModel (5-seed RankIC-early-stopped LGB), the class
# wired by the tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated reference (run 0cea66d9...).
# Strategy = TopkDropout topk=10 n_drop=2 risk_degree=0.95 (the reference's own
# recorded backtest strategy), so this run reproduces the reference baseline on
# the same 50-ETF SP-5d panel.
#
# Run:
# rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/a_topk_baseline.yaml \
# experiment_name=tac-rd-optstop-v2
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
markets: {}
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs:
uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-optstop-v2"
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-14
fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
infer_processors:
- class: DropAllNaN
kwargs: {}
- class: ProcessInf
kwargs: {}
- class: CSRankNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: ZScoreNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: Fillna
kwargs: {}
segments:
train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
record:
- class: SignalRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs: {}
- class: SigAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
ana_long_short: true
ann_scaler: 252
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs:
signal: "<PRED>"
topk: 10
n_drop: 2
only_tradable: true
risk_degree: 0.95
backtest:
start_time: 2026-01-04
end_time: 2026-08-10
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,149 @@
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
# EXP 14 - Strategy B (enhanced): reference model + OptimalStopControlV2.
#
# Model = RankICEnsembleLGBModel (5-seed RankIC-early-stopped LGB), identical to
# Strategy A. Strategy = OptimalStopControlV2 (tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.
# optimal_stop_v2) with the controls that address OptimalStopControl's documented
# weaknesses:
# - turnover / cost control: rebalance_band=0.05 (skip small rebalances),
# cooldown_days=3 (no whipsaw re-entries), max_turnover=0.30 (cap daily
# traded notional, priority exits > opens > rebalances)
# - robust thresholds (no valid-window overfit): entry 0.85 / exit 0.70 /
# max_hold 10 / min_hold 2 / sl -0.08
# Sizing = equal-weight control (risk_degree fraction of total value split
# across targets) - the "proper allocation" that replaces cash-heuristic sizing.
#
# Run:
# rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/b_optstop_v2.yaml \
# experiment_name=tac-rd-optstop-v2
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
markets: {}
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs:
uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-optstop-v2"
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-14
fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
infer_processors:
- class: DropAllNaN
kwargs: {}
- class: ProcessInf
kwargs: {}
- class: CSRankNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: ZScoreNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: Fillna
kwargs: {}
segments:
train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
record:
- class: SignalRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs: {}
- class: SigAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
ana_long_short: true
ann_scaler: 252
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: OptimalStopControlV2
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.optimal_stop_v2
kwargs:
signal: "<PRED>"
topk: 10
entry_pct: 0.85
exit_pct: 0.70
max_hold_days: 10
min_hold_days: 2
sl: -0.08
risk_degree: 0.95
notional: 20000
rebalance_band: 0.05
cooldown_days: 3
max_turnover: 0.30
backtest:
start_time: 2026-01-04
end_time: 2026-08-10
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d