queue: pre-register Series 2 (Q12-Q20) targeting unproven book hypotheses

Series 1 (Q01-Q11, exp 33-43) executed and folded into book/CLAIMS.md.
Series 2 covers the remaining HYPOTHESIS rows and open questions:
  Q12 22d label + weekly recompute (untested combo)
  Q13 weekly rebalance reproduction on a 2nd OOS window
  Q14 out-of-universe validation (single-stock panel, needs lake backfill)
  Q15 5-seed vs single-seed clean A/B
  Q16 hmm family as features
  Q17 realized-moments family as features
  Q18 OptimalStopControl clean re-test
  Q19/Q20 martingale-VR + effective-names scripted studies

Each workflow pins one-variable change vs exp-26 reference and acceptance.

code/MANIFEST.txt

@@ -1,28 +1,27 @@
 # TradeAC custom-qlib-code snapshot (auto-generated)
-# parent repo HEAD : e1781f606b8d0e1df4ce06fd272e97eb9435b975
+# parent repo HEAD : c2edfe6671f17a364a27ecf9619df25f194f43e6
 #   tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib
 #   tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data
 # per-file hashes (git hash-object):
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code/tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/weekly_rebalance.py

@@ -1,202 +0,0 @@
-"""Weekly-rebalance TopkDropout strategy.
-
-Turnover-reduction variant of ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy``:
-the topk/n_drop selection and sizing are identical to the reference, but the
-target book is recomputed only on the first trading day of each ISO week; on the
-other days the strategy issues NO orders (holds the book untouched).
-
-The weekly cadence is derived from the qlib trade calendar: a rebalance happens
-when the current trade step's date belongs to a different ISO ``(year, week)``
-than the previous trade step. ``hold_band_pct`` (default 0) optionally skips
-tiny rebalances: when a name's existing position differs from the new target by
-less than this fraction, no order is generated for it.
-"""
-
-from __future__ import annotations
-
-from typing import List
-
-import numpy as np
-import pandas as pd
-
-from qlib.backtest import Order
-from qlib.backtest.decision import OrderDir, TradeDecisionWO
-from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
-
-__all__ = ["WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy"]
-
-DEFAULT_HOLD_BAND_PCT = 0.0
-
-
-class WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
-    """TopkDropout rebalanced once per ISO week; holds otherwise.
-
-    Parameters
-    ----------
-    topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
-    forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
-    hold_band_pct : skip order for a name whose deviation from target weight is
-        below this fraction of the target (no-trade buffer band).
-    """
-
-    def __init__(self, *, topk, n_drop, hold_band_pct: float = DEFAULT_HOLD_BAND_PCT, **kwargs):
-        super().__init__(topk=topk, n_drop=n_drop, **kwargs)
-        self.hold_band_pct = hold_band_pct
-
-    @staticmethod
-    def _iso_week(ts) -> tuple:
-        return (ts.year, ts.week)
-
-    def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
-        import copy
-
-        trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
-        trade_start_time, trade_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
-
-        cur_week = self._iso_week(trade_start_time)
-        prev_week = getattr(self, "_last_week", None)
-        self._last_week = cur_week
-
-        if prev_week is not None and prev_week == cur_week:
-            # not the first trading day of this ISO week -> hold
-            return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
-
-        pred_start_time, pred_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step, shift=1)
-        pred_score = self.signal.get_signal(start_time=pred_start_time, end_time=pred_end_time)
-        if isinstance(pred_score, pd.DataFrame):
-            pred_score = pred_score.iloc[:, 0]
-        if pred_score is None:
-            return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
-
-        if self.only_tradable:
-
-            def get_first_n(li, n, reverse=False):
-                cur_n = 0
-                res = []
-                for si in reversed(li) if reverse else li:
-                    if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
-                        stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
-                    ):
-                        res.append(si)
-                        cur_n += 1
-                        if cur_n >= n:
-                            break
-                return res[::-1] if reverse else res
-
-            def get_last_n(li, n):
-                return get_first_n(li, n, reverse=True)
-
-            def filter_stock(li):
-                return [
-                    si
-                    for si in li
-                    if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
-                        stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
-                    )
-                ]
-
-        else:
-
-            def get_first_n(li, n):
-                return list(li)[:n]
-
-            def get_last_n(li, n):
-                return list(li)[-n:]
-
-            def filter_stock(li):
-                return li
-
-        current_temp: "object" = copy.deepcopy(self.trade_position)
-        sell_order_list: List[Order] = []
-        buy_order_list: List[Order] = []
-        cash = current_temp.get_cash()
-        current_stock_list = current_temp.get_stock_list()
-        last = pred_score.reindex(current_stock_list).sort_values(ascending=False).index
-
-        if self.method_buy == "top":
-            today = get_first_n(
-                pred_score[~pred_score.index.isin(last)].sort_values(ascending=False).index,
-                self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last),
-            )
-        elif self.method_buy == "random":
-            topk_candi = get_first_n(pred_score.sort_values(ascending=False).index, self.topk)
-            candi = list(filter(lambda x: x not in last, topk_candi))
-            n = self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last)
-            try:
-                today = np.random.choice(candi, n, replace=False)
-            except ValueError:
-                today = candi
-        else:
-            raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
-
-        comb = pred_score.reindex(last.union(pd.Index(today))).sort_values(ascending=False).index
-
-        if self.method_sell == "bottom":
-            sell = last[last.isin(get_last_n(comb, self.n_drop))]
-        elif self.method_sell == "random":
-            candi = filter_stock(last)
-            try:
-                sell = pd.Index(np.random.choice(candi, self.n_drop, replace=False) if len(last) else [])
-            except ValueError:
-                sell = candi
-        else:
-            raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
-
-        buy = today[: len(sell) + self.topk - len(last)]
-        for code in current_stock_list:
-            if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
-                stock_id=code,
-                start_time=trade_start_time,
-                end_time=trade_end_time,
-                direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.SELL,
-            ):
-                continue
-            if code in sell:
-                time_per_step = self.trade_calendar.get_freq()
-                if current_temp.get_stock_count(code, bar=time_per_step) < self.hold_thresh:
-                    continue
-                sell_amount = current_temp.get_stock_amount(code=code)
-                sell_order = Order(
-                    stock_id=code,
-                    amount=sell_amount,
-                    start_time=trade_start_time,
-                    end_time=trade_end_time,
-                    direction=Order.SELL,
-                )
-                if self.trade_exchange.check_order(sell_order):
-                    sell_order_list.append(sell_order)
-                    trade_val, trade_cost, trade_price = self.trade_exchange.deal_order(
-                        sell_order, position=current_temp
-                    )
-                    cash += trade_val - trade_cost
-
-        if len(buy) == 0:
-            return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list, self)
-
-        value = cash * self.risk_degree / len(buy)
-        for code in buy:
-            if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
-                stock_id=code,
-                start_time=trade_start_time,
-                end_time=trade_end_time,
-                direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.BUY,
-            ):
-                continue
-            buy_price = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
-                stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time, direction=OrderDir.BUY
-            )
-            buy_amount = value / buy_price
-            factor = self.trade_exchange.get_factor(
-                stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
-            )
-            buy_amount = self.trade_exchange.round_amount_by_trade_unit(buy_amount, factor)
-            buy_order = Order(
-                stock_id=code,
-                amount=buy_amount,
-                start_time=trade_start_time,
-                end_time=trade_end_time,
-                direction=Order.BUY,
-            )
-            buy_order_list.append(buy_order)
-
-        return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list + buy_order_list, self)

queue/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
+# TradeAC Experiment Queue — Series 2 (Q12+)
+
+**Purpose.** The next pre-registered batch of experiments, continuing Series 1
+(Q01–Q11, exp 33–43, all executed and folded into `book/CLAIMS.md` /
+`book/EVIDENCE.md`). Each entry targets a still-unproven `HYPOTHESIS` from the
+book or an open question flagged in `CLAIMS.md`/`book/README.md`, and follows the
+Series-1 discipline: one variable changed vs the exp-26 reference, acceptance
+fixed BEFORE the run, sequential execution, trace-first, verify-then-close.
+
+**Reference / control (MUST reproduce first).** exp 26 (`21afc6af…`, mlflow exp
+25) is the campaign baseline; exp 39 (Q07, weekly rebalance) is the best
+construction. Reference config is byte-reproduced in `workflows/exp26/` on the
+`exp/26-…` branch and in this dir's `workflows/*.yaml`.
+
+| Config element | exp-26 reference value |
+|---|---|
+| Universe | 50-ETF panel (`UNIVERSE` below) |
+| Features | compact stochastic 25-field set (no ou/hmm/moments/garch) |
+| Label | `Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1` (5d) |
+| Model | `RankICEnsembleLGBModel`, seeds `42,7,2026,99,123`, lr 0.02, leaves 31, 3000 rounds, ES 200 |
+| Segments | train 2016-01-04..2025-09-01 / valid 2025-09-03..2026-01-03 / test 2026-01-04..2026-08-10 |
+| Strategy | TopkDropout, topk 10, n_drop 1, risk_degree 0.95 |
+| Costs | open 0.0005 / close 0.0015 / min $5, deal $close, SPY benchmark, $1M |
+
+**Reference metrics to beat (EVIDENCE#015):** net_ann +2.13%, net_IR 0.21, gross
++7.02%, maxDD −7.69%, RankIC 0.0663, RankICIR 0.2545, L/S Sharpe 4.54. Weekly
+(Q07, EVIDENCE#028): net +12.51%, IR 1.24, maxDD −4.13%, ~1.1pp cost drag.
+
+## The queue (ordered by value × feasibility)
+
+| ID | Title / hypothesis | Change vs reference (ONE var) | Acceptance | Config | Ready? |
+|----|--------------------|-------------------------------|------------|--------|--------|
+| Q12 | **22d label + weekly recompute** — the untested combo: Q05's label edge (IC 0.097, RankIC 0.117) with Q07's cost relief | label → 22d AND strategy → weekly (two coupled, explicitly pre-registered) | net_IR > 0.5, net_ann > +5%, cost drag ≤ 2pp | `workflows/q12_label22d_weekly.yaml` | ✅ |
+| Q13 | **Weekly rebalance reproduction on a 2nd window** — Q07 was a single OOS window; reproduce on test 2025-01-02..2025-12-31 before promoting to a live round | segments only (shifted) | net_IR > 0.21, net_ann > +2.13% on the new window | `workflows/q13_weekly_second_window.yaml` | ✅ |
+| Q14 | **Out-of-universe validation** — compact stochastic set generalizes off the 50-ETF panel to a single-stock universe | universe → 30 liquid single names | RankIC > 0.03, ICIR > 0.15, net IR > 0 on stocks | `workflows/q14_out_of_universe.yaml` | ⚠️ needs stock-lake backfill (see design) |
+| Q15 | **5-seed vs single-model clean A/B** — seed-count claim (exp 12 idea, re-validated exp 22–24, never a clean A/B) | seeds → 1 (`2026`) | single-model RankIC/IR < 5-seed ref; net_IR ≥ 0.21 acceptable if ≥ single | `workflows/q15_single_seed.yaml` | ✅ |
+| Q16 | **HMM family added as features** — settles "dropping model-specific (ou,hmm) improves signal" (exp 25 tested OU; hmm-as-feature untested) | features += `sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state` | no improvement: RankIC ≤ 0.0663, net_IR ≤ 0.21 | `workflows/q16_hmm_features.yaml` | ✅ |
+| Q17 | **Realized-moments family added** — settles "moment/volatility families regress" (exp 11 idea, never clean A/B) | features += `sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22` | no improvement: RankIC ≤ 0.0663, net_IR ≤ 0.21 | `workflows/q17_moments_features.yaml` | ✅ |
+| Q18 | **OptimalStopControl clean re-test** — exp 13/14 claim (TopkDropout > stop-control) never re-tested post-reset | strategy → `OptimalStopControl` (exp-13 params) | TopkDropout net_IR ≥ stop-control net_IR; document cost drag | `workflows/q18_optstop.yaml` | ✅ (module verified in venv) |
+| Q19 | **Martingale / variance-ratio study close-out** — exp 19 never closed; VR<1 at 5–20d on clean lake | ad-hoc script (no qrun) | VR stats + drift decomposition on 50-ETF panel | `designs/q19_martingale_vr.md` | ✅ script |
+| Q20 | **Effective independent names (≈4)** — eigenvalue analysis on clean-lake covariance | ad-hoc script | eigenvalue spectrum + effective-rank count | `designs/q20_effective_names.md` | ✅ script |
+
+### Deferred (methodology / infra, P3)
+- Purged / walk-forward CV (was queue's old Q12) — methodology, not an alpha lever.
+- PSI-based drift-aware retraining cadence — needs a drift-gate module + a retrain decision rule.
+- No-trade buffer band / notional-vs-qty sizing — siblings of Q12/Q13; queue only if weekly reproduces.
+- Macro/drift overlays (SPY>200d regime gate, momentum tilt) — needs new data pipeline.
+
+## Execution protocol (per queued run)
+
+1. **Validate the lake first** (`validate_lake_dataset` + `rd_status`) — clean-lake lesson: silent NaN-drops and hollow coverage invalidate a run. Q14 additionally requires backfilling the single-stock universe (bars + sp/ta features, full range, explicit `start`/`end`).
+2. **Trace before running** (`rd_trace_start` with the hypothesis as `rational`, fresh `experiment_name`, `evolved_from=auto`).
+3. **Run** `rd_run_workflow config_path=<abs path to the queue YAML> experiment_name=<fresh name>` — `wait=false`, poll `rd_exp_get_run` until `FINISHED`.
+4. **Verify against acceptance** via `rd_exp_result` (headline + backtest risk).
+5. **Finish the trace** (`rd_trace_finish` with `metrics` + `evaluation`), snapshot any changed contrib modules.
+6. **Report to the book** — PROVE/REFUTE → update `book/CLAIMS.md` + `book/EVIDENCE.md`.
+
+Sequential execution only (concurrent runs hang — chat-ideas.md ops lesson). Any
+custom strategy/module changed here must be copied into the venv site-packages
+snapshot before `rd_run_workflow` can import it (see `/app/AGENTS.md`). As of
+2026-08-20 `WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy` and `OptimalStopControl` are verified
+in sync with the venv snapshot; the lake already persists the `sp_hmm_*` and
+`sp_moments` families on the 50-ETF panel.
+
+## Provenance
+
+Mined 2026-08-20 from `book/CLAIMS.md`, `book/EVIDENCE.md`, `book/README.md`,
+`book/references/chat-ideas.md`, and Series-1 `queue/` (Q01–Q11, executed exp
+33–43). Reference numbers are post-clean-lake (exp 21+).

queue/designs/q19_martingale_vr.md

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+# QUEUE-19 — Martingale / variance-ratio study close-out (no qrun)
+
+**Status:** QUEUED · **Priority:** P2 · **Effort:** ad-hoc script under `book/data/`
+
+## Hypothesis (settle)
+Assets are submartingales long-horizon / mean-reverting short-horizon
+(`VR < 1` at 5–20d). CLAIMS.md marks this HYPOTHESIS (chat-derived martingale
+study; exp 19 was opened but never closed). It is a market-structure claim, not a
+trading claim — settle it with a clean-lake script, then close exp 19 or open a
+scripted EVIDENCE entry.
+
+## Method (persist everything under `book/data/evidence/q19-vr/`)
+1. Load the 50-ETF panel 1d bars from the lake for 2015-01-01..2026-08-19.
+2. Compute the Lo–MacKinlay variance ratio at horizons 5 / 10 / 20d per symbol,
+   with heteroskedasticity-robust z-stats.
+3. Report: per-horizon VR distribution, fraction of symbols with VR < 1 and the
+   z-significance, pooled drift vs daily variance (submartingale check).
+4. Cross-check the pooled `sp_trend_slope_5` regression beta claim (β ≈ −0.53,
+   t ≈ −24) on the clean lake.
+5. Write `VR_stats.csv` + a one-page summary into the evidence dir.
+
+## Acceptance
+- VR < 1 at 5–20d for a material fraction of the panel with |z| > 2 → supports
+  the mean-reversion HYPOTHESIS; else mark REFUTED or REFERENCED.
+- The result updates CLAIMS.md's "Assets are submartingales…" row and closes the
+  exp-19 open thread.

queue/designs/q20_effective_names.md

@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+# QUEUE-20 — Effective independent names in the 50-ETF book (no qrun)
+
+**Status:** QUEUED · **Priority:** P2 · **Effort:** ad-hoc script under `book/data/`
+
+## Hypothesis (settle)
+The 50-ETF book has only ~4 effective independent names (CLAIMS.md HYPOTHESIS,
+chat-derived eigenvalue analysis, pre-reset). This is a concentration/diversification
+claim with direct sizing relevance; verify it on the clean lake.
+
+## Method (persist everything under `book/data/evidence/q20-effective-names/`)
+1. Load the 50-ETF panel 1d returns from the lake for the test window 2026-01-04..2026-08-10.
+2. Standardize returns; compute the correlation matrix and its eigendecomposition.
+3. Count eigenvalues above the Marchenko–Pastur bound (N=50, T≈150) and report the
+   cumulative-variance share of the top k components.
+4. Effective-rank measures: participation ratio `(Σλ)² / Σλ²` and cumulative 80%
+   variance count.
+5. Write `eigenanalysis.csv` + a one-page summary.
+
+## Acceptance
+- If effective rank ≈ 4 (top-4 explain ~80%+ variance), the concentration claim is
+  PROVEN and feeds chapter 08 sizing guidance (why topk 10→20 adds no breadth).
+- If effective rank is much larger, mark the claim REFUTED.

queue/workflows/q12_label22d_weekly.yaml

@@ -1,6 +1,16 @@
-# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2026
+# QUEUE-12 — Long-horizon label (22d) + weekly recompute construction.
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
+# Untested combination from book/CLAIMS.md open questions: Q05 (exp 37) proved the
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+# 22d label has the strongest signal (IC 0.097, RankIC 0.117) but daily turnover
+# killed the book (net -4.60%); Q07 (exp 39) proved weekly recompute is the cost
+# lever (net +12.51%). Hypothesis: pairing them monetizes the label edge.
+# Change vs exp-26 reference: label 5d -> 22d AND strategy -> WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy.
+# Acceptance: net_IR > 0.5, net_ann > +5%, cost drag <= 2pp.
+# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q12_label22d_weekly.yaml \
+#        experiment_name=tac-rd-q12-label22d-weekly
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+
 qlib_init:
     provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
     region: us
@@ -18,7 +28,7 @@ qlib_init:
     exp_manager:
         class: MLflowExpManager
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q12-label22d-weekly" }
 
 task:
     model:
@@ -39,7 +49,7 @@ task:
             reg_alpha: 0.1
             reg_lambda: 1.0
             seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-            parallel: 5
+
     dataset:
         class: DatasetH
         module_path: qlib.data.dataset
@@ -48,16 +58,16 @@ task:
                 class: TACHandler
                 module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
                 kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: "2026-08-19"
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
-                    fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
                     freq: day
                     lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                     market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    label: "Ref($close,-23)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
                     infer_processors:
                         - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
                         - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
@@ -65,9 +75,9 @@ task:
                         - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
                         - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
             segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
-                valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
-                test:  ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
 
     record:
         - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
@@ -81,15 +91,15 @@ task:
                       module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
                       kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
                   backtest:
-                      start_time: "2026-01-04"
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
-                      end_time: "2026-08-19"
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
                       account: 1000000
                       benchmark: SPY
                       exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
                           deal_price: $close
                           freq: day
                           open_cost: 0.0005
                           close_cost: 0.0015
                           min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

queue/workflows/q13_weekly_second_window.yaml

@@ -1,6 +1,17 @@
-# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2025
+# QUEUE-13 — Weekly rebalance reproduction on a second OOS window.
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
+# Q07 (exp 39) proved weekly recompute on test 2026-01-04..2026-08-10 (net +12.51%,
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+# IR 1.24) but that is a single OOS window. Before promoting the weekly construction
+# to a live round, reproduce it on a disjoint window: test 2025-01-02..2025-12-31
+# with train/valid shifted to end 2024.
+# Change vs exp-26 reference: segments shifted only (train ends 2024-08, test = 2025);
+# strategy is the SAME weekly recompute as exp 39. Label stays 5d.
+# Acceptance: net_IR > 0.21 AND net_ann > +2.13% on the 2025 window.
+# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q13_weekly_second_window.yaml \
+#        experiment_name=tac-rd-q13-weekly-second-window
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+
 qlib_init:
     provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
     region: us
@@ -18,7 +29,7 @@ qlib_init:
     exp_manager:
         class: MLflowExpManager
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q13-weekly-second-window" }
 
 task:
     model:
@@ -39,7 +50,7 @@ task:
             reg_alpha: 0.1
             reg_lambda: 1.0
             seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-            parallel: 5
+
     dataset:
         class: DatasetH
         module_path: qlib.data.dataset
@@ -48,16 +59,16 @@ task:
                 class: TACHandler
                 module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
                 kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: "2026-01-07"
+                    end_time: 2025-12-31
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
-                    fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
+                    fit_end_time: 2024-08-30
                     freq: day
                     lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                     market: US
                     label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
                     infer_processors:
                         - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
                         - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
@@ -65,9 +76,9 @@ task:
                         - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
                         - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
             segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2024-08-30]
-                valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
+                valid: [2024-09-03, 2024-12-31]
-                test:  ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
+                test: [2025-01-02, 2025-12-31]
 
     record:
         - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
@@ -81,15 +92,15 @@ task:
                       module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
                       kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
                   backtest:
-                      start_time: "2025-01-02"
+                      start_time: 2025-01-02
-                      end_time: "2025-12-31"
+                      end_time: 2025-12-31
                       account: 1000000
                       benchmark: SPY
                       exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
                           deal_price: $close
                           freq: day
                           open_cost: 0.0005
                           close_cost: 0.0015
                           min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

queue/workflows/q14_out_of_universe.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,107 @@
+# QUEUE-14 — Out-of-universe validation: compact stochastic set on single-stock names.
+# The 50-ETF panel results (compact feature set, RankIC 0.0663) are panel-specific;
+# book/CLAIMS.md marks "generalizes to other universes" HYPOTHESIS - TODO(evidence-needed).
+# Change vs exp-26 reference: universe -> 30 liquid US single-stock names.
+# PREREQUISITE: backfill lake bars + sp/ta features for these symbols (full range,
+# explicit start/end) — the stock panel currently has only ~180d of data (2025-12-01+).
+# Backfill: get_lake_bars symbols=... start=2000-01-03 then
+#   get_lake_sp symbol=<s> start=2000-01-03 end=<today> fit_end=<train-end> persist=true
+# Acceptance: RankIC > 0.03, ICIR > 0.15, net IR > 0 on the stock universe.
+# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q14_out_of_universe.yaml \
+#        experiment_name=tac-rd-q14-out-of-universe
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "AAPL,MSFT,NVDA,AMZN,GOOGL,META,TSLA,AVGO,AMD,JPM,UNH,PG,JNJ,MA,V,WMT,DIS,HD,KO,PEP,BAC,XOM,MCD,ABBV,COST,CRM,NFLX,ORCL,IBM,T" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q14-out-of-universe" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

queue/workflows/q15_single_seed.yaml

@@ -1,6 +1,15 @@
-# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2026
+# QUEUE-15 — 5-seed vs single-model clean A/B on the compact stochastic set.
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
+# CLAIMS.md HYPOTHESIS: "5-seed RankIC ensemble raises performance vs single model
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+# on ablated set" — pre-clean-lake exp 12 idea, re-validated directionally by exp
+# 22–24, never a clean A/B post-reset. Seed count is load-bearing (exp 28: 2<5).
+# Change vs exp-26 reference: seeds "42,7,2026,99,123" -> single seed "2026".
+# Acceptance: single-model RankIC < 0.0663, net_IR < 0.21 (ensemble beats single).
+# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q15_single_seed.yaml \
+#        experiment_name=tac-rd-q15-single-seed
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+
 qlib_init:
     provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
     region: us
@@ -18,7 +27,7 @@ qlib_init:
     exp_manager:
         class: MLflowExpManager
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q15-single-seed" }
 
 task:
     model:
@@ -38,7 +47,7 @@ task:
             subsample_freq: 1
             reg_alpha: 0.1
             reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            seeds: "2026"
 
     dataset:
         class: DatasetH
@@ -48,16 +57,16 @@ task:
                 class: TACHandler
                 module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
                 kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: "2026-08-19"
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
-                    fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
                     freq: day
                     lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                     market: US
                     label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
                     infer_processors:
                         - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
                         - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
@@ -65,9 +74,9 @@ task:
                         - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
                         - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
             segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
-                valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
-                test:  ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
 
     record:
         - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
@@ -81,15 +90,15 @@ task:
                       module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
                       kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
                   backtest:
-                      start_time: "2026-01-04"
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
-                      end_time: "2026-08-19"
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
                       account: 1000000
                       benchmark: SPY
                       exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
                           deal_price: $close
                           freq: day
                           open_cost: 0.0005
                           close_cost: 0.0015
                           min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

queue/workflows/q16_hmm_features.yaml

@@ -1,6 +1,16 @@
-# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2026
+# QUEUE-16 — HMM family added as model features to the compact set.
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
+# CLAIMS.md HYPOTHESIS: "Dropping model-specific feature families (ou, hmm)
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+# improves the rank signal" — exp 25 cleanly tested OU (adding it hurts: IC 0.0511->0.0343);
+# hmm-as-features has NOT been clean A/B'd post-reset (exp 42 tested hmm as an entry
+# GATE overlay, refuted). This run adds the hmm family columns to the compact set.
+# Change vs exp-26 reference: features += sp_hmm_p_regime1, sp_hmm_state.
+# Acceptance (prune-hypothesis): no improvement — RankIC <= 0.0663, net_IR <= 0.21.
+# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q16_hmm_features.yaml \
+#        experiment_name=tac-rd-q16-hmm-features
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state" %}
+
 qlib_init:
     provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
     region: us
@@ -18,7 +28,7 @@ qlib_init:
     exp_manager:
         class: MLflowExpManager
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q16-hmm-features" }
 
 task:
     model:
@@ -39,7 +49,7 @@ task:
             reg_alpha: 0.1
             reg_lambda: 1.0
             seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-            parallel: 5
+
     dataset:
         class: DatasetH
         module_path: qlib.data.dataset
@@ -48,16 +58,16 @@ task:
                 class: TACHandler
                 module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
                 kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: "2026-08-19"
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
-                    fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
                     freq: day
                     lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                     market: US
                     label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
                     infer_processors:
                         - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
                         - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
@@ -65,9 +75,9 @@ task:
                         - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
                         - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
             segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
-                valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
-                test:  ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
 
     record:
         - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
@@ -79,17 +89,17 @@ task:
                   strategy:
                       class: TopkDropoutStrategy
                       module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
                   backtest:
-                      start_time: "2026-01-04"
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
-                      end_time: "2026-08-19"
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
                       account: 1000000
                       benchmark: SPY
                       exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
                           deal_price: $close
                           freq: day
                           open_cost: 0.0005
                           close_cost: 0.0015
                           min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

queue/workflows/q17_moments_features.yaml

@@ -1,6 +1,16 @@
-# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2024
+# QUEUE-17 — Realized-moments family added to the compact set.
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
+# CLAIMS.md HYPOTHESIS: "Adding moment/volatility families regresses the signal"
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+# (idea: pre-clean-lake exp 11). M1 momentum bundle (exp 29) and M3 GARCH (exp 31)
+# were refuted post-reset; the realized-moments family (sp_rskew/sp_rkurt/sp_dsv)
+# has NOT been clean A/B'd. This run adds the moments columns to the compact set.
+# Change vs exp-26 reference: features += sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22.
+# Acceptance (prune-hypothesis): no improvement — RankIC <= 0.0663, net_IR <= 0.21.
+# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q17_moments_features.yaml \
+#        experiment_name=tac-rd-q17-moments-features
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22" %}
+
 qlib_init:
     provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
     region: us
@@ -18,7 +28,7 @@ qlib_init:
     exp_manager:
         class: MLflowExpManager
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q17-moments-features" }
 
 task:
     model:
@@ -48,26 +58,26 @@ task:
                 class: TACHandler
                 module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
                 kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: "2025-01-07"
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
-                    fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
                     freq: day
                     lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                     market: US
                     label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
                     infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
                         - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
                         - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
                         - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
             segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
-                valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
-                test:  ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
 
     record:
         - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
@@ -81,15 +91,15 @@ task:
                       module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
                       kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
                   backtest:
-                      start_time: "2024-01-02"
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
-                      end_time: "2024-12-31"
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
                       account: 1000000
                       benchmark: SPY
                       exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
                           deal_price: $close
                           freq: day
                           open_cost: 0.0005
                           close_cost: 0.0015
                           min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

queue/workflows/q18_optstop.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,106 @@
+# QUEUE-18 — OptimalStopControl clean re-test vs TopkDropout (exp 13/14 claim).
+# CLAIMS.md HYPOTHESIS: "TopkDropout beats stochastic-control OptimalStopControl on
+# the ensemble signal" — exp 13/14 were pre-clean-lake; never re-tested post-reset.
+# Same compact signal as the exp-26 reference; ONLY the strategy changes to
+# OptimalStopControl with exp-13 params (entry 0.85 / exit 0.7 / hold 10 / sl -0.08).
+# PREREQUISITE: tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/optimal_stop.py must be synced to the venv
+# site-packages snapshot before running (see /app/AGENTS.md).
+# Acceptance: TopkDropout net_IR >= stop-control net_IR; document cost drag of both.
+# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q18_optstop.yaml \
+#        experiment_name=tac-rd-q18-optstop
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q18-optstop" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: OptimalStopControl
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.optimal_stop
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, entry_pct: 0.85, exit_pct: 0.7, max_hold_days: 10, min_hold_days: 2, sl: -0.08 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/ablate_baseline_all_sp_fields.yaml

@@ -1,133 +0,0 @@
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# ABLATION A (baseline): LightGBM with RankIC early-stopping on the 50-ETF SP-5d
-# panel, using ALL 24 sp_* feature columns (ou,hmm,jump,har,trend,hurst,
-# signature). Copy of the canonical workflow_lgb_sp5d_rankic.yaml with a
-# distinct experiment name so the ablation runs are isolated.
-#
-# Run:
-#   rd_run_workflow config_path=tac-qlib/workflows/ablate_baseline_all_sp_fields.yaml \
-#       experiment_name=tac-rd-rank-ablate
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_ou_zscore,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
-
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-            markets: {}
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs:
-            uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
-            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-rank-ablate"
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_gbdt
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seed: 42
-
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                    start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: 2026-08-10
-                    fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - class: DropAllNaN
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ProcessInf
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: CSRankNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ZScoreNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: Fillna
-                          kwargs: {}
-            segments:
-                train: [2015-01-03, 2025-09-01]
-                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
-                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
-
-    record:
-        - class: SignalRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs: {}
-        - class: SigAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              ana_long_short: true
-              ann_scaler: 252
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs:
-                          signal: "<PRED>"
-                          topk: 10
-                          n_drop: 2
-                          only_tradable: true
-                          risk_degree: 0.95
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: 2026-01-04
-                      end_time: 2026-08-10
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/ablate_generic_only_sp_fields.yaml

@@ -1,134 +0,0 @@
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# ABLATION B (generic-only): same panel/model as the baseline, but feature
-# fields restricted to the model-free / generic stochastic-process families
-# (jump,har,trend,hurst,signature). Drops the model-specific ou (OU/AR-1
-# half-life) and hmm (2-state regime) families to test whether the generic
-# families alone dominate the rank dimension.
-#
-# Run:
-#   rd_run_workflow config_path=tac-qlib/workflows/ablate_generic_only_sp_fields.yaml \
-#       experiment_name=tac-rd-rank-ablate
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
-
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-            markets: {}
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs:
-            uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
-            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-rank-ablate"
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_gbdt
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seed: 42
-
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                    start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: 2026-08-10
-                    fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - class: DropAllNaN
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ProcessInf
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: CSRankNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ZScoreNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: Fillna
-                          kwargs: {}
-            segments:
-                train: [2015-01-03, 2025-09-01]
-                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
-                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
-
-    record:
-        - class: SignalRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs: {}
-        - class: SigAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              ana_long_short: true
-              ann_scaler: 252
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs:
-                          signal: "<PRED>"
-                          topk: 10
-                          n_drop: 2
-                          only_tradable: true
-                          risk_degree: 0.95
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: 2026-01-04
-                      end_time: 2026-08-10
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/A-weekly_2024.yaml

@@ -1,95 +0,0 @@
-# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2024
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-            parallel: 5
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: "2025-01-07"
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
-                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
-                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
-            segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
-                valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
-                test:  ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
-
-    record:
-        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
-        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
-                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: "2024-01-02"
-                      end_time: "2024-12-31"
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/B-moments_2025.yaml

@@ -1,95 +0,0 @@
-# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2025
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: "2026-01-07"
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
-                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
-                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
-            segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
-                valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
-                test:  ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
-
-    record:
-        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
-        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: "2025-01-02"
-                      end_time: "2025-12-31"
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/C-ndrop2_2024.yaml

@@ -1,95 +0,0 @@
-# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2024
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-            parallel: 5
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: "2025-01-07"
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
-                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
-                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
-            segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
-                valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
-                test:  ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
-
-    record:
-        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
-        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: "2024-01-02"
-                      end_time: "2024-12-31"
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/C-ndrop2_2025.yaml

@@ -1,95 +0,0 @@
-# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2025
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-            parallel: 5
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: "2026-01-07"
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
-                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
-                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
-            segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
-                valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
-                test:  ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
-
-    record:
-        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
-        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: "2025-01-02"
-                      end_time: "2025-12-31"
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/exp12_isolation_ensemble.yaml

@@ -1,141 +0,0 @@
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# ISOLATION: multi-seed RankIC ensemble, ablate-B generic-only feature set.
-#
-# Isolates the ensemble effect on the SP-5d rank signal. Same panel, segments,
-# history (full backfilled 2016+) and feature set as the exp-9 ablate-B winner
-# (generic-only sp_* families: jump,har,trend,hurst,signature), but replaces the
-# single RankICLGBModel with a 5-seed RankICEnsembleLGBModel (42,7,2026,99,123)
-# that averages per-day predictions.
-#
-# Differs from exp-15 (tac-rd-rank-ensemble, mlflow exp 15) ONLY by dropping the
-# TA subset (rsi_14,roc_10,macd_hist,willr_14,atr_14) and the inter-asset xr_*
-# features, so any change vs exp-15 is attributable to the feature set alone,
-# and any change vs exp-9 is attributable to the ensemble + full history alone.
-#
-# Run:
-#   rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp12_isolation_ensemble.yaml \
-#       experiment_name=tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
-
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-            markets: {}
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs:
-            uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db"
-            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated"
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                    start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: 2026-08-14
-                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
-                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - class: DropAllNaN
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ProcessInf
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: CSRankNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ZScoreNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: Fillna
-                          kwargs: {}
-            segments:
-                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
-                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
-                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
-
-    record:
-        - class: SignalRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs: {}
-        - class: SigAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              ana_long_short: true
-              ann_scaler: 252
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs:
-                          signal: "<PRED>"
-                          topk: 10
-                          n_drop: 2
-                          only_tradable: true
-                          risk_degree: 0.95
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: 2026-01-04
-                      end_time: 2026-08-10
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/a_topk_baseline.yaml

@@ -1,136 +0,0 @@
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# EXP 14 - Strategy A (baseline): reference model + TopkDropout.
-#
-# Model = RankICEnsembleLGBModel (5-seed RankIC-early-stopped LGB), the class
-# wired by the tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated reference (run 0cea66d9...).
-# Strategy = TopkDropout topk=10 n_drop=2 risk_degree=0.95 (the reference's own
-# recorded backtest strategy), so this run reproduces the reference baseline on
-# the same 50-ETF SP-5d panel.
-#
-# Run:
-#   rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/a_topk_baseline.yaml \
-#       experiment_name=tac-rd-optstop-v2
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
-
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-            markets: {}
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs:
-            uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
-            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-optstop-v2"
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                    start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: 2026-08-14
-                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
-                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - class: DropAllNaN
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ProcessInf
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: CSRankNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ZScoreNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: Fillna
-                          kwargs: {}
-            segments:
-                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
-                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
-                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
-
-    record:
-        - class: SignalRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs: {}
-        - class: SigAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              ana_long_short: true
-              ann_scaler: 252
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs:
-                          signal: "<PRED>"
-                          topk: 10
-                          n_drop: 2
-                          only_tradable: true
-                          risk_degree: 0.95
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: 2026-01-04
-                      end_time: 2026-08-10
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/b_optstop_v2.yaml

@@ -1,149 +0,0 @@
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# EXP 14 - Strategy B (enhanced): reference model + OptimalStopControlV2.
-#
-# Model = RankICEnsembleLGBModel (5-seed RankIC-early-stopped LGB), identical to
-# Strategy A. Strategy = OptimalStopControlV2 (tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.
-# optimal_stop_v2) with the controls that address OptimalStopControl's documented
-# weaknesses:
-#   - turnover / cost control: rebalance_band=0.05 (skip small rebalances),
-#     cooldown_days=3 (no whipsaw re-entries), max_turnover=0.30 (cap daily
-#     traded notional, priority exits > opens > rebalances)
-#   - robust thresholds (no valid-window overfit): entry 0.85 / exit 0.70 /
-#     max_hold 10 / min_hold 2 / sl -0.08
-# Sizing = equal-weight control (risk_degree fraction of total value split
-# across targets) - the "proper allocation" that replaces cash-heuristic sizing.
-#
-# Run:
-#   rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/b_optstop_v2.yaml \
-#       experiment_name=tac-rd-optstop-v2
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
-
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-            markets: {}
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs:
-            uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
-            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-optstop-v2"
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                    start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: 2026-08-14
-                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
-                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - class: DropAllNaN
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ProcessInf
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: CSRankNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ZScoreNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: Fillna
-                          kwargs: {}
-            segments:
-                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
-                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
-                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
-
-    record:
-        - class: SignalRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs: {}
-        - class: SigAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              ana_long_short: true
-              ann_scaler: 252
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: OptimalStopControlV2
-                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.optimal_stop_v2
-                      kwargs:
-                          signal: "<PRED>"
-                          topk: 10
-                          entry_pct: 0.85
-                          exit_pct: 0.70
-                          max_hold_days: 10
-                          min_hold_days: 2
-                          sl: -0.08
-                          risk_degree: 0.95
-                          notional: 20000
-                          rebalance_band: 0.05
-                          cooldown_days: 3
-                          max_turnover: 0.30
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: 2026-01-04
-                      end_time: 2026-08-10
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d