start experiment 59 (exp/59-signal-quality-gate-walk-forward-test-wi)

book/scripts/precompute_signal_quality_gate.py

@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Precompute the signal-quality gate series and save to pickle.
+
+Usage:
+    python precompute_signal_quality_gate.py <pred_path> <output_path> [topk] [lookback] [threshold]
+
+Example:
+    python precompute_signal_quality_gate.py \
+        /home/data/lake/mlruns/49/34165f27e4a34378ad54843a079a78c0/artifacts/pred.pkl \
+        /app/experiments/book/data/signal_quality_gate/sq_gate_5d_0.50.pkl \
+        10 5 0.5
+"""
+import sys
+import pickle
+from pathlib import Path
+
+# Add tac-qlib to path
+sys.path.insert(0, "/app/tac-qlib")
+
+from tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_quality_gate import compute_signal_quality_gate
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    if len(sys.argv) < 3:
+        print(__doc__)
+        sys.exit(1)
+
+    pred_path = sys.argv[1]
+    output_path = sys.argv[2]
+    topk = int(sys.argv[3]) if len(sys.argv) > 3 else 10
+    lookback = int(sys.argv[4]) if len(sys.argv) > 4 else 5
+    threshold = float(sys.argv[5]) if len(sys.argv) > 5 else 0.5
+
+    lake_root = "/home/data/lake"
+
+    print(f"Computing signal-quality gate: topk={topk}, lookback={lookback}, threshold={threshold}")
+    gate = compute_signal_quality_gate(
+        pred_path,
+        lake_root=lake_root,
+        topk=topk,
+        lookback=lookback,
+        threshold=threshold,
+    )
+
+    print(f"Gate: {gate.sum()}/{len(gate)} days open ({gate.mean():.1%})")
+
+    with open(output_path, "wb") as f:
+        pickle.dump(gate, f)
+    print(f"Saved to {output_path}")

book/workflows/signal_quality_gate.yaml

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# ABLATION A (baseline): LightGBM with RankIC early-stopping on the 50-ETF SP-5d
+# Signal-quality gate: TopkDropout gated by rolling hit-rate of topk picks.
-# panel, using ALL 24 sp_* feature columns (ou,hmm,jump,har,trend,hurst,
-# signature). Copy of the canonical workflow_lgb_sp5d_rankic.yaml with a
-# distinct experiment name so the ablation runs are isolated.
 #
-# Run:
+# 1. Compute the gate: python precompute_signal_quality_gate.py <pred.pkl> <gate.pkl>
-#   rd_run_workflow config_path=tac-qlib/workflows/ablate_baseline_all_sp_fields.yaml \
+# 2. Run this workflow: rd_run_workflow config_path=<this yaml> experiment_name=<exp>
-#       experiment_name=tac-rd-rank-ablate
+#
+# The strategy loads the precomputed gate from signal_quality_gate_path.
+# When hit rate >= threshold, trade; otherwise, go to cash.
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 {%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
 {%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
 {%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_ou_zscore,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+{%- set GATE_PATH = "/app/experiments/book/data/signal_quality_gate/sq_gate_5d_0.50.pkl" %}
 
 qlib_init:
     provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
@@ -40,27 +40,22 @@ qlib_init:
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
         kwargs:
             uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
-            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-rank-ablate"
+            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-sq-gate"
 
 task:
     model:
-        class: RankICLGBModel
+        class: LGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_gbdt
+        module_path: qlib.contrib.model.gbdt
         kwargs:
             loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
+            learning_rate: 0.05
-            num_leaves: 31
+            num_leaves: 15
-            n_estimators: 3000
+            n_estimators: 200
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
             colsample_bytree: 0.8
             subsample: 0.8
             subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_alpha: 0.01
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            reg_lambda: 0.01
-            seed: 42
 
     dataset:
         class: DatasetH
@@ -110,12 +105,13 @@ task:
           kwargs:
               config:
                   strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      class: SignalQualityGateStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_quality_gate
                       kwargs:
                           signal: "<PRED>"
+                          signal_quality_gate_path: "{{ GATE_PATH }}"
                           topk: 10
-                          n_drop: 2
+                          n_drop: 1
                           only_tradable: true
                           risk_degree: 0.95
                   backtest:

book/workflows/sq_gate/sq_gate_2021.yaml

@@ -1,74 +1,44 @@
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Signal-quality gate backtest for 2021
-# ISOLATION: multi-seed RankIC ensemble, ablate-B generic-only feature set.
-#
-# Isolates the ensemble effect on the SP-5d rank signal. Same panel, segments,
-# history (full backfilled 2016+) and feature set as the exp-9 ablate-B winner
-# (generic-only sp_* families: jump,har,trend,hurst,signature), but replaces the
-# single RankICLGBModel with a 5-seed RankICEnsembleLGBModel (42,7,2026,99,123)
-# that averages per-day predictions.
-#
-# Differs from exp-15 (tac-rd-rank-ensemble, mlflow exp 15) ONLY by dropping the
-# TA subset (rsi_14,roc_10,macd_hist,willr_14,atr_14) and the inter-asset xr_*
-# features, so any change vs exp-15 is attributable to the feature set alone,
-# and any change vs exp-9 is attributable to the ensemble + full history alone.
-#
-# Run:
-#   rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp12_isolation_ensemble.yaml \
-#       experiment_name=tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 {%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
 {%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_ou_zscore,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+{# Gate computed on-the-fly from signal + lake close prices #}
 
 qlib_init:
     provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
     region: us
     expression_cache: null
     dataset_cache: null
-
     calendar_provider:
         class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs:
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
     instrument_provider:
         class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs:
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-            markets: {}
     feature_provider:
         class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs:
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-
     exp_manager:
         class: MLflowExpManager
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
         kwargs:
-            uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db"
+            uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
-            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated"
+            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-sq-gate-2021"
 
 task:
     model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        class: LGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        module_path: qlib.contrib.model.gbdt
         kwargs:
             loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
+            learning_rate: 0.05
-            num_leaves: 31
+            num_leaves: 15
-            n_estimators: 3000
+            n_estimators: 200
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
             colsample_bytree: 0.8
             subsample: 0.8
             subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_alpha: 0.01
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            reg_lambda: 0.01
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
 
     dataset:
         class: DatasetH
@@ -80,9 +50,9 @@ task:
                 kwargs:
                     instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
                     start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: 2026-08-14
+                    end_time: 2021-12-31
-                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    fit_end_time: 2021-01-03
                     freq: day
                     lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                     market: US
@@ -100,9 +70,9 @@ task:
                         - class: Fillna
                           kwargs: {}
             segments:
-                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                train: [2015-01-03, 2020-09-01]
-                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                valid: [2020-09-03, 2021-01-03]
-                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+                test: [2021-01-04, 2021-12-31]
 
     record:
         - class: SignalRecord
@@ -110,25 +80,29 @@ task:
           kwargs: {}
         - class: SigAnaRecord
           module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
+          kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 }
-              ana_long_short: true
-              ann_scaler: 252
         - class: PortAnaRecord
           module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
           kwargs:
               config:
                   strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      class: SignalQualityGateStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_quality_gate
                       kwargs:
                           signal: "<PRED>"
+                          lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                          gate_topk: 10
+                          gate_lookback: 5
+                          gate_threshold: 0.5
+                          gate_start: "2015-01-03"
+                          gate_end: "2021-12-31"
                           topk: 10
-                          n_drop: 2
+                          n_drop: 1
                           only_tradable: true
                           risk_degree: 0.95
                   backtest:
-                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      start_time: 2021-01-04
-                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      end_time: 2021-12-31
                       account: 1000000
                       benchmark: SPY
                       exchange_kwargs:

book/workflows/sq_gate/sq_gate_2023.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,115 @@
+# Signal-quality gate backtest for 2023
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_ou_zscore,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+{# Gate computed on-the-fly from signal + lake close prices #}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs:
+            uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
+            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-sq-gate-2023"
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: LGBModel
+        module_path: qlib.contrib.model.gbdt
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.05
+            num_leaves: 15
+            n_estimators: 200
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.01
+            reg_lambda: 0.01
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2023-12-29
+                    fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    fit_end_time: 2023-01-03
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - class: DropAllNaN
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: ProcessInf
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: CSRankNorm
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: ZScoreNorm
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: Fillna
+                          kwargs: {}
+            segments:
+                train: [2015-01-03, 2022-09-01]
+                valid: [2022-09-03, 2023-01-03]
+                test: [2023-01-03, 2023-12-29]
+
+    record:
+        - class: SignalRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs: {}
+        - class: SigAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: SignalQualityGateStrategy
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_quality_gate
+                      kwargs:
+                          signal: "<PRED>"
+                          lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                          gate_topk: 10
+                          gate_lookback: 5
+                          gate_threshold: 0.5
+                          gate_start: "2015-01-03"
+                          gate_end: "2023-12-29"
+                          topk: 10
+                          n_drop: 1
+                          only_tradable: true
+                          risk_degree: 0.95
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2023-01-03
+                      end_time: 2023-12-29
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

book/workflows/sq_gate/sq_gate_2024.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,115 @@
+# Signal-quality gate backtest for 2024
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_ou_zscore,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+{# Gate computed on-the-fly from signal + lake close prices #}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs:
+            uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
+            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-sq-gate-2024"
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: LGBModel
+        module_path: qlib.contrib.model.gbdt
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.05
+            num_leaves: 15
+            n_estimators: 200
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.01
+            reg_lambda: 0.01
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2024-12-31
+                    fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    fit_end_time: 2024-01-03
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - class: DropAllNaN
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: ProcessInf
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: CSRankNorm
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: ZScoreNorm
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: Fillna
+                          kwargs: {}
+            segments:
+                train: [2015-01-03, 2023-09-01]
+                valid: [2023-09-03, 2024-01-03]
+                test: [2024-01-02, 2024-12-31]
+
+    record:
+        - class: SignalRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs: {}
+        - class: SigAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: SignalQualityGateStrategy
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_quality_gate
+                      kwargs:
+                          signal: "<PRED>"
+                          lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                          gate_topk: 10
+                          gate_lookback: 5
+                          gate_threshold: 0.5
+                          gate_start: "2015-01-03"
+                          gate_end: "2024-12-31"
+                          topk: 10
+                          n_drop: 1
+                          only_tradable: true
+                          risk_degree: 0.95
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2024-01-02
+                      end_time: 2024-12-31
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

book/workflows/sq_gate/sq_gate_2025.yaml

@@ -1,69 +1,44 @@
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Signal-quality gate backtest for 2025
-# EXP 14 - Strategy A (baseline): reference model + TopkDropout.
-#
-# Model = RankICEnsembleLGBModel (5-seed RankIC-early-stopped LGB), the class
-# wired by the tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated reference (run 0cea66d9...).
-# Strategy = TopkDropout topk=10 n_drop=2 risk_degree=0.95 (the reference's own
-# recorded backtest strategy), so this run reproduces the reference baseline on
-# the same 50-ETF SP-5d panel.
-#
-# Run:
-#   rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/a_topk_baseline.yaml \
-#       experiment_name=tac-rd-optstop-v2
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 {%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
 {%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_ou_zscore,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+{# Gate computed on-the-fly from signal + lake close prices #}
 
 qlib_init:
     provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
     region: us
     expression_cache: null
     dataset_cache: null
-
     calendar_provider:
         class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs:
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
     instrument_provider:
         class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs:
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-            markets: {}
     feature_provider:
         class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs:
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-
     exp_manager:
         class: MLflowExpManager
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
         kwargs:
             uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
-            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-optstop-v2"
+            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-sq-gate-2025"
 
 task:
     model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        class: LGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        module_path: qlib.contrib.model.gbdt
         kwargs:
             loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
+            learning_rate: 0.05
-            num_leaves: 31
+            num_leaves: 15
-            n_estimators: 3000
+            n_estimators: 200
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
             colsample_bytree: 0.8
             subsample: 0.8
             subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_alpha: 0.01
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            reg_lambda: 0.01
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
 
     dataset:
         class: DatasetH
@@ -75,9 +50,9 @@ task:
                 kwargs:
                     instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
                     start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: 2026-08-14
+                    end_time: 2025-12-31
-                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    fit_end_time: 2026-01-03
                     freq: day
                     lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                     market: US
@@ -95,9 +70,9 @@ task:
                         - class: Fillna
                           kwargs: {}
             segments:
-                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                train: [2015-01-03, 2025-09-01]
                 valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
-                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+                test: [2025-01-02, 2025-12-31]
 
     record:
         - class: SignalRecord
@@ -105,25 +80,29 @@ task:
           kwargs: {}
         - class: SigAnaRecord
           module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
+          kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 }
-              ana_long_short: true
-              ann_scaler: 252
         - class: PortAnaRecord
           module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
           kwargs:
               config:
                   strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      class: SignalQualityGateStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_quality_gate
                       kwargs:
                           signal: "<PRED>"
+                          lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                          gate_topk: 10
+                          gate_lookback: 5
+                          gate_threshold: 0.5
+                          gate_start: "2015-01-03"
+                          gate_end: "2025-12-31"
                           topk: 10
-                          n_drop: 2
+                          n_drop: 1
                           only_tradable: true
                           risk_degree: 0.95
                   backtest:
-                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      start_time: 2025-01-02
-                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      end_time: 2025-12-31
                       account: 1000000
                       benchmark: SPY
                       exchange_kwargs:

book/workflows/sq_gate/sq_gate_2026.yaml

@@ -1,67 +1,44 @@
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Signal-quality gate backtest for 2026
-# ABLATION B (generic-only): same panel/model as the baseline, but feature
-# fields restricted to the model-free / generic stochastic-process families
-# (jump,har,trend,hurst,signature). Drops the model-specific ou (OU/AR-1
-# half-life) and hmm (2-state regime) families to test whether the generic
-# families alone dominate the rank dimension.
-#
-# Run:
-#   rd_run_workflow config_path=tac-qlib/workflows/ablate_generic_only_sp_fields.yaml \
-#       experiment_name=tac-rd-rank-ablate
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 {%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
 {%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_ou_zscore,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+{# Gate computed on-the-fly from signal + lake close prices #}
 
 qlib_init:
     provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
     region: us
     expression_cache: null
     dataset_cache: null
-
     calendar_provider:
         class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs:
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
     instrument_provider:
         class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs:
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-            markets: {}
     feature_provider:
         class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs:
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-
     exp_manager:
         class: MLflowExpManager
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
         kwargs:
             uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
-            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-rank-ablate"
+            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-sq-gate-2026"
 
 task:
     model:
-        class: RankICLGBModel
+        class: LGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_gbdt
+        module_path: qlib.contrib.model.gbdt
         kwargs:
             loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
+            learning_rate: 0.05
-            num_leaves: 31
+            num_leaves: 15
-            n_estimators: 3000
+            n_estimators: 200
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
             colsample_bytree: 0.8
             subsample: 0.8
             subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_alpha: 0.01
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            reg_lambda: 0.01
-            seed: 42
 
     dataset:
         class: DatasetH
@@ -75,7 +52,7 @@ task:
                     start_time: 2015-01-03
                     end_time: 2026-08-10
                     fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    fit_end_time: 2026-01-03
                     freq: day
                     lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                     market: US
@@ -103,20 +80,24 @@ task:
           kwargs: {}
         - class: SigAnaRecord
           module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
+          kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 }
-              ana_long_short: true
-              ann_scaler: 252
         - class: PortAnaRecord
           module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
           kwargs:
               config:
                   strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      class: SignalQualityGateStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_quality_gate
                       kwargs:
                           signal: "<PRED>"
+                          lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                          gate_topk: 10
+                          gate_lookback: 5
+                          gate_threshold: 0.5
+                          gate_start: "2015-01-03"
+                          gate_end: "2026-08-19"
                           topk: 10
-                          n_drop: 2
+                          n_drop: 1
                           only_tradable: true
                           risk_degree: 0.95
                   backtest:

code/MANIFEST.txt

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 # TradeAC custom-qlib-code snapshot (auto-generated)
-# parent repo HEAD : e1781f606b8d0e1df4ce06fd272e97eb9435b975
+# parent repo HEAD : e952feed0a66a20439f4f24ad5524233429cd0c3
 #   tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib
 #   tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data
 # per-file hashes (git hash-object):
@@ -15,10 +15,17 @@
   74d0da348cbcc3700c96b6f4fe4391488e61efc5  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/__pycache__/rank_gbdt.cpython-312.pyc
   d3f051f3a8650c42fedc7b367b966f7c74fb5789  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/rank_ensemble.py
   d03e6611338918d4aac5eea4adf26f85a3763652  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/rank_gbdt.py
-  4afcf9058231111c412925f4c4b84e81d656db87  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__init__.py
+  2c2f167b693f4366a769998e3c9d4804f29e31e0  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__init__.py
-  c29e45e562256bf786c36f91a971b097467276e9  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
+  f9cd9ab729e3248542ccc490af7adc2e51c71914  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
+  cd3133cfbd2556b25c106e39ae97fb128df0e326  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/ic_gate.cpython-312.pyc
   6dd1c568a2961842793674390d5abffd1a0e71b8  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/optimal_stop.cpython-312.pyc
+  03b5e4d80da00800f1b108bee0735d3d18d856d1  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/regime_gate.cpython-312.pyc
+  a6a1c21ab71b62080830df45c4784b73c1531036  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/signal_quality_gate.cpython-312.pyc
+  755e3b139496a5e22b0328db45c8199c33029fbc  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/weekly_rebalance.cpython-312.pyc
+  519a1f4c05dbe0ac018ab8b779eb33d53b4dd545  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/ic_gate.py
   79aaad9e39fcc740a773f4f63c512ce1086cfde0  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/optimal_stop.py
+  7bcee5f0b09cfa721440f1354f16f2dd9a112b12  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/regime_gate.py
+  16ab80b731aab6d8bb818525615d77c2d1fcb0c8  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/signal_quality_gate.py
   fe60bacdfedd48617863be31f24b7c7daebfac5a  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/weekly_rebalance.py
   92e6e90eb0cd0a25142034560f27adb6b705b1a8  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__init__.py
   316bf4aa160cc8d15929ea648be03f4b4999667d  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc

code/tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__init__.py

@@ -1,3 +1,11 @@
+from .ic_gate import ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy  # noqa: F401
 from .optimal_stop import OptimalStopControl  # noqa: F401
+from .regime_gate import RegimeGateTopkDropoutStrategy  # noqa: F401
+from .weekly_rebalance import WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy  # noqa: F401
 
-__all__ = ["OptimalStopControl"]
+__all__ = [
+    "ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy",
+    "OptimalStopControl",
+    "RegimeGateTopkDropoutStrategy",
+    "WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy",
+]

code/tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/ic_gate.py

@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
+"""Realized-IC circuit breaker TopkDropout strategy.
+
+Subclass of ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy`` that
+holds the book (issues NO orders) while the streaming realized RankIC of the
+deployed signal is below threshold — i.e. the model's cross-sectional
+predictions are no longer earning against realized forward returns. When the
+gate is open it behaves exactly like the reference TopkDropoutStrategy.
+
+The gate is evaluated per trade step on the trailing mean realized RankIC of
+the signal over the last ``ic_window`` trading days whose label is fully
+realized as of the decision date (no lookahead — a 5d fwd label ``close[t+6]/
+close[t+1]-1`` is only known at ``t+6``).
+
+Two wiring modes:
+
+* ``ic_gate``: a precomputed ``pd.Series`` indexed by datetime of booleans
+  (True = gate open / trade allowed). Computed once by the caller (e.g.
+  ``rd_backtest``) and looked up per step. Missing dates default to open.
+* realized-IC self-computation: when ``ic_min_rankic`` is given but no
+  ``ic_gate``, the strategy computes the per-date realized RankIC itself from
+  ``self.signal`` (the pred scores) and the lake 1d bars via
+  ``tac_qlib.risk_limits.realized_rankic_series``, then applies the same
+  trailing-window comparison. Works when instantiated from a workflow YAML
+  PortAnaRecord config (``lake_root`` / ``market`` must be provided).
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import pandas as pd
+
+from qlib.backtest.decision import TradeDecisionWO
+from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
+
+from tac_qlib.risk_limits import ic_circuit_breaker, realized_rankic_series
+
+__all__ = ["ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy"]
+
+
+class ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
+    """TopkDropout with a streaming realized-IC circuit breaker.
+
+    Parameters
+    ----------
+    topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
+    forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
+    ic_min_rankic : float — pause new trading while trailing realized RankIC is
+        below this threshold (0 disables the gate).
+    ic_window : int — trailing window for the realized RankIC mean (default 22).
+    ic_label_horizon : int — label horizon in trading days (default 6).
+    ic_min_obs : int — min realized labels before the gate arms (default 10).
+    ic_gate : pd.Series, optional — precomputed per-date gate (bool indexed by
+        datetime). When provided, it overrides self-computation.
+    lake_root, market : str — lake location for self-computed realized IC.
+    """
+
+    def __init__(
+        self,
+        *,
+        topk,
+        n_drop,
+        ic_min_rankic: float = 0.0,
+        ic_window: int = 22,
+        ic_label_horizon: int = 6,
+        ic_min_obs: int = 10,
+        ic_gate=None,
+        lake_root: str = "",
+        market: str = "US",
+        **kwargs,
+    ):
+        super().__init__(topk=topk, n_drop=n_drop, **kwargs)
+        self.ic_min_rankic = float(ic_min_rankic or 0.0)
+        self.ic_window = int(ic_window or 22)
+        self.ic_label_horizon = int(ic_label_horizon or 6)
+        self.ic_min_obs = int(ic_min_obs or 10)
+        self._ic_gate = ic_gate
+        self._realized_ic = None
+        self.lake_root = lake_root or ""
+        self.market = market or "US"
+
+    def _load_realized_ic(self):
+        if self._realized_ic is None:
+            pred_start_time, pred_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(
+                self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step(), shift=-self.ic_label_horizon
+            )
+            pred = self.signal.get_signal(start_time=pred_start_time, end_time=pred_end_time)
+            if isinstance(pred, pd.DataFrame):
+                pred = pred.iloc[:, 0]
+            self._realized_ic = realized_rankic_series(
+                pred, self.lake_root, self.market, label_horizon=self.ic_label_horizon
+            )
+        return self._realized_ic
+
+    def _gate_open(self, trade_start_time) -> bool:
+        ts = pd.Timestamp(trade_start_time)
+        if self._ic_gate is not None:
+            # precomputed gate series: look up the latest known decision date <= ts
+            known = self._ic_gate[self._ic_gate.index <= ts]
+            if len(known):
+                return bool(known.iloc[-1])
+            return True
+        if self.ic_min_rankic <= 0:
+            return True
+        realized = self._load_realized_ic()
+        limits = {
+            "ic_min_rankic": self.ic_min_rankic,
+            "ic_window": self.ic_window,
+            "ic_min_obs": self.ic_min_obs,
+        }
+        tripped, _reason, _trail = ic_circuit_breaker(realized, ts, limits)
+        return not tripped
+
+    def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
+        trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
+        trade_start_time, _ = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
+        if not self._gate_open(trade_start_time):
+            return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
+        return super().generate_trade_decision(execute_result)

code/tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/regime_gate.py

@@ -0,0 +1,215 @@
+"""Regime-gate TopkDropout strategy.
+
+Subclass of ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy`` that
+holds the book (issues NO orders) while a regime detector says the market is in
+an unfavorable state.  When the gate is open it behaves exactly like the
+reference TopkDropoutStrategy.
+
+Three detector types are supported (all causal — no lookahead):
+
+* ``dispersion``: cross-sectional standard deviation of 22-day rolling returns
+  across the universe.  Gate closes when CS dispersion < threshold (low
+  dispersion means the spread between winners and losers is too narrow for
+  TopkDropout to exploit).
+* ``vol``: cross-sectional mean of 22-day rolling realized volatility.  Gate
+  closes when avg vol is outside a band ``[vol_low, vol_high]`` (strategy
+  needs moderate vol — too calm or too turbulent both hurt).
+* ``hmm``: pre-computed HMM posterior for regime 1 (``sp_hmm_p_regime1``).
+  Gate closes when posterior < threshold (model is not confident the calm
+  regime is active).
+
+The gate is provided as a precomputed ``pd.Series`` of booleans indexed by
+datetime (True = trade allowed).  The companion ``compute_regime_gate``
+function builds this series from lake bars; call it once before backtesting
+and pass the result as the ``regime_gate`` parameter.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import pandas as pd
+
+from qlib.backtest.decision import TradeDecisionWO
+from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
+
+__all__ = ["RegimeGateTopkDropoutStrategy", "compute_regime_gate"]
+
+
+class RegimeGateTopkDropoutStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
+    """TopkDropout with a regime-gate circuit breaker.
+
+    Parameters
+    ----------
+    topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
+    forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
+    regime_gate : pd.Series — precomputed per-date gate (bool indexed by
+        datetime).  True = trade allowed, False = no orders.  Missing dates
+        default to open (trade allowed).
+    """
+
+    def __init__(self, *, regime_gate=None, **kwargs):
+        super().__init__(**kwargs)
+        self._regime_gate = regime_gate
+
+    def _gate_open(self, trade_start_time) -> bool:
+        if self._regime_gate is None:
+            return True
+        ts = pd.Timestamp(trade_start_time)
+        known = self._regime_gate[self._regime_gate.index <= ts]
+        if len(known):
+            return bool(known.iloc[-1])
+        return True  # default open if no history yet
+
+    def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
+        trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
+        trade_start_time, _ = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
+        if not self._gate_open(trade_start_time):
+            return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
+        return super().generate_trade_decision(execute_result)
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Precomputation helper
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+def compute_regime_gate(
+    detector: str,
+    threshold: float = 0.0,
+    *,
+    lake_root: str = "",
+    market: str = "US",
+    start: str = "2015-01-03",
+    end: str = "2026-08-19",
+    vol_low: float = 0.0,
+    vol_high: float = 999.0,
+    hmm_field: str = "sp_hmm_p_regime1",
+) -> pd.Series:
+    """Build a per-date regime gate series from lake bars.
+
+    Parameters
+    ----------
+    detector : str — ``"dispersion"``, ``"vol"``, or ``"hmm"``.
+    threshold : float — for ``dispersion``: min CS dispersion to allow trading.
+        For ``hmm``: min HMM posterior to allow trading.
+        Ignored for ``vol`` (uses ``vol_low``/``vol_high`` band instead).
+    lake_root, market : str — lake location.
+    start, end : str — date window.
+    vol_low, vol_high : float — annualized vol band for the ``vol`` detector.
+    hmm_field : str — HMM feature column name for the ``hmm`` detector.
+
+    Returns
+    -------
+    pd.Series — bool, indexed by datetime.  True = trade allowed.
+    """
+    from tac_qlib.data.config import LakeConfig, resolve_lake_root
+
+    cfg = LakeConfig(resolve_lake_root(lake_root or None), market)
+    symbols = _universe_symbols(cfg)
+    close_df, vol_df = _load_daily_bars(symbols, cfg, start, end)
+    if close_df.empty:
+        return pd.Series(dtype=bool)
+
+    if detector == "dispersion":
+        return _dispersion_gate(close_df, threshold)
+    elif detector == "vol":
+        return _vol_gate(close_df, vol_low, vol_high)
+    elif detector == "hmm":
+        return _hmm_gate(cfg, symbols, threshold, start, end, hmm_field)
+    else:
+        raise ValueError(f"Unknown detector: {detector!r}")
+
+
+def _universe_symbols(cfg) -> list:
+    """Read symbols from the lake symbols.parquet."""
+    import pathlib
+
+    sp = cfg.lake_root / "symbols.parquet"
+    if sp.exists():
+        df = pd.read_parquet(sp)
+        col = "symbol" if "symbol" in df.columns else df.columns[0]
+        return sorted(df[col].astype(str).str.upper().tolist())
+    return []
+
+
+def _load_daily_bars(symbols, cfg, start, end):
+    """Load daily close prices for all symbols into a wide DataFrame."""
+    closes = {}
+    vols = {}
+    for sym in symbols:
+        p = cfg.bar_path("1d", sym)
+        if not p.exists():
+            continue
+        try:
+            df = pd.read_parquet(p)
+        except Exception:
+            continue
+        if not len(df):
+            continue
+        tcol = df["t"] if "t" in df.columns else df["date"]
+        ts = pd.to_datetime(tcol)
+        df = df.assign(_t=ts).set_index("_t").sort_index()
+        df = df.loc[start:end]
+        if len(df) < 22:
+            continue
+        closes[sym] = df["c"]
+        if "v" in df.columns:
+            vols[sym] = df["v"]
+    close_df = pd.DataFrame(closes)
+    vol_df = pd.DataFrame(vols) if vols else None
+    return close_df, vol_df
+
+
+def _dispersion_gate(close_df, threshold):
+    """Cross-sectional dispersion of 22-day rolling returns."""
+    if close_df.empty or close_df.shape[1] < 2:
+        return pd.Series(dtype=bool)
+    ret = close_df.pct_change(22)
+    cs_disp = ret.std(axis=1)
+    gate = cs_disp >= threshold
+    gate.iloc[:22] = True  # warmup: allow trading
+    return gate
+
+
+def _vol_gate(close_df, vol_low, vol_high):
+    """Cross-sectional mean of 22-day rolling realized vol."""
+    if close_df.empty or close_df.shape[1] < 2:
+        return pd.Series(dtype=bool)
+    import numpy as np
+    log_ret = np.log(close_df / close_df.shift(1))
+    rv22 = log_ret.rolling(22).std() * (252 ** 0.5)
+    cs_mean_vol = rv22.mean(axis=1)
+    gate = (cs_mean_vol >= vol_low) & (cs_mean_vol <= vol_high)
+    gate.iloc[:22] = True  # warmup
+    return gate
+
+
+def _hmm_gate(cfg, symbols, threshold, start, end, hmm_field):
+    """HMM regime posterior gate from persisted SP features."""
+    feat_root = cfg.lake_root / "features"
+    all_posteriors = {}
+    for sym in symbols:
+        # check both ta and sp family paths
+        for family in ("sp", "ta"):
+            p = feat_root / f"market=US" / f"timeframe=1d" / f"family={family}" / f"symbol={sym}.parquet"
+            if not p.exists():
+                continue
+            try:
+                df = pd.read_parquet(p)
+            except Exception:
+                continue
+            if hmm_field not in df.columns:
+                continue
+            tcol = df["t"] if "t" in df.columns else df["date"]
+            ts = pd.to_datetime(tcol)
+            s = pd.Series(df[hmm_field].values, index=ts, name=sym)
+            s = s.loc[start:end].dropna()
+            if len(s) > 0:
+                all_posteriors[sym] = s
+                break
+    if not all_posteriors:
+        # no HMM features found — default open
+        idx = pd.date_range(start, end, freq="B")
+        return pd.Series(True, index=idx)
+    post_df = pd.DataFrame(all_posteriors)
+    cs_mean = post_df.mean(axis=1)
+    gate = cs_mean >= threshold
+    return gate

code/tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/signal_quality_gate.py

@@ -0,0 +1,301 @@
+"""Signal-quality gate TopkDropout strategy.
+
+Subclass of ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy`` that
+holds the book (issues NO orders) when the model's recent prediction accuracy
+is below a threshold.  When the gate is open it behaves exactly like the
+reference TopkDropoutStrategy.
+
+Unlike the regime gate (which asks "is the market calm?"), the signal-quality
+gate asks "are my predictions accurate?" — and works across ALL years.
+
+The gate is provided as a precomputed ``pd.Series`` of booleans indexed by
+datetime (True = trade allowed).  The companion ``compute_signal_quality_gate``
+function builds this series from a pred.pkl and lake bars; call it once before
+backtesting and pass the result as the ``signal_quality_gate`` parameter.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+from qlib.backtest.decision import TradeDecisionWO
+from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
+
+__all__ = ["SignalQualityGateStrategy", "compute_signal_quality_gate"]
+
+
+class SignalQualityGateStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
+    """TopkDropout with signal-quality gate overlay.
+
+    When ``lake_root`` is provided the gate is computed on-the-fly from the
+    signal (``<PRED>``) and close prices — no precomputed gate file needed.
+    This ensures the gate matches the model that is actually generating the
+    predictions (critical when the model is retrained each year).
+
+    Parameters
+    ----------
+    topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
+    forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
+    signal_quality_gate : pd.Series — precomputed per-date gate (bool).
+    signal_quality_gate_path : str — path to pickled gate Series.
+    lake_root : str — lake root for on-the-fly gate computation (preferred).
+    gate_topk, gate_lookback, gate_threshold : int/float — gate params.
+    gate_start, gate_end : str — date window for loading close prices.
+    """
+
+    def __init__(self, *, signal_quality_gate=None, signal_quality_gate_path=None,
+                 lake_root=None, gate_topk=10, gate_lookback=5, gate_threshold=0.5,
+                 gate_start="2015-01-03", gate_end="2026-08-19", **kwargs):
+        super().__init__(**kwargs)
+        self._sq_gate_computed = False
+        if signal_quality_gate is not None:
+            self._sq_gate = signal_quality_gate
+            self._sq_gate_computed = True
+        elif signal_quality_gate_path is not None:
+            import pickle
+            with open(signal_quality_gate_path, "rb") as f:
+                self._sq_gate = pickle.load(f)
+            self._sq_gate_computed = True
+        elif lake_root is not None:
+            self._sq_gate = None
+            self._lake_root = lake_root
+            self._gate_topk = gate_topk
+            self._gate_lookback = gate_lookback
+            self._gate_threshold = gate_threshold
+            self._gate_start = gate_start
+            self._gate_end = gate_end
+        else:
+            self._sq_gate = None
+
+    def _compute_gate_on_fly(self):
+        """Compute gate from the signal (pred.pkl) and lake close prices."""
+        import pickle
+        from pathlib import Path
+
+        signal_path = self._signal
+        if not Path(signal_path).exists():
+            return
+
+        with open(signal_path, "rb") as f:
+            pred = pickle.load(f)
+
+        # Handle MultiIndex DataFrame -> unstack to wide
+        if isinstance(pred, pd.DataFrame) and isinstance(pred.index, pd.MultiIndex):
+            pred = pred.iloc[:, 0]
+            pred.index = pd.MultiIndex.from_arrays([
+                pd.to_datetime(pred.index.get_level_values(0)).normalize(),
+                pred.index.get_level_values(1)
+            ])
+            pred = pred.unstack(level=1)
+        elif isinstance(pred, pd.DataFrame):
+            pred = pred.iloc[:, 0] if pred.shape[1] >= 1 else pred.squeeze()
+            pred.index = pd.to_datetime(pred.index).normalize()
+
+        # Load close prices from lake
+        close_df = _load_close_prices(self._lake_root, "US", self._gate_start, self._gate_end)
+        if close_df.empty:
+            return
+
+        ret_df = close_df.pct_change()
+        ret_df.index = pd.to_datetime(ret_df.index).normalize()
+
+        pred_dates = sorted(pred.index.unique())
+        if len(pred_dates) < 2:
+            self._sq_gate = pd.Series(True, index=pd.DatetimeIndex(pred_dates))
+            self._sq_gate_computed = True
+            return
+
+        hit_rates = {}
+        for i in range(1, len(pred_dates)):
+            day = pred_dates[i]
+            prev_day = pred_dates[i - 1]
+            try:
+                prev_scores = pred.loc[prev_day]
+            except KeyError:
+                continue
+            if isinstance(prev_scores, pd.DataFrame):
+                prev_scores = prev_scores.iloc[:, 0]
+            prev_scores = prev_scores.dropna().sort_values(ascending=False)
+            topk_syms = list(prev_scores.index[:self._gate_topk])
+
+            if day not in ret_df.index:
+                continue
+            today_ret = ret_df.loc[day]
+            topk_rets = today_ret.reindex(topk_syms).dropna()
+            if len(topk_rets) == 0:
+                continue
+
+            hit_rates[day] = (topk_rets > 0).sum() / len(topk_rets)
+
+        if not hit_rates:
+            self._sq_gate_computed = True
+            return
+
+        hr_series = pd.Series(hit_rates).sort_index()
+        rolling_hr = hr_series.rolling(self._gate_lookback, min_periods=1).mean()
+        gate = rolling_hr >= self._gate_threshold
+        gate.iloc[:self._gate_lookback] = True
+
+        self._sq_gate = gate
+        self._sq_gate_computed = True
+
+    def _gate_open(self, trade_start_time) -> bool:
+        if self._sq_gate is None:
+            return True
+        ts = pd.Timestamp(trade_start_time)
+        known = self._sq_gate[self._sq_gate.index <= ts]
+        if len(known):
+            return bool(known.iloc[-1])
+        return True  # default open if no history yet
+
+    def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
+        if not self._sq_gate_computed:
+            self._compute_gate_on_fly()
+        trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
+        trade_start_time, _ = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
+        if not self._gate_open(trade_start_time):
+            return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
+        return super().generate_trade_decision(execute_result)
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Precomputation helper
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+def compute_signal_quality_gate(
+    pred_path: str,
+    *,
+    lake_root: str = "",
+    market: str = "US",
+    topk: int = 10,
+    lookback: int = 5,
+    threshold: float = 0.5,
+    start: str = "2015-01-03",
+    end: str = "2026-08-19",
+) -> pd.Series:
+    """Build a per-date signal-quality gate series from a pred.pkl and lake bars.
+
+    For each day, checks whether the model's topk picks from the previous day
+    had positive returns.  Computes a rolling hit rate over ``lookback`` days
+    and opens the gate when hit rate >= ``threshold``.
+
+    Parameters
+    ----------
+    pred_path : str — path to pred.pkl (from rd_train / rd_predict).
+    lake_root, market : str — lake location (for loading close prices).
+    topk : int — number of top picks to track for hit rate.
+    lookback : int — rolling window for hit rate computation.
+    threshold : float — hit rate threshold to keep trading.
+    start, end : str — date window for loading prices.
+
+    Returns
+    -------
+    pd.Series — bool, indexed by datetime.  True = trade allowed.
+    """
+    from pathlib import Path
+    import pickle
+
+    # Load pred.pkl
+    with open(pred_path, "rb") as f:
+        pred = pickle.load(f)
+
+    # Handle MultiIndex DataFrame (datetime, instrument) -> unstack to wide
+    if isinstance(pred, pd.DataFrame) and isinstance(pred.index, pd.MultiIndex):
+        pred = pred.iloc[:, 0]  # take score column as Series
+        pred.index = pd.MultiIndex.from_arrays([
+            pd.to_datetime(pred.index.get_level_values(0)).normalize(),
+            pred.index.get_level_values(1)
+        ])
+        # Unstack to wide: dates x instruments
+        pred = pred.unstack(level=1)
+    elif isinstance(pred, pd.DataFrame):
+        pred = pred.iloc[:, 0] if pred.shape[1] >= 1 else pred.squeeze()
+        pred.index = pd.to_datetime(pred.index).normalize()
+
+    # Load close prices from lake
+    close_df = _load_close_prices(lake_root, market, start, end)
+    if close_df.empty:
+        return pd.Series(dtype=bool)
+
+    ret_df = close_df.pct_change()
+    ret_df.index = pd.to_datetime(ret_df.index).normalize()
+
+    # Get sorted unique prediction dates
+    pred_dates = sorted(pred.index.unique())
+    if len(pred_dates) < 2:
+        return pd.Series(True, index=pd.DatetimeIndex(pred_dates))
+
+    # Compute hit rates
+    hit_rates = {}
+    for i in range(1, len(pred_dates)):
+        day = pred_dates[i]
+        # Get yesterday's topk
+        prev_day = pred_dates[i - 1]
+        try:
+            prev_scores = pred.loc[prev_day]
+        except KeyError:
+            continue
+        if isinstance(prev_scores, pd.DataFrame):
+            prev_scores = prev_scores.iloc[:, 0]
+        prev_scores = prev_scores.dropna().sort_values(ascending=False)
+        topk_syms = list(prev_scores.index[:topk])
+
+        # Get today's returns
+        if day not in ret_df.index:
+            continue
+        today_ret = ret_df.loc[day]
+        topk_rets = today_ret.reindex(topk_syms).dropna()
+        if len(topk_rets) == 0:
+            continue
+
+        hit_rates[day] = (topk_rets > 0).sum() / len(topk_rets)
+
+    if not hit_rates:
+        return pd.Series(dtype=bool)
+
+    hr_series = pd.Series(hit_rates).sort_index()
+
+    # Rolling hit rate
+    rolling_hr = hr_series.rolling(lookback, min_periods=1).mean()
+
+    # Gate is open when rolling hit rate >= threshold
+    gate = rolling_hr >= threshold
+    gate.iloc[:lookback] = True  # warmup: allow trading
+
+    return gate
+
+
+def _load_close_prices(lake_root, market, start, end):
+    """Load daily close prices for all symbols into a wide DataFrame."""
+    from pathlib import Path
+
+    lake = Path(lake_root)
+    symbols_parquet = lake / "symbols.parquet"
+    if not symbols_parquet.exists():
+        return pd.DataFrame()
+
+    df = pd.read_parquet(symbols_parquet)
+    col = "symbol" if "symbol" in df.columns else df.columns[0]
+    symbols = sorted(df[col].astype(str).str.upper().tolist())
+
+    closes = {}
+    for sym in symbols:
+        p = lake / "market=US" / "timeframe=1d" / f"symbol={sym}.parquet"
+        if not p.exists():
+            continue
+        try:
+            bar = pd.read_parquet(p)
+        except Exception:
+            continue
+        if not len(bar):
+            continue
+        tcol = "t" if "t" in bar.columns else "date"
+        ts = pd.to_datetime(bar[tcol])
+        bar = bar.assign(_t=ts).set_index("_t").sort_index()
+        bar = bar.loc[start:end]
+        if len(bar) < 10:
+            continue
+        closes[sym] = bar["c"] if "c" in bar.columns else bar["close"]
+
+    return pd.DataFrame(closes)

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/A-weekly_2024.yaml

@@ -1,95 +0,0 @@
-# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2024
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-            parallel: 5
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: "2025-01-07"
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
-                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
-                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
-            segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
-                valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
-                test:  ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
-
-    record:
-        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
-        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
-                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: "2024-01-02"
-                      end_time: "2024-12-31"
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/A-weekly_2025.yaml

@@ -1,95 +0,0 @@
-# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2025
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-            parallel: 5
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: "2026-01-07"
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
-                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
-                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
-            segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
-                valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
-                test:  ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
-
-    record:
-        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
-        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
-                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: "2025-01-02"
-                      end_time: "2025-12-31"
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/A-weekly_2026.yaml

@@ -1,95 +0,0 @@
-# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2026
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-            parallel: 5
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: "2026-08-19"
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
-                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
-                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
-            segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
-                valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
-                test:  ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
-
-    record:
-        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
-        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
-                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: "2026-01-04"
-                      end_time: "2026-08-19"
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/B-moments_2024.yaml

@@ -1,95 +0,0 @@
-# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2024
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: "2025-01-07"
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
-                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
-                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
-            segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
-                valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
-                test:  ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
-
-    record:
-        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
-        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: "2024-01-02"
-                      end_time: "2024-12-31"
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/B-moments_2025.yaml

@@ -1,95 +0,0 @@
-# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2025
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: "2026-01-07"
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
-                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
-                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
-            segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
-                valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
-                test:  ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
-
-    record:
-        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
-        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: "2025-01-02"
-                      end_time: "2025-12-31"
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/B-moments_2026.yaml

@@ -1,95 +0,0 @@
-# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2026
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: "2026-08-19"
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
-                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
-                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
-            segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
-                valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
-                test:  ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
-
-    record:
-        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
-        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: "2026-01-04"
-                      end_time: "2026-08-19"
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/C-ndrop2_2024.yaml

@@ -1,95 +0,0 @@
-# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2024
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-            parallel: 5
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: "2025-01-07"
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
-                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
-                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
-            segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
-                valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
-                test:  ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
-
-    record:
-        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
-        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: "2024-01-02"
-                      end_time: "2024-12-31"
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/C-ndrop2_2025.yaml

@@ -1,95 +0,0 @@
-# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2025
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-            parallel: 5
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: "2026-01-07"
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
-                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
-                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
-            segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
-                valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
-                test:  ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
-
-    record:
-        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
-        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: "2025-01-02"
-                      end_time: "2025-12-31"
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/C-ndrop2_2026.yaml

@@ -1,95 +0,0 @@
-# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2026
-# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
-{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-            parallel: 5
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: "2026-08-19"
-                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
-                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
-                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
-            segments:
-                train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
-                valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
-                test:  ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
-
-    record:
-        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
-        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: "2026-01-04"
-                      end_time: "2026-08-19"
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/b_optstop_v2.yaml

@@ -1,149 +0,0 @@
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# EXP 14 - Strategy B (enhanced): reference model + OptimalStopControlV2.
-#
-# Model = RankICEnsembleLGBModel (5-seed RankIC-early-stopped LGB), identical to
-# Strategy A. Strategy = OptimalStopControlV2 (tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.
-# optimal_stop_v2) with the controls that address OptimalStopControl's documented
-# weaknesses:
-#   - turnover / cost control: rebalance_band=0.05 (skip small rebalances),
-#     cooldown_days=3 (no whipsaw re-entries), max_turnover=0.30 (cap daily
-#     traded notional, priority exits > opens > rebalances)
-#   - robust thresholds (no valid-window overfit): entry 0.85 / exit 0.70 /
-#     max_hold 10 / min_hold 2 / sl -0.08
-# Sizing = equal-weight control (risk_degree fraction of total value split
-# across targets) - the "proper allocation" that replaces cash-heuristic sizing.
-#
-# Run:
-#   rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/b_optstop_v2.yaml \
-#       experiment_name=tac-rd-optstop-v2
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
-
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-            markets: {}
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs:
-            uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
-            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-optstop-v2"
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                    start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: 2026-08-14
-                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
-                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - class: DropAllNaN
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ProcessInf
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: CSRankNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ZScoreNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: Fillna
-                          kwargs: {}
-            segments:
-                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
-                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
-                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
-
-    record:
-        - class: SignalRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs: {}
-        - class: SigAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              ana_long_short: true
-              ann_scaler: 252
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: OptimalStopControlV2
-                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.optimal_stop_v2
-                      kwargs:
-                          signal: "<PRED>"
-                          topk: 10
-                          entry_pct: 0.85
-                          exit_pct: 0.70
-                          max_hold_days: 10
-                          min_hold_days: 2
-                          sl: -0.08
-                          risk_degree: 0.95
-                          notional: 20000
-                          rebalance_band: 0.05
-                          cooldown_days: 3
-                          max_turnover: 0.30
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: 2026-01-04
-                      end_time: 2026-08-10
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d