finish experiment 52 (exp/52-walk-forward-re-validation-of-the-3-best)

code/MANIFEST.txt

@@ -1,31 +1,28 @@
 # TradeAC custom-qlib-code snapshot (auto-generated)
-# parent repo HEAD : 507846cee16eeee11daf33c4176e8aec79b985b2
+# parent repo HEAD : e1781f606b8d0e1df4ce06fd272e97eb9435b975
 #   tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib
 #   tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data
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code/tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__init__.py

@@ -1,13 +1,3 @@
-from .kelly_dropout import FractionalKellyDropoutStrategy  # noqa: F401
 from .optimal_stop import OptimalStopControl  # noqa: F401
-from .regime_gate import RegimeGateDropoutStrategy  # noqa: F401
-from .top_bottom import TopBottomDropoutStrategy  # noqa: F401
-from .weekly_rebalance import WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy  # noqa: F401
 
-__all__ = [
+__all__ = ["OptimalStopControl"]
-    "OptimalStopControl",
-    "FractionalKellyDropoutStrategy",
-    "WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy",
-    "TopBottomDropoutStrategy",
-    "RegimeGateDropoutStrategy",
-]

code/tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/kelly_dropout.py

@@ -1,201 +0,0 @@
-"""Fractional-Kelly dropout strategy for cross-sectional signals.
-
-Sizing rule variant of ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy``:
-the topk/n_drop SELECTION is identical to the reference, but the buy size is
-proportional to the score MAGNITUDE (edge) instead of equal-weight, capped at a
-fraction ``cap_frac`` of the equal-weight notional so a single name cannot
-over-concentrate the book.
-
-``cap_frac`` is the fraction of the equal-weight per-name notional that a top
-signal can deploy at most (e.g. 0.5 = at most half the equal-weight size).
-Names whose score is below the median of the buy set get a proportionally
-smaller slice; the residual stays in cash (that is the point of the rule:
-throw away less edge per name, deploy less capital when conviction is low).
-"""
-
-from __future__ import annotations
-
-from typing import List
-
-import numpy as np
-import pandas as pd
-
-from qlib.backtest import Order
-from qlib.backtest.decision import OrderDir, TradeDecisionWO
-from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
-
-__all__ = ["FractionalKellyDropoutStrategy"]
-
-DEFAULT_CAP_FRAC = 0.5
-
-
-class FractionalKellyDropoutStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
-    """TopkDropout selection with score-magnitude (fractional-Kelly) sizing.
-
-    Parameters
-    ----------
-    topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
-    forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
-    cap_frac : max buy notional as a fraction of the equal-weight notional.
-    """
-
-    def __init__(self, *, topk, n_drop, cap_frac: float = DEFAULT_CAP_FRAC, **kwargs):
-        super().__init__(topk=topk, n_drop=n_drop, **kwargs)
-        self.cap_frac = cap_frac
-
-    def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
-        import copy
-
-        trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
-        trade_start_time, trade_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
-        pred_start_time, pred_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step, shift=1)
-        pred_score = self.signal.get_signal(start_time=pred_start_time, end_time=pred_end_time)
-        if isinstance(pred_score, pd.DataFrame):
-            pred_score = pred_score.iloc[:, 0]
-        if pred_score is None:
-            return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
-
-        if self.only_tradable:
-
-            def get_first_n(li, n, reverse=False):
-                cur_n = 0
-                res = []
-                for si in reversed(li) if reverse else li:
-                    if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
-                        stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
-                    ):
-                        res.append(si)
-                        cur_n += 1
-                        if cur_n >= n:
-                            break
-                return res[::-1] if reverse else res
-
-            def get_last_n(li, n):
-                return get_first_n(li, n, reverse=True)
-
-            def filter_stock(li):
-                return [
-                    si
-                    for si in li
-                    if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
-                        stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
-                    )
-                ]
-
-        else:
-
-            def get_first_n(li, n):
-                return list(li)[:n]
-
-            def get_last_n(li, n):
-                return list(li)[-n:]
-
-            def filter_stock(li):
-                return li
-
-        current_temp: "object" = copy.deepcopy(self.trade_position)
-        sell_order_list: List[Order] = []
-        buy_order_list: List[Order] = []
-        cash = current_temp.get_cash()
-        current_stock_list = current_temp.get_stock_list()
-        last = pred_score.reindex(current_stock_list).sort_values(ascending=False).index
-
-        if self.method_buy == "top":
-            today = get_first_n(
-                pred_score[~pred_score.index.isin(last)].sort_values(ascending=False).index,
-                self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last),
-            )
-        elif self.method_buy == "random":
-            topk_candi = get_first_n(pred_score.sort_values(ascending=False).index, self.topk)
-            candi = list(filter(lambda x: x not in last, topk_candi))
-            n = self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last)
-            try:
-                today = np.random.choice(candi, n, replace=False)
-            except ValueError:
-                today = candi
-        else:
-            raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
-
-        comb = pred_score.reindex(last.union(pd.Index(today))).sort_values(ascending=False).index
-
-        if self.method_sell == "bottom":
-            sell = last[last.isin(get_last_n(comb, self.n_drop))]
-        elif self.method_sell == "random":
-            candi = filter_stock(last)
-            try:
-                sell = pd.Index(np.random.choice(candi, self.n_drop, replace=False) if len(last) else [])
-            except ValueError:
-                sell = candi
-        else:
-            raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
-
-        buy = today[: len(sell) + self.topk - len(last)]
-        for code in current_stock_list:
-            if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
-                stock_id=code,
-                start_time=trade_start_time,
-                end_time=trade_end_time,
-                direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.SELL,
-            ):
-                continue
-            if code in sell:
-                time_per_step = self.trade_calendar.get_freq()
-                if current_temp.get_stock_count(code, bar=time_per_step) < self.hold_thresh:
-                    continue
-                sell_amount = current_temp.get_stock_amount(code=code)
-                sell_order = Order(
-                    stock_id=code,
-                    amount=sell_amount,
-                    start_time=trade_start_time,
-                    end_time=trade_end_time,
-                    direction=Order.SELL,
-                )
-                if self.trade_exchange.check_order(sell_order):
-                    sell_order_list.append(sell_order)
-                    trade_val, trade_cost, trade_price = self.trade_exchange.deal_order(
-                        sell_order, position=current_temp
-                    )
-                    cash += trade_val - trade_cost
-
-        if len(buy) == 0:
-            return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list, self)
-
-        # ---- fractional-Kelly sizing --------------------------------------
-        # equal-weight notional (reference baseline)
-        eq_notional = cash * self.risk_degree / len(buy)
-        buy_scores = pred_score.reindex(buy).astype(float)
-        lo, hi = buy_scores.min(), buy_scores.max()
-        if hi == lo:
-            w = pd.Series(1.0, index=buy_scores.index)
-        else:
-            w = (buy_scores - lo) / (hi - lo)  # [0,1] edge magnitude
-            w = w.clip(lower=0.0)
-            w_max = w.max()
-            w = w / w_max if w_max > 0 else w  # max == 1.0
-        for code in buy:
-            if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
-                stock_id=code,
-                start_time=trade_start_time,
-                end_time=trade_end_time,
-                direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.BUY,
-            ):
-                continue
-            buy_price = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
-                stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time, direction=OrderDir.BUY
-            )
-            notional = eq_notional * min(self.cap_frac, float(w.get(code, 0.0)))
-            buy_amount = notional / buy_price
-            factor = self.trade_exchange.get_factor(
-                stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
-            )
-            buy_amount = self.trade_exchange.round_amount_by_trade_unit(buy_amount, factor)
-            buy_order = Order(
-                stock_id=code,
-                amount=buy_amount,
-                start_time=trade_start_time,
-                end_time=trade_end_time,
-                direction=Order.BUY,
-            )
-            buy_order_list.append(buy_order)
-
-        return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list + buy_order_list, self)

code/tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/regime_gate.py

@@ -1,231 +0,0 @@
-"""HMM-regime overlay TopkDropout strategy.
-
-Regime-gate overlay on ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy``:
-selection and sizing are identical to the reference, but a name is only BOUGHT
-(entry gate) when its per-symbol HMM regime posterior ``sp_hmm_p_regime1`` on
-the signal date is >= ``regime_threshold``; otherwise it is held in cash instead
-of being opened.
-
-The regime posterior is read from the lake feature provider on the fly via
-``qlib.data.D.features`` (field ``$sp_hmm_p_regime1``) for the signal window, so
-no regime column needs to enter the model's ``feature_fields`` — the gate is a
-pure overlay (book ch.01: regime flags regressed as model features, survived
-only as an overlay). The HMM itself was fit with ``fit_end=<train end>`` when
-the lake features were backfilled, so there is no lookahead.
-
-Names already held are NOT force-sold when the regime turns unfavourable
-(entry gate only, matching the queue-10 design).
-"""
-
-from __future__ import annotations
-
-from typing import List
-
-import numpy as np
-import pandas as pd
-
-from qlib.backtest import Order
-from qlib.backtest.decision import OrderDir, TradeDecisionWO
-from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
-
-try:
-    from qlib.data import D
-except ImportError:  # pragma: no cover - qlib always present in this stack
-    D = None
-
-__all__ = ["RegimeGateDropoutStrategy"]
-
-DEFAULT_REGIME_THRESHOLD = 0.5
-REGIME_FIELD = "$sp_hmm_p_regime1"
-
-
-class RegimeGateDropoutStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
-    """TopkDropout with an HMM-regime entry gate on buy candidates.
-
-    Parameters
-    ----------
-    topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
-    forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
-    regime_threshold : minimum ``sp_hmm_p_regime1`` posterior required to open a
-        new position (default 0.5).
-    """
-
-    def __init__(self, *, topk, n_drop, regime_threshold: float = DEFAULT_REGIME_THRESHOLD, **kwargs):
-        super().__init__(topk=topk, n_drop=n_drop, **kwargs)
-        self.regime_threshold = regime_threshold
-
-    def _regime_for(self, codes, pred_start, pred_end) -> pd.Series:
-        """Return {code: sp_hmm_p_regime1} for the signal window (last day)."""
-        if D is None:
-            return pd.Series(dtype=float)
-        try:
-            df = D.features(list(codes), [REGIME_FIELD], start_time=pred_start, end_time=pred_end, freq="day")
-        except Exception:  # noqa: BLE001 - a regime read failure should gate open, not crash
-            return pd.Series(dtype=float)
-        if df is None or len(df) == 0:
-            return pd.Series(dtype=float)
-        # df index is MultiIndex (datetime, instrument); take the last day's values
-        df = df.reset_index()
-        ts_col = "datetime" if "datetime" in df.columns else df.columns[0]
-        sym_col = "instrument" if "instrument" in df.columns else df.columns[1]
-        last_ts = df[ts_col].max()
-        last = df[df[ts_col] == last_ts]
-        out = {}
-        for _, row in last.iterrows():
-            sym = str(row[sym_col]).split("/")[-1].upper()
-            val = row.iloc[-1]
-            out[sym] = float(val) if val == val else np.nan
-        return pd.Series(out)
-
-    def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
-        import copy
-
-        trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
-        trade_start_time, trade_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
-        pred_start_time, pred_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step, shift=1)
-        pred_score = self.signal.get_signal(start_time=pred_start_time, end_time=pred_end_time)
-        if isinstance(pred_score, pd.DataFrame):
-            pred_score = pred_score.iloc[:, 0]
-        if pred_score is None:
-            return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
-
-        if self.only_tradable:
-
-            def get_first_n(li, n, reverse=False):
-                cur_n = 0
-                res = []
-                for si in reversed(li) if reverse else li:
-                    if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
-                        stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
-                    ):
-                        res.append(si)
-                        cur_n += 1
-                        if cur_n >= n:
-                            break
-                return res[::-1] if reverse else res
-
-            def get_last_n(li, n):
-                return get_first_n(li, n, reverse=True)
-
-            def filter_stock(li):
-                return [
-                    si
-                    for si in li
-                    if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
-                        stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
-                    )
-                ]
-
-        else:
-
-            def get_first_n(li, n):
-                return list(li)[:n]
-
-            def get_last_n(li, n):
-                return list(li)[-n:]
-
-            def filter_stock(li):
-                return li
-
-        current_temp: "object" = copy.deepcopy(self.trade_position)
-        sell_order_list: List[Order] = []
-        buy_order_list: List[Order] = []
-        cash = current_temp.get_cash()
-        current_stock_list = current_temp.get_stock_list()
-        last = pred_score.reindex(current_stock_list).sort_values(ascending=False).index
-
-        if self.method_buy == "top":
-            today = get_first_n(
-                pred_score[~pred_score.index.isin(last)].sort_values(ascending=False).index,
-                self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last),
-            )
-        elif self.method_buy == "random":
-            topk_candi = get_first_n(pred_score.sort_values(ascending=False).index, self.topk)
-            candi = list(filter(lambda x: x not in last, topk_candi))
-            n = self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last)
-            try:
-                today = np.random.choice(candi, n, replace=False)
-            except ValueError:
-                today = candi
-        else:
-            raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
-
-        comb = pred_score.reindex(last.union(pd.Index(today))).sort_values(ascending=False).index
-
-        if self.method_sell == "bottom":
-            sell = last[last.isin(get_last_n(comb, self.n_drop))]
-        elif self.method_sell == "random":
-            candi = filter_stock(last)
-            try:
-                sell = pd.Index(np.random.choice(candi, self.n_drop, replace=False) if len(last) else [])
-            except ValueError:
-                sell = candi
-        else:
-            raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
-
-        buy = today[: len(sell) + self.topk - len(last)]
-
-        # ---- regime gate -----------------------------------------------------
-        if buy:
-            regime = self._regime_for(buy, pred_start_time, pred_end_time)
-            gated = [c for c in buy if regime.get(c, np.nan) >= self.regime_threshold]
-        else:
-            gated = []
-
-        for code in current_stock_list:
-            if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
-                stock_id=code,
-                start_time=trade_start_time,
-                end_time=trade_end_time,
-                direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.SELL,
-            ):
-                continue
-            if code in sell:
-                time_per_step = self.trade_calendar.get_freq()
-                if current_temp.get_stock_count(code, bar=time_per_step) < self.hold_thresh:
-                    continue
-                sell_amount = current_temp.get_stock_amount(code=code)
-                sell_order = Order(
-                    stock_id=code,
-                    amount=sell_amount,
-                    start_time=trade_start_time,
-                    end_time=trade_end_time,
-                    direction=Order.SELL,
-                )
-                if self.trade_exchange.check_order(sell_order):
-                    sell_order_list.append(sell_order)
-                    trade_val, trade_cost, trade_price = self.trade_exchange.deal_order(
-                        sell_order, position=current_temp
-                    )
-                    cash += trade_val - trade_cost
-
-        if len(gated) == 0:
-            return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list, self)
-
-        value = cash * self.risk_degree / len(gated)
-        for code in gated:
-            if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
-                stock_id=code,
-                start_time=trade_start_time,
-                end_time=trade_end_time,
-                direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.BUY,
-            ):
-                continue
-            buy_price = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
-                stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time, direction=OrderDir.BUY
-            )
-            buy_amount = value / buy_price
-            factor = self.trade_exchange.get_factor(
-                stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
-            )
-            buy_amount = self.trade_exchange.round_amount_by_trade_unit(buy_amount, factor)
-            buy_order = Order(
-                stock_id=code,
-                amount=buy_amount,
-                start_time=trade_start_time,
-                end_time=trade_end_time,
-                direction=Order.BUY,
-            )
-            buy_order_list.append(buy_order)
-
-        return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list + buy_order_list, self)

code/tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/top_bottom.py

@@ -1,169 +0,0 @@
-"""Market-neutral top/bottom long-short strategy for cross-sectional signals.
-
-Captures the cross-sectional long-short spread net of costs: buys the top-ranked
-``topk`` names and shorts the bottom-ranked ``topk`` names, equal-weight per
-side, sized to ``risk_degree`` of total value per side. Rebalances daily to the
-current rank (dropout-free: the book converges to the latest top/bottom sets).
-
-The long and short legs use equal notional per side (gross exposure ~2x
-``risk_degree`` of NAV, i.e. approximately market neutral before transaction
-costs). Benchmark neutrality (SPY beta ~ 0) is the secondary sanity metric.
-"""
-
-from __future__ import annotations
-
-from typing import List
-
-import copy
-
-import pandas as pd
-
-from qlib.backtest import Order
-from qlib.backtest.decision import OrderDir, TradeDecisionWO
-from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import BaseSignalStrategy
-
-__all__ = ["TopBottomDropoutStrategy"]
-
-DEFAULT_SHORT_LEG = True
-DEFAULT_REBALANCE_DAILY = True
-
-
-class TopBottomDropoutStrategy(BaseSignalStrategy):
-    """Long top-k / short bottom-k equal-weight market-neutral book.
-
-    Parameters
-    ----------
-    topk : number of names on each side (long top-k and short bottom-k).
-    short_leg : whether to open the short side (if False, long-only topk).
-    rebalance_daily : if True rebalance to current rank every day; else keep
-        positions and only refresh on score changes (dropout-style).
-    risk_degree : fraction of total value deployed per side.
-    """
-
-    def __init__(
-        self,
-        *,
-        topk: int = 10,
-        short_leg: bool = DEFAULT_SHORT_LEG,
-        rebalance_daily: bool = DEFAULT_REBALANCE_DAILY,
-        **kwargs,
-    ):
-        super().__init__(**kwargs)
-        self.topk = topk
-        self.short_leg = short_leg
-        self.rebalance_daily = rebalance_daily
-        self._prev_longs = set()
-        self._prev_shorts = set()
-
-    def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
-        trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
-        trade_start_time, trade_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
-        pred_start_time, pred_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step, shift=1)
-        pred_score = self.signal.get_signal(start_time=pred_start_time, end_time=pred_end_time)
-        if isinstance(pred_score, pd.DataFrame):
-            pred_score = pred_score.iloc[:, 0]
-        if pred_score is None or len(pred_score) == 0:
-            return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
-
-        # rank all names; topk longs and topk shorts
-        ranked = pred_score.sort_values(ascending=False)
-        longs = list(ranked.index[: self.topk])
-        shorts = list(ranked.index[-self.topk :]) if self.short_leg else []
-
-        current_temp: "object" = copy.deepcopy(self.trade_position)
-        current_codes = set(current_temp.get_stock_list())
-        holdings = {c: current_temp for c in current_codes if abs(current_temp.get_stock_amount(c)) > 1e-6}
-
-        sell_orders: List[Order] = []
-        buy_orders: List[Order] = []
-
-        def _tradable(code, direction):
-            try:
-                return self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
-                    stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time, direction=direction
-                )
-            except TypeError:
-                return self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
-                    stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
-                )
-
-        # determine target set (long/short)
-        target_longs = set(longs)
-        target_shorts = set(shorts)
-
-        # close positions not in the target book
-        for code in list(holdings):
-            if code in target_longs or code in target_shorts:
-                continue
-            amt = abs(current_temp.get_stock_amount(code))
-            o = Order(
-                stock_id=code,
-                amount=amt,
-                start_time=trade_start_time,
-                end_time=trade_end_time,
-                direction=Order.SELL if code in target_longs else Order.SELL,
-            )
-            if self.trade_exchange.check_order(o):
-                sell_orders.append(o)
-                self.trade_exchange.deal_order(o, position=current_temp)
-
-        # equal-weight notional per side
-        total_value = current_temp.get_cash()
-        for code, pos in holdings.items():
-            if code in target_longs or code in target_shorts:
-                mark = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
-                    stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time, direction=Order.SELL
-                )
-                if mark is not None and mark == mark:
-                    total_value += abs(current_temp.get_stock_amount(code)) * mark
-
-        side_notional = total_value * self.risk_degree / max(1, self.topk)
-
-        for code in longs:
-            if code in holdings and abs(current_temp.get_stock_amount(code)) > 1e-6:
-                continue
-            px = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
-                stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time, direction=Order.BUY
-            )
-            if px is None or px != px or px <= 0:
-                continue
-            amount = side_notional / px
-            factor = self.trade_exchange.get_factor(
-                stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
-            )
-            amount = self.trade_exchange.round_amount_by_trade_unit(amount, factor)
-            o = Order(
-                stock_id=code,
-                amount=amount,
-                start_time=trade_start_time,
-                end_time=trade_end_time,
-                direction=Order.BUY,
-            )
-            if self.trade_exchange.check_order(o):
-                buy_orders.append(o)
-
-        if self.short_leg:
-            for code in shorts:
-                if code in holdings and abs(current_temp.get_stock_amount(code)) > 1e-6:
-                    continue
-                px = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
-                    stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time, direction=Order.SELL
-                )
-                if px is None or px != px or px <= 0:
-                    continue
-                amount = side_notional / px
-                factor = self.trade_exchange.get_factor(
-                    stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
-                )
-                amount = self.trade_exchange.round_amount_by_trade_unit(amount, factor)
-                o = Order(
-                    stock_id=code,
-                    amount=amount,
-                    start_time=trade_start_time,
-                    end_time=trade_end_time,
-                    direction=Order.SELL,
-                )
-                if self.trade_exchange.check_order(o):
-                    sell_orders.append(o)
-
-        return TradeDecisionWO(sell_orders + buy_orders, self)

evidence/q08-risklimit/RESULT.md

@@ -1,35 +0,0 @@
-# Q08 — Risk-limit A/B re-validation (trace 40)
-
-**Status:** DONE (verdict: REFUTED as an IR edge; safety-net value retained)
-
-## Input
-- Reference signal: exp-26 pred, run `21afc6afdb674a399b59dd76c97628ce` (mlflow exp 25)
-- Window: 2026-01-04 → 2026-08-10, Topk10 n_drop1, SPY benchmark, $1M, 5/15bp/$5
-- Tool: `rd_risk_calibrate` (A/B + sensitivity grid). Full JSON: `risk_calibration.json`
-
-## Candidate spec (round-3 live spec)
-`{"liquidity_floor_adv": 5000000, "size_cap_pct": 0.12, "concentration_cap_pct": 0.95, "drawdown_pause_pct": 0.10}`
-
-## Results (net, with cost)
-| Config | IR | Ann. return | Max DD |
-|---|---|---|---|
-| baseline (no limits) | 1.5804 | +27.50% | −6.91% |
-| **candidate (5M floor + caps)** | **1.5121** | +2.20% | **−0.65%** |
-| liquidity $10M | 1.5457 | +2.25% | −0.64% |
-
-## Findings
-- **Floor binds, not a no-op**: $5M liquidity floor dropped 8 symbols —
-  `DBA, DBC, ESPO, FDN, REM, TAN, UNG, XAR`.
-- **No IR edge from the gate**: candidate IR (1.512) is BELOW baseline (1.580).
-  The exp-18 direction (floor IR 0.81→0.98) does NOT reproduce on the clean-lake
-  reference signal.
-- **Drawdown cut is pure defunding**: size_cap 0.12 × concentration 0.95 fold
-  the effective risk_degree to ~0.0095 → ~$9.5k deployed of $1M (~100x less).
-  Sensitivity grid shows both caps are no-ops (conc 20–50% identical,
-  size_cap 5–20% identical); only the liquidity floor moves returns, marginally.
-- **Conclusion**: keep the live spec as a safety net; there is no risk-limit
-  gate IR edge to harvest when the signal is the bottleneck (exp-20 pattern).
-
-## Artifacts on this branch
-- `evidence/q08-risklimit/risk_calibration.json` — full calibration dump
-- `queue/designs/q08_risk_limit_ab.md` — the pre-registered design doc

evidence/q08-risklimit/risk_calibration.json

@@ -1,401 +0,0 @@
-{
-  "rows": [
-    {
-      "label": "baseline (no limits)",
-      "mean": 0.001155,
-      "std": 0.011279,
-      "annualized_return": 0.274989,
-      "information_ratio": 1.580427,
-      "max_drawdown": -0.069145
-    },
-    {
-      "label": "liquidity $10,000,000",
-      "mean": 9.4e-05,
-      "std": 0.000942,
-      "annualized_return": 0.022464,
-      "information_ratio": 1.545736,
-      "max_drawdown": -0.006389
-    },
-    {
-      "label": "conc 20%",
-      "mean": 0.000115,
-      "std": 0.001168,
-      "annualized_return": 0.027285,
-      "information_ratio": 1.513718,
-      "max_drawdown": -0.008104
-    },
-    {
-      "label": "conc 30%",
-      "mean": 0.000115,
-      "std": 0.001168,
-      "annualized_return": 0.027285,
-      "information_ratio": 1.513718,
-      "max_drawdown": -0.008104
-    },
-    {
-      "label": "conc 40%",
-      "mean": 0.000115,
-      "std": 0.001168,
-      "annualized_return": 0.027285,
-      "information_ratio": 1.513718,
-      "max_drawdown": -0.008104
-    },
-    {
-      "label": "conc 50%",
-      "mean": 0.000115,
-      "std": 0.001168,
-      "annualized_return": 0.027285,
-      "information_ratio": 1.513718,
-      "max_drawdown": -0.008104
-    },
-    {
-      "label": "candidate {\"liquidity_floor_adv\": 5000000.0, \"size_cap_pct\": 0.12, \"concentration_cap_pct\": 0.95, \"drawdown_pause_pct\": 0.1}",
-      "mean": 9.2e-05,
-      "std": 0.000943,
-      "annualized_return": 0.021991,
-      "information_ratio": 1.512051,
-      "max_drawdown": -0.00653
-    },
-    {
-      "label": "size_cap 5%",
-      "mean": 9.2e-05,
-      "std": 0.000943,
-      "annualized_return": 0.021991,
-      "information_ratio": 1.512051,
-      "max_drawdown": -0.00653
-    },
-    {
-      "label": "size_cap 10%",
-      "mean": 9.2e-05,
-      "std": 0.000943,
-      "annualized_return": 0.021991,
-      "information_ratio": 1.512051,
-      "max_drawdown": -0.00653
-    },
-    {
-      "label": "size_cap 15%",
-      "mean": 9.2e-05,
-      "std": 0.000943,
-      "annualized_return": 0.021991,
-      "information_ratio": 1.512051,
-      "max_drawdown": -0.00653
-    },
-    {
-      "label": "size_cap 20%",
-      "mean": 9.2e-05,
-      "std": 0.000943,
-      "annualized_return": 0.021991,
-      "information_ratio": 1.512051,
-      "max_drawdown": -0.00653
-    },
-    {
-      "label": "liquidity $5,000,000",
-      "mean": 9.2e-05,
-      "std": 0.000943,
-      "annualized_return": 0.021991,
-      "information_ratio": 1.512051,
-      "max_drawdown": -0.00653
-    },
-    {
-      "label": "liquidity $1,000,000",
-      "mean": 9.1e-05,
-      "std": 0.000929,
-      "annualized_return": 0.021625,
-      "information_ratio": 1.508748,
-      "max_drawdown": -0.006376
-    },
-    {
-      "label": "liquidity $2,500,000",
-      "mean": 7.1e-05,
-      "std": 0.000918,
-      "annualized_return": 0.017,
-      "information_ratio": 1.199721,
-      "max_drawdown": -0.007158
-    }
-  ],
-  "runs": {
-    "baseline": {
-      "risk": {
-        "mean": 0.0011554172081987572,
-        "std": 0.01127853762493476,
-        "annualized_return": 0.27498929555130425,
-        "information_ratio": 1.5804272791471323,
-        "max_drawdown": -0.06914515336341577
-      },
-      "applied": {}
-    },
-    "candidate": {
-      "risk": {
-        "mean": 9.239707947451976e-05,
-        "std": 0.0009427144352738658,
-        "annualized_return": 0.0219905049149357,
-        "information_ratio": 1.5120514373488407,
-        "max_drawdown": -0.006530482262119444
-      },
-      "applied": {
-        "dropped_liquidity": [
-          "DBA",
-          "DBC",
-          "ESPO",
-          "FDN",
-          "REM",
-          "TAN",
-          "UNG",
-          "XAR"
-        ]
-      }
-    },
-    "size_cap 5%": {
-      "risk": {
-        "mean": 9.239707947451976e-05,
-        "std": 0.0009427144352738658,
-        "annualized_return": 0.0219905049149357,
-        "information_ratio": 1.5120514373488407,
-        "max_drawdown": -0.006530482262119444
-      },
-      "applied": {
-        "dropped_liquidity": [
-          "DBA",
-          "DBC",
-          "ESPO",
-          "FDN",
-          "REM",
-          "TAN",
-          "UNG",
-          "XAR"
-        ]
-      }
-    },
-    "size_cap 10%": {
-      "risk": {
-        "mean": 9.239707947451976e-05,
-        "std": 0.0009427144352738658,
-        "annualized_return": 0.0219905049149357,
-        "information_ratio": 1.5120514373488407,
-        "max_drawdown": -0.006530482262119444
-      },
-      "applied": {
-        "dropped_liquidity": [
-          "DBA",
-          "DBC",
-          "ESPO",
-          "FDN",
-          "REM",
-          "TAN",
-          "UNG",
-          "XAR"
-        ]
-      }
-    },
-    "size_cap 15%": {
-      "risk": {
-        "mean": 9.239707947451976e-05,
-        "std": 0.0009427144352738658,
-        "annualized_return": 0.0219905049149357,
-        "information_ratio": 1.5120514373488407,
-        "max_drawdown": -0.006530482262119444
-      },
-      "applied": {
-        "dropped_liquidity": [
-          "DBA",
-          "DBC",
-          "ESPO",
-          "FDN",
-          "REM",
-          "TAN",
-          "UNG",
-          "XAR"
-        ]
-      }
-    },
-    "size_cap 20%": {
-      "risk": {
-        "mean": 9.239707947451976e-05,
-        "std": 0.0009427144352738658,
-        "annualized_return": 0.0219905049149357,
-        "information_ratio": 1.5120514373488407,
-        "max_drawdown": -0.006530482262119444
-      },
-      "applied": {
-        "dropped_liquidity": [
-          "DBA",
-          "DBC",
-          "ESPO",
-          "FDN",
-          "REM",
-          "TAN",
-          "UNG",
-          "XAR"
-        ]
-      }
-    },
-    "conc 20%": {
-      "risk": {
-        "mean": 0.00011464156491316718,
-        "std": 0.0011683839517000441,
-        "annualized_return": 0.027284692449333788,
-        "information_ratio": 1.5137180903503433,
-        "max_drawdown": -0.008103887185240407
-      },
-      "applied": {
-        "dropped_liquidity": [
-          "DBA",
-          "DBC",
-          "ESPO",
-          "FDN",
-          "REM",
-          "TAN",
-          "UNG",
-          "XAR"
-        ]
-      }
-    },
-    "conc 30%": {
-      "risk": {
-        "mean": 0.00011464156491316718,
-        "std": 0.0011683839517000441,
-        "annualized_return": 0.027284692449333788,
-        "information_ratio": 1.5137180903503433,
-        "max_drawdown": -0.008103887185240407
-      },
-      "applied": {
-        "dropped_liquidity": [
-          "DBA",
-          "DBC",
-          "ESPO",
-          "FDN",
-          "REM",
-          "TAN",
-          "UNG",
-          "XAR"
-        ]
-      }
-    },
-    "conc 40%": {
-      "risk": {
-        "mean": 0.00011464156491316718,
-        "std": 0.0011683839517000441,
-        "annualized_return": 0.027284692449333788,
-        "information_ratio": 1.5137180903503433,
-        "max_drawdown": -0.008103887185240407
-      },
-      "applied": {
-        "dropped_liquidity": [
-          "DBA",
-          "DBC",
-          "ESPO",
-          "FDN",
-          "REM",
-          "TAN",
-          "UNG",
-          "XAR"
-        ]
-      }
-    },
-    "conc 50%": {
-      "risk": {
-        "mean": 0.00011464156491316718,
-        "std": 0.0011683839517000441,
-        "annualized_return": 0.027284692449333788,
-        "information_ratio": 1.5137180903503433,
-        "max_drawdown": -0.008103887185240407
-      },
-      "applied": {
-        "dropped_liquidity": [
-          "DBA",
-          "DBC",
-          "ESPO",
-          "FDN",
-          "REM",
-          "TAN",
-          "UNG",
-          "XAR"
-        ]
-      }
-    },
-    "liquidity $1,000,000": {
-      "risk": {
-        "mean": 9.086210454881382e-05,
-        "std": 0.0009290831160004576,
-        "annualized_return": 0.021625180882617688,
-        "information_ratio": 1.508747982736451,
-        "max_drawdown": -0.006376134679664126
-      },
-      "applied": {
-        "dropped_liquidity": [
-          "ESPO"
-        ]
-      }
-    },
-    "liquidity $2,500,000": {
-      "risk": {
-        "mean": 7.142665167642606e-05,
-        "std": 0.0009184775632266332,
-        "annualized_return": 0.016999543098989402,
-        "information_ratio": 1.1997208834083914,
-        "max_drawdown": -0.0071582979845040825
-      },
-      "applied": {
-        "dropped_liquidity": [
-          "DBA",
-          "DBC",
-          "ESPO",
-          "REM",
-          "XAR"
-        ]
-      }
-    },
-    "liquidity $5,000,000": {
-      "risk": {
-        "mean": 9.239707947451976e-05,
-        "std": 0.0009427144352738658,
-        "annualized_return": 0.0219905049149357,
-        "information_ratio": 1.5120514373488407,
-        "max_drawdown": -0.006530482262119444
-      },
-      "applied": {
-        "dropped_liquidity": [
-          "DBA",
-          "DBC",
-          "ESPO",
-          "FDN",
-          "REM",
-          "TAN",
-          "UNG",
-          "XAR"
-        ]
-      }
-    },
-    "liquidity $10,000,000": {
-      "risk": {
-        "mean": 9.438545151345752e-05,
-        "std": 0.0009420158170657147,
-        "annualized_return": 0.02246373746020289,
-        "information_ratio": 1.5457360696934006,
-        "max_drawdown": -0.006388809561209335
-      },
-      "applied": {
-        "dropped_liquidity": [
-          "DBA",
-          "DBC",
-          "ESPO",
-          "FDN",
-          "ICLN",
-          "ITA",
-          "MDY",
-          "REM",
-          "SHY",
-          "TAN",
-          "UNG",
-          "XAR"
-        ]
-      }
-    }
-  },
-  "candidate": {
-    "liquidity_floor_adv": 5000000.0,
-    "size_cap_pct": 0.12,
-    "concentration_cap_pct": 0.95,
-    "drawdown_pause_pct": 0.1
-  }
-}

queue/designs/q08_risk_limit_ab.md

@@ -1,34 +0,0 @@
-# QUEUE-08 — Risk-limit A/B re-validation: $5M liquidity floor on the exp-26 reference
-
-**Status:** QUEUED · **Priority:** P1 · **Effort:** tool-only (no new code)
-
-## Hypothesis (prove)
-The $5M liquidity floor improves net IR and cuts drawdown on the **post-reset**
-reference signal (pre-reset exp 18, EVIDENCE#008: net IR 0.81→0.98, cumDD
-7.93%→5.44%), while size/concentration caps hurt by cutting deployed capital.
-Needs re-validation on the exp-26 lineage because exp 18 is pre-clean-lake and
-not comparable (EVIDENCE#009/010). Source: `book/CLAIMS.md` open question +
-`book/README.md` `TODO(evidence-needed: reconciliation of exp 18 risk-limit spec
-on the post-reset reference signal)`.
-
-## Change vs exp-26 reference (ONE variable)
-- Reference: the saved exp-26 prediction (run `21afc6af…`, mlflow exp 25).
-- A/B via `rd_risk_calibrate` (runs limit-vs-no-limit A/B + sensitivity grid
-  over size_cap_pct, concentration_cap_pct, liquidity_floor_adv) and/or
-  `rd_backtest` with `risk_limits` on the SAME saved `pred.pkl`:
-  - baseline: no limits (this must reproduce the exp-26 net +2.13% / IR 0.21);
-  - candidate: `{"liquidity_floor_adv": 5000000, "size_cap_pct": 0.12,
-    "concentration_cap_pct": 0.95, "drawdown_pause_pct": 0.10}` (round-3 spec).
-- Pick the spec (B2 calibration) that keeps live ≈ backtest.
-
-## Acceptance
-- Candidate spec: `net_IR > 0.21` AND `net_max_drawdown < 7.69%` vs no-limit on
-  the same pred. Size/concentration caps expected to REDUCE deployed capital
-  (record the direction as confirmation of exp 18).
-- If the floor is a no-op (gates don't bind at this signal) → report that gates
-  are no-ops when the signal is the bottleneck (exp 20 pattern) as a PROVEN
-  clean-lake result.
-
-## Execution prerequisites
-- None (uses saved pred + `rd_risk_calibrate`/`rd_backtest`). Trace the A/B as
-  an experiment; record the spec chosen for the next live round.

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/A-weekly_2024.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2024
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2025-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
+                valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
+                test:  ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2024-01-02"
+                      end_time: "2024-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/A-weekly_2025.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2025
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2026-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
+                valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
+                test:  ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2025-01-02"
+                      end_time: "2025-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/A-weekly_2026.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2026
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2026-08-19"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
+                valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
+                test:  ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2026-01-04"
+                      end_time: "2026-08-19"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/B-moments_2024.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2024
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2025-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
+                valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
+                test:  ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2024-01-02"
+                      end_time: "2024-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/B-moments_2025.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2025
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2026-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
+                valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
+                test:  ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2025-01-02"
+                      end_time: "2025-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/B-moments_2026.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2026
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2026-08-19"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
+                valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
+                test:  ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2026-01-04"
+                      end_time: "2026-08-19"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/C-ndrop2_2024.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2024
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2025-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
+                valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
+                test:  ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2024-01-02"
+                      end_time: "2024-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/C-ndrop2_2025.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2025
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2026-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
+                valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
+                test:  ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2025-01-02"
+                      end_time: "2025-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/C-ndrop2_2026.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2026
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2026-08-19"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
+                valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
+                test:  ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2026-01-04"
+                      end_time: "2026-08-19"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/a_topk_baseline.yaml

@@ -1,19 +1,15 @@
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# EXP 18 - Risk-limit control: reference model + TopkDropout baseline (A).
+# EXP 14 - Strategy A (baseline): reference model + TopkDropout.
 #
-# Signal/model identical to the reference (tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated,
+# Model = RankICEnsembleLGBModel (5-seed RankIC-early-stopped LGB), the class
-# run 0cea66d9...): RankICEnsembleLGBModel (parallel, 5 seeds) on the 50-ETF
+# wired by the tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated reference (run 0cea66d9...).
-# SP-5d panel, test 2026-01-04..2026-08-10. This workflow reproduces the
+# Strategy = TopkDropout topk=10 n_drop=2 risk_degree=0.95 (the reference's own
-# unconstrained TopkDropout baseline net-of-cost so the risk-limited variant
+# recorded backtest strategy), so this run reproduces the reference baseline on
-# (same pred, liquidity/size/concentration caps) can be compared 1:1.
+# the same 50-ETF SP-5d panel.
-#
-# The risk_limits spec itself is applied via rd_backtest / rd_strategy_targets
-# (tool-level param, not a YAML key); this run records the unconstrained
-# baseline that the limit A/B is measured against.
 #
 # Run:
-#   rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp18-risk-limit/a_baseline.yaml \
+#   rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/a_topk_baseline.yaml \
-#       experiment_name=tac-rd-risk-limit
+#       experiment_name=tac-rd-optstop-v2
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 {%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
 {%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
@@ -47,7 +43,7 @@ qlib_init:
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
         kwargs:
             uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
-            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-risk-limit"
+            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-optstop-v2"
 
 task:
     model:
@@ -68,7 +64,6 @@ task:
             reg_alpha: 0.1
             reg_lambda: 1.0
             seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-            parallel: 5
 
     dataset:
         class: DatasetH

workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/b_optstop_v2.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,149 @@
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# EXP 14 - Strategy B (enhanced): reference model + OptimalStopControlV2.
+#
+# Model = RankICEnsembleLGBModel (5-seed RankIC-early-stopped LGB), identical to
+# Strategy A. Strategy = OptimalStopControlV2 (tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.
+# optimal_stop_v2) with the controls that address OptimalStopControl's documented
+# weaknesses:
+#   - turnover / cost control: rebalance_band=0.05 (skip small rebalances),
+#     cooldown_days=3 (no whipsaw re-entries), max_turnover=0.30 (cap daily
+#     traded notional, priority exits > opens > rebalances)
+#   - robust thresholds (no valid-window overfit): entry 0.85 / exit 0.70 /
+#     max_hold 10 / min_hold 2 / sl -0.08
+# Sizing = equal-weight control (risk_degree fraction of total value split
+# across targets) - the "proper allocation" that replaces cash-heuristic sizing.
+#
+# Run:
+#   rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/b_optstop_v2.yaml \
+#       experiment_name=tac-rd-optstop-v2
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs:
+            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+            market: US
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs:
+            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+            market: US
+            markets: {}
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs:
+            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+            market: US
+
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs:
+            uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
+            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-optstop-v2"
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2026-08-14
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - class: DropAllNaN
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: ProcessInf
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: CSRankNorm
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: ZScoreNorm
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: Fillna
+                          kwargs: {}
+            segments:
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+
+    record:
+        - class: SignalRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs: {}
+        - class: SigAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              ana_long_short: true
+              ann_scaler: 252
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: OptimalStopControlV2
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.optimal_stop_v2
+                      kwargs:
+                          signal: "<PRED>"
+                          topk: 10
+                          entry_pct: 0.85
+                          exit_pct: 0.70
+                          max_hold_days: 10
+                          min_hold_days: 2
+                          sl: -0.08
+                          risk_degree: 0.95
+                          notional: 20000
+                          rebalance_band: 0.05
+                          cooldown_days: 3
+                          max_turnover: 0.30
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d