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Author SHA1 Message Date
zhaoli 08b450390d finish experiment 43 (exp/43-q11-standalone-5d-reversal-single-featur) 2026-08-20 00:47:17 +00:00
zhaoli b6e21c0865 add q11 reversal workflow 2026-08-20 00:44:11 +00:00
zhaoli 51bbc9c65b start experiment 43 (exp/43-q11-standalone-5d-reversal-single-featur) 2026-08-20 00:44:02 +00:00
zhaoli 66cf0a149f finish experiment 33 (exp/33-q01-m2-reproduction-add-spsharpe22-to-th) 2026-08-19 22:40:28 +00:00
zhaoli 6a1b05db2e add q01 m2 repro workflow 2026-08-19 22:30:10 +00:00
zhaoli c7fc73180c start experiment 33 (exp/33-q01-m2-reproduction-add-spsharpe22-to-th) 2026-08-19 22:05:08 +00:00
zhaoli 483a86e47f finish experiment 31 (exp/31-isolation-run-m3-does-adding-garch11-vol) 2026-08-18 21:41:40 +00:00
zhaoli e660b4f2dd finish experiment 30 (exp/30-isolation-run-m2-does-adding-risk-adjust) 2026-08-18 20:13:22 +00:00
zhaoli 4e1debccba M2 isolation: base + sp_sharpe_22 (trace 30) 2026-08-18 15:54:24 +00:00
zhaoli cb18467a6d start experiment 30 (exp/30-isolation-run-m2-does-adding-risk-adjust) 2026-08-18 15:52:33 +00:00
zhaoli 894ac260a6 finish experiment 26 (exp/26-test-whether-reducing-topkdropout-daily) 2026-08-18 14:05:47 +00:00
zhaoli c455000a1e exp26: compact stochastic, n_drop 1 (workflow only) 2026-08-18 12:10:29 +00:00
zhaoli 5c7b2265f4 start experiment 26 (exp/26-test-whether-reducing-topkdropout-daily) 2026-08-18 10:03:21 +00:00
zhaoli c724682f3a finish experiment 24 (exp/24-run-the-rankic-ensemble-in-mlflow-experi) 2026-08-18 09:00:11 +00:00
zhaoli 59e733d88d exp 24: add exact compact stochastic feature workflow 2026-08-18 08:03:37 +00:00
zhaoli 1fcadbfe86 start experiment 24 (exp/24-run-the-rankic-ensemble-in-mlflow-experi) 2026-08-18 08:02:27 +00:00
zhaoli a718424340 finish experiment 23 (exp/23-test-whether-the-5-day-rankic-ensemble-i) 2026-08-18 07:58:20 +00:00
zhaoli adf0bfa812 exp 23: add general stochastic feature ablation workflow 2026-08-18 07:21:33 +00:00
zhaoli b5054ccc25 start experiment 23 (exp/23-test-whether-the-5-day-rankic-ensemble-i) 2026-08-18 07:20:27 +00:00
zhaoli 3d845306fe finish experiment 22 (exp/22-re-run-experiment-16s-5-day-rankic-ensem) 2026-08-18 07:17:36 +00:00
zhaoli 1075525d6e exp 22: add validated TA SP ensemble workflow 2026-08-18 06:38:55 +00:00
zhaoli 63c1ea763e start experiment 22 (exp/22-re-run-experiment-16s-5-day-rankic-ensem) 2026-08-18 06:38:28 +00:00
zhaoli 2c2684b103 start experiment 16 (16-scheduled-algo-retrain-on-20260814-tacrd) 2026-08-15 05:14:48 +00:00
10 changed files with 613 additions and 167 deletions
+1 -1
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@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
# TradeAC custom-qlib-code snapshot (auto-generated)
# parent repo HEAD : cdfd3105aabf69c817cd9acee24072096124dcc2
# parent repo HEAD : b6e21c086500c8a9271d6fc9171fd9cc48b94af2
# tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib
# tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data
# per-file hashes (git hash-object):
@@ -1,18 +1,22 @@
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
# EXP 15 - Strategy A (baseline): parallel reference model + TopkDropout.
# QUEUE-01 — M2 reproduction: risk-adjusted 22d Sharpe drift (sp_sharpe_22).
#
# Model = RankICEnsembleLGBModel with PARALLEL=5 (thread-pool seed training,
# rank_ensemble.py) - the speedup means the 5-seed 3000-round ensemble trains in
# ~1/5th the wall time of the serial reference. Strategy = TopkDropout topk=10
# n_drop=2 risk_degree=0.95 (the reference's recorded strategy).
# Hypothesis (book ch.01/ch.07, EVIDENCE#018 -> exp 30): adding the
# risk-adjusted 22d Sharpe drift feature (sp_sharpe_22) to the compact
# stochastic reference IMPROVES net portfolio performance (exp 30: net +6.53%
# IR 0.62 vs reference +2.13% IR 0.21) while rank metrics dip (RankIC 0.0576 vs
# 0.0663). exp 30 is a SINGLE clean-lake run, unreproduced -> HYPOTHESIS.
#
# Run:
# rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp15-kelly-size/a_topk_baseline.yaml \
# experiment_name=tac-rd-kelly-size
# Change vs exp-26 reference (EVIDENCE#015, run 21afc6af...): ONE feature added,
# feature_fields = compact set + sp_sharpe_22. Everything else byte-identical.
#
# Acceptance: net_ann_return > +2.13% AND net_IR > 0.21 (else HYPOTHESIS -> REFUTED).
# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q01_m2_sharpe22_repro.yaml \
# experiment_name=tac-rd-q01-m2-sharpe22-repro
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
@@ -42,7 +46,7 @@ qlib_init:
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs:
uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-kelly-size"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q01-m2-sharpe22-repro"
task:
model:
@@ -75,14 +79,14 @@ task:
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-14
end_time: 2026-08-10
fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
infer_processors:
- class: DropAllNaN
kwargs: {}
@@ -118,7 +122,7 @@ task:
kwargs:
signal: "<PRED>"
topk: 10
n_drop: 2
n_drop: 1
only_tradable: true
risk_degree: 0.95
backtest:
@@ -133,4 +137,4 @@ task:
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
# QUEUE-ly
# Fractional-Kelly sizing (Q06): same selection, sizing ∝ score magnitude, capped at 0.5× equal-weight notional.
# Acceptance: net_IR > 0.21 AND net_ann > +2.13% with total_cost not higher than reference.
# QUEUE-11 standalone 5d-reversal signal net of costs (unisolated study).
# Single-feature model: feature_fields = raw OHLCV + sp_trend_slope_5 only.
# Acceptance: standalone reversal net_ann_return > 0 (clears 20bp round-trip).
@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_trend_slope_5" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ qlib_init:
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs:
uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q06-kelly"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q11-reversal"
task:
model:
@@ -120,15 +120,14 @@ task:
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: FractionalKellyDropoutStrategy
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.kelly_dropout
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs:
signal: "<PRED>"
topk: 10
n_drop: 1
only_tradable: true
risk_degree: 0.95
cap_frac: 0.5
backtest:
start_time: 2026-01-04
end_time: 2026-08-10
@@ -1,144 +0,0 @@
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
# EXP 15 - Strategy B: parallel reference model + KellyWeightStrategy.
#
# Model = RankICEnsembleLGBModel PARALLEL=5 (same as A). Strategy =
# KellyWeightStrategy (tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.kelly_weight): applies the
# Kelly criterion to position SIZING -
# f* = kelly_fraction * mu_i / var_i (Gaussian Kelly, mu_i > 0)
# with per-name mu/var estimated from the rolling signal history (no
# lookahead), floored/capped and normalized to the risk_degree leverage budget.
# This is the piece the reference's equal-weight TopkDropout never tunes: it
# weights names by edge/risk instead of equal-weight top-k.
#
# Run:
# rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp15-kelly-size/b_kelly_weight.yaml \
# experiment_name=tac-rd-kelly-size
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
markets: {}
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs:
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs:
uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
default_exp_name: "tac-rd-kelly-size"
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
parallel: 5
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-14
fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
infer_processors:
- class: DropAllNaN
kwargs: {}
- class: ProcessInf
kwargs: {}
- class: CSRankNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: ZScoreNorm
kwargs: {}
- class: Fillna
kwargs: {}
segments:
train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
record:
- class: SignalRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs: {}
- class: SigAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
ana_long_short: true
ann_scaler: 252
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: KellyWeightStrategy
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.kelly_weight
kwargs:
signal: "<PRED>"
topk: 10
lookback: 20
min_obs: 10
kelly_fraction: 0.5
max_weight: 0.15
min_weight: 0.0
risk_degree: 0.95
max_turnover: 0.30
backtest:
start_time: 2026-01-04
end_time: 2026-08-10
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
+97
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@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
# Re-run of experiment 16 with validated family=ta and family=sp lake features.
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sma_5,sma_20,ema_12,ema_26,rsi_14,macd,macd_signal,macd_hist,bb_upper,bb_middle,bb_lower,atr_14,adx_14,sp_ret,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_ou_zscore,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_down,sp_max_move,sp_max_up,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_rv_ac1,sp_rv_cv_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_1,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22,sp_dsv_ratio_1,sp_dsv_ratio_5,sp_dsv_ratio_22,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag_5,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead_5" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp16-db-ta-sp" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-10
fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: 2026-01-04
end_time: 2026-08-10
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
+97
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@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
# General stochastic-process feature ablation: no TA, HMM, or OU fields.
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_down,sp_max_move,sp_max_up,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_rv_ac1,sp_rv_cv_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_1,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22,sp_dsv_ratio_1,sp_dsv_ratio_5,sp_dsv_ratio_22,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag_5,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead_5" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp22-stochastic-general" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-10
fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: 2026-01-04
end_time: 2026-08-10
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
+97
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# Exact compact stochastic feature set requested for a new run in MLflow exp 25.
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp22-stochastic-general" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-10
fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: 2026-01-04
end_time: 2026-08-10
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
+98
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# Compact stochastic feature set with reduced turnover: n_drop=1 instead of 2.
# Same setup as exp24 (compact baseline) but replacing the TopkDropout n_drop 2 with 1.
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp22-stochastic-general" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-10
fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: 2026-01-04
end_time: 2026-08-10
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
+99
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@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
# M2 isolation run: base compact set + risk-adjusted drift sp_sharpe_22.
# Exact copy of exp26 (reference: expId=25 run=21afc6afdb674a399b59dd76c97628ce)
# except feature_fields. 5-seed ensemble.
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp30-m2-sharpe" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-10
fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: 2026-01-04
end_time: 2026-08-10
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d
+99
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@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
# M3 isolation run: base compact set + GARCH(1,1) vol-regime trio.
# Exact copy of exp26 (reference: expId=25 run=21afc6afdb674a399b59dd76c97628ce)
# except feature_fields. 5-seed ensemble.
{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_garch_cond_var,sp_garch_persistence,sp_garch_std_resid" %}
qlib_init:
provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
region: us
expression_cache: null
dataset_cache: null
calendar_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
instrument_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
feature_provider:
class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
exp_manager:
class: MLflowExpManager
module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp31-m3-garch" }
task:
model:
class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
kwargs:
loss: mse
learning_rate: 0.02
num_leaves: 31
n_estimators: 3000
num_boost_round: 3000
early_stopping_rounds: 200
min_data_in_leaf: 20
lambda_l2: 0.5
colsample_bytree: 0.8
subsample: 0.8
subsample_freq: 1
reg_alpha: 0.1
reg_lambda: 1.0
seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
dataset:
class: DatasetH
module_path: qlib.data.dataset
kwargs:
handler:
class: TACHandler
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
kwargs:
instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
start_time: 2015-01-03
end_time: 2026-08-10
fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
freq: day
lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
market: US
label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
infer_processors:
- { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
- { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
- { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
- { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
segments:
train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
record:
- { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
- { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
- class: PortAnaRecord
module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
kwargs:
config:
strategy:
class: TopkDropoutStrategy
module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
backtest:
start_time: 2026-01-04
end_time: 2026-08-10
account: 1000000
benchmark: SPY
exchange_kwargs:
codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
deal_price: $close
freq: day
open_cost: 0.0005
close_cost: 0.0015
min_cost: 5.0
risk_analysis_freq: 1d