finish experiment 55 (exp/55-adaptive-short-window-retrain-test-the-4)

code/MANIFEST.txt

@@ -1,27 +1,29 @@
 # TradeAC custom-qlib-code snapshot (auto-generated)
-# parent repo HEAD : 6a1b05db2ee70d7661d695f5fd0b77b19c70e18a
+# parent repo HEAD : 81ee9f1a6e70f68a4bc08f28d868bbc1c71a3810
 #   tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib
 #   tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data
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code/tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__init__.py

@@ -1,3 +1,5 @@
+from .ic_gate import ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy  # noqa: F401
 from .optimal_stop import OptimalStopControl  # noqa: F401
+from .weekly_rebalance import WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy  # noqa: F401
 
-__all__ = ["OptimalStopControl"]
+__all__ = ["ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy", "OptimalStopControl", "WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy"]

code/tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/ic_gate.py

@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
+"""Realized-IC circuit breaker TopkDropout strategy.
+
+Subclass of ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy`` that
+holds the book (issues NO orders) while the streaming realized RankIC of the
+deployed signal is below threshold — i.e. the model's cross-sectional
+predictions are no longer earning against realized forward returns. When the
+gate is open it behaves exactly like the reference TopkDropoutStrategy.
+
+The gate is evaluated per trade step on the trailing mean realized RankIC of
+the signal over the last ``ic_window`` trading days whose label is fully
+realized as of the decision date (no lookahead — a 5d fwd label ``close[t+6]/
+close[t+1]-1`` is only known at ``t+6``).
+
+Two wiring modes:
+
+* ``ic_gate``: a precomputed ``pd.Series`` indexed by datetime of booleans
+  (True = gate open / trade allowed). Computed once by the caller (e.g.
+  ``rd_backtest``) and looked up per step. Missing dates default to open.
+* realized-IC self-computation: when ``ic_min_rankic`` is given but no
+  ``ic_gate``, the strategy computes the per-date realized RankIC itself from
+  ``self.signal`` (the pred scores) and the lake 1d bars via
+  ``tac_qlib.risk_limits.realized_rankic_series``, then applies the same
+  trailing-window comparison. Works when instantiated from a workflow YAML
+  PortAnaRecord config (``lake_root`` / ``market`` must be provided).
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import pandas as pd
+
+from qlib.backtest.decision import TradeDecisionWO
+from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
+
+from tac_qlib.risk_limits import ic_circuit_breaker, realized_rankic_series
+
+__all__ = ["ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy"]
+
+
+class ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
+    """TopkDropout with a streaming realized-IC circuit breaker.
+
+    Parameters
+    ----------
+    topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
+    forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
+    ic_min_rankic : float — pause new trading while trailing realized RankIC is
+        below this threshold (0 disables the gate).
+    ic_window : int — trailing window for the realized RankIC mean (default 22).
+    ic_label_horizon : int — label horizon in trading days (default 6).
+    ic_min_obs : int — min realized labels before the gate arms (default 10).
+    ic_gate : pd.Series, optional — precomputed per-date gate (bool indexed by
+        datetime). When provided, it overrides self-computation.
+    lake_root, market : str — lake location for self-computed realized IC.
+    """
+
+    def __init__(
+        self,
+        *,
+        topk,
+        n_drop,
+        ic_min_rankic: float = 0.0,
+        ic_window: int = 22,
+        ic_label_horizon: int = 6,
+        ic_min_obs: int = 10,
+        ic_gate=None,
+        lake_root: str = "",
+        market: str = "US",
+        **kwargs,
+    ):
+        super().__init__(topk=topk, n_drop=n_drop, **kwargs)
+        self.ic_min_rankic = float(ic_min_rankic or 0.0)
+        self.ic_window = int(ic_window or 22)
+        self.ic_label_horizon = int(ic_label_horizon or 6)
+        self.ic_min_obs = int(ic_min_obs or 10)
+        self._ic_gate = ic_gate
+        self._realized_ic = None
+        self.lake_root = lake_root or ""
+        self.market = market or "US"
+
+    def _load_realized_ic(self):
+        if self._realized_ic is None:
+            pred_start_time, pred_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(
+                self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step(), shift=-self.ic_label_horizon
+            )
+            pred = self.signal.get_signal(start_time=pred_start_time, end_time=pred_end_time)
+            if isinstance(pred, pd.DataFrame):
+                pred = pred.iloc[:, 0]
+            self._realized_ic = realized_rankic_series(
+                pred, self.lake_root, self.market, label_horizon=self.ic_label_horizon
+            )
+        return self._realized_ic
+
+    def _gate_open(self, trade_start_time) -> bool:
+        ts = pd.Timestamp(trade_start_time)
+        if self._ic_gate is not None:
+            # precomputed gate series: look up the latest known decision date <= ts
+            known = self._ic_gate[self._ic_gate.index <= ts]
+            if len(known):
+                return bool(known.iloc[-1])
+            return True
+        if self.ic_min_rankic <= 0:
+            return True
+        realized = self._load_realized_ic()
+        limits = {
+            "ic_min_rankic": self.ic_min_rankic,
+            "ic_window": self.ic_window,
+            "ic_min_obs": self.ic_min_obs,
+        }
+        tripped, _reason, _trail = ic_circuit_breaker(realized, ts, limits)
+        return not tripped
+
+    def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
+        trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
+        trade_start_time, _ = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
+        if not self._gate_open(trade_start_time):
+            return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
+        return super().generate_trade_decision(execute_result)

code/tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/weekly_rebalance.py

@@ -0,0 +1,202 @@
+"""Weekly-rebalance TopkDropout strategy.
+
+Turnover-reduction variant of ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy``:
+the topk/n_drop selection and sizing are identical to the reference, but the
+target book is recomputed only on the first trading day of each ISO week; on the
+other days the strategy issues NO orders (holds the book untouched).
+
+The weekly cadence is derived from the qlib trade calendar: a rebalance happens
+when the current trade step's date belongs to a different ISO ``(year, week)``
+than the previous trade step. ``hold_band_pct`` (default 0) optionally skips
+tiny rebalances: when a name's existing position differs from the new target by
+less than this fraction, no order is generated for it.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from typing import List
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+from qlib.backtest import Order
+from qlib.backtest.decision import OrderDir, TradeDecisionWO
+from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
+
+__all__ = ["WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy"]
+
+DEFAULT_HOLD_BAND_PCT = 0.0
+
+
+class WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
+    """TopkDropout rebalanced once per ISO week; holds otherwise.
+
+    Parameters
+    ----------
+    topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
+    forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
+    hold_band_pct : skip order for a name whose deviation from target weight is
+        below this fraction of the target (no-trade buffer band).
+    """
+
+    def __init__(self, *, topk, n_drop, hold_band_pct: float = DEFAULT_HOLD_BAND_PCT, **kwargs):
+        super().__init__(topk=topk, n_drop=n_drop, **kwargs)
+        self.hold_band_pct = hold_band_pct
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _iso_week(ts) -> tuple:
+        return (ts.year, ts.week)
+
+    def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
+        import copy
+
+        trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
+        trade_start_time, trade_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
+
+        cur_week = self._iso_week(trade_start_time)
+        prev_week = getattr(self, "_last_week", None)
+        self._last_week = cur_week
+
+        if prev_week is not None and prev_week == cur_week:
+            # not the first trading day of this ISO week -> hold
+            return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
+
+        pred_start_time, pred_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step, shift=1)
+        pred_score = self.signal.get_signal(start_time=pred_start_time, end_time=pred_end_time)
+        if isinstance(pred_score, pd.DataFrame):
+            pred_score = pred_score.iloc[:, 0]
+        if pred_score is None:
+            return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
+
+        if self.only_tradable:
+
+            def get_first_n(li, n, reverse=False):
+                cur_n = 0
+                res = []
+                for si in reversed(li) if reverse else li:
+                    if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
+                        stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
+                    ):
+                        res.append(si)
+                        cur_n += 1
+                        if cur_n >= n:
+                            break
+                return res[::-1] if reverse else res
+
+            def get_last_n(li, n):
+                return get_first_n(li, n, reverse=True)
+
+            def filter_stock(li):
+                return [
+                    si
+                    for si in li
+                    if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
+                        stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
+                    )
+                ]
+
+        else:
+
+            def get_first_n(li, n):
+                return list(li)[:n]
+
+            def get_last_n(li, n):
+                return list(li)[-n:]
+
+            def filter_stock(li):
+                return li
+
+        current_temp: "object" = copy.deepcopy(self.trade_position)
+        sell_order_list: List[Order] = []
+        buy_order_list: List[Order] = []
+        cash = current_temp.get_cash()
+        current_stock_list = current_temp.get_stock_list()
+        last = pred_score.reindex(current_stock_list).sort_values(ascending=False).index
+
+        if self.method_buy == "top":
+            today = get_first_n(
+                pred_score[~pred_score.index.isin(last)].sort_values(ascending=False).index,
+                self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last),
+            )
+        elif self.method_buy == "random":
+            topk_candi = get_first_n(pred_score.sort_values(ascending=False).index, self.topk)
+            candi = list(filter(lambda x: x not in last, topk_candi))
+            n = self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last)
+            try:
+                today = np.random.choice(candi, n, replace=False)
+            except ValueError:
+                today = candi
+        else:
+            raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
+
+        comb = pred_score.reindex(last.union(pd.Index(today))).sort_values(ascending=False).index
+
+        if self.method_sell == "bottom":
+            sell = last[last.isin(get_last_n(comb, self.n_drop))]
+        elif self.method_sell == "random":
+            candi = filter_stock(last)
+            try:
+                sell = pd.Index(np.random.choice(candi, self.n_drop, replace=False) if len(last) else [])
+            except ValueError:
+                sell = candi
+        else:
+            raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
+
+        buy = today[: len(sell) + self.topk - len(last)]
+        for code in current_stock_list:
+            if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
+                stock_id=code,
+                start_time=trade_start_time,
+                end_time=trade_end_time,
+                direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.SELL,
+            ):
+                continue
+            if code in sell:
+                time_per_step = self.trade_calendar.get_freq()
+                if current_temp.get_stock_count(code, bar=time_per_step) < self.hold_thresh:
+                    continue
+                sell_amount = current_temp.get_stock_amount(code=code)
+                sell_order = Order(
+                    stock_id=code,
+                    amount=sell_amount,
+                    start_time=trade_start_time,
+                    end_time=trade_end_time,
+                    direction=Order.SELL,
+                )
+                if self.trade_exchange.check_order(sell_order):
+                    sell_order_list.append(sell_order)
+                    trade_val, trade_cost, trade_price = self.trade_exchange.deal_order(
+                        sell_order, position=current_temp
+                    )
+                    cash += trade_val - trade_cost
+
+        if len(buy) == 0:
+            return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list, self)
+
+        value = cash * self.risk_degree / len(buy)
+        for code in buy:
+            if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
+                stock_id=code,
+                start_time=trade_start_time,
+                end_time=trade_end_time,
+                direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.BUY,
+            ):
+                continue
+            buy_price = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
+                stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time, direction=OrderDir.BUY
+            )
+            buy_amount = value / buy_price
+            factor = self.trade_exchange.get_factor(
+                stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
+            )
+            buy_amount = self.trade_exchange.round_amount_by_trade_unit(buy_amount, factor)
+            buy_order = Order(
+                stock_id=code,
+                amount=buy_amount,
+                start_time=trade_start_time,
+                end_time=trade_end_time,
+                direction=Order.BUY,
+            )
+            buy_order_list.append(buy_order)
+
+        return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list + buy_order_list, self)

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/A-weekly_2024.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2024
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2025-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
+                valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
+                test:  ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2024-01-02"
+                      end_time: "2024-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/A-weekly_2025.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2025
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2026-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
+                valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
+                test:  ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2025-01-02"
+                      end_time: "2025-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/A-weekly_2026.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+# Walk-forward: A-weekly / test 2026
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2026-08-19"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
+                valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
+                test:  ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2026-01-04"
+                      end_time: "2026-08-19"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/B-moments_2024.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2024
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2025-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
+                valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
+                test:  ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2024-01-02"
+                      end_time: "2024-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/B-moments_2025.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2025
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2026-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
+                valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
+                test:  ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2025-01-02"
+                      end_time: "2025-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/B-moments_2026.yaml

@@ -1,9 +1,6 @@
-# Compact stochastic feature set with reduced turnover: n_drop=1 instead of 2.
+# Walk-forward: B-moments / test 2026
-# Same setup as exp24 (compact baseline) but replacing the TopkDropout n_drop 2 with 1.
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=default(auto).
-{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
-
 qlib_init:
     provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
     region: us
@@ -21,7 +18,7 @@ qlib_init:
     exp_manager:
         class: MLflowExpManager
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp22-stochastic-general" }
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
 
 task:
     model:
@@ -51,16 +48,16 @@ task:
                 class: TACHandler
                 module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
                 kwargs:
-                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    end_time: "2026-08-19"
-                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
                     freq: day
                     lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                     market: US
                     label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22"
                     infer_processors:
                         - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
                         - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
@@ -68,9 +65,9 @@ task:
                         - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
                         - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
             segments:
-                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
-                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
-                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+                test:  ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
 
     record:
         - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
@@ -84,12 +81,12 @@ task:
                       module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
                       kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
                   backtest:
-                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      start_time: "2026-01-04"
-                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      end_time: "2026-08-19"
                       account: 1000000
                       benchmark: SPY
                       exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
                           deal_price: $close
                           freq: day
                           open_cost: 0.0005

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/C-ndrop2_2024.yaml

@@ -1,8 +1,6 @@
-# General stochastic-process feature ablation: no TA, HMM, or OU fields.
+# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2024
-{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
-{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_down,sp_max_move,sp_max_up,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_rv_ac1,sp_rv_cv_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_1,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22,sp_dsv_ratio_1,sp_dsv_ratio_5,sp_dsv_ratio_22,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag_5,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead_5" %}
-
 qlib_init:
     provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
     region: us
@@ -20,7 +18,7 @@ qlib_init:
     exp_manager:
         class: MLflowExpManager
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp22-stochastic-general" }
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
 
 task:
     model:
@@ -41,7 +39,7 @@ task:
             reg_alpha: 0.1
             reg_lambda: 1.0
             seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-
+            parallel: 5
     dataset:
         class: DatasetH
         module_path: qlib.data.dataset
@@ -50,26 +48,26 @@ task:
                 class: TACHandler
                 module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
                 kwargs:
-                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    end_time: "2025-01-07"
-                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
                     freq: day
                     lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                     market: US
                     label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
                     infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
                         - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
                         - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
                         - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
             segments:
-                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
-                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
-                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+                test:  ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
 
     record:
         - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
@@ -83,12 +81,12 @@ task:
                       module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
                       kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
                   backtest:
-                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      start_time: "2024-01-02"
-                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      end_time: "2024-12-31"
                       account: 1000000
                       benchmark: SPY
                       exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
                           deal_price: $close
                           freq: day
                           open_cost: 0.0005

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/C-ndrop2_2025.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2025
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2026-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
+                valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
+                test:  ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2025-01-02"
+                      end_time: "2025-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-3x3-windows/C-ndrop2_2026.yaml

@@ -1,8 +1,6 @@
-# Exact compact stochastic feature set requested for a new run in MLflow exp 25.
+# Walk-forward: C-ndrop2 / test 2026
-{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+# 3x3 re-validation (trace exp 52). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=2, parallel=5.
-{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
-
 qlib_init:
     provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
     region: us
@@ -20,7 +18,7 @@ qlib_init:
     exp_manager:
         class: MLflowExpManager
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp22-stochastic-general" }
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-3x3-windows" }
 
 task:
     model:
@@ -41,7 +39,7 @@ task:
             reg_alpha: 0.1
             reg_lambda: 1.0
             seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-
+            parallel: 5
     dataset:
         class: DatasetH
         module_path: qlib.data.dataset
@@ -50,16 +48,16 @@ task:
                 class: TACHandler
                 module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
                 kwargs:
-                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    end_time: "2026-08-19"
-                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
                     freq: day
                     lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                     market: US
                     label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead"
                     infer_processors:
                         - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
                         - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
@@ -67,9 +65,9 @@ task:
                         - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
                         - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
             segments:
-                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
-                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
-                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+                test:  ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-19"]
 
     record:
         - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
@@ -83,12 +81,12 @@ task:
                       module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
                       kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
                   backtest:
-                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      start_time: "2026-01-04"
-                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      end_time: "2026-08-19"
                       account: 1000000
                       benchmark: SPY
                       exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
                           deal_price: $close
                           freq: day
                           open_cost: 0.0005

workflows/bt-m2-sharpe22-2021-2023/m2-sharpe22_2021.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# Walk-forward transfer test: m2-sharpe22 / test 2021 (trace exp 54)
+# Label-regime match to 2026 (psi 0.039). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-2021-2023" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2022-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2020-08-31"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2020-08-31"]
+                valid: ["2020-09-01", "2020-12-31"]
+                test:  ["2021-01-04", "2021-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2021-01-04"
+                      end_time: "2021-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-m2-sharpe22-2021-2023/m2-sharpe22_2023.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# Walk-forward transfer test: m2-sharpe22 / test 2023 (trace exp 54)
+# Best label-regime match to 2026 (psi 0.028). Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-2021-2023" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2024-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2022-08-31"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2022-08-31"]
+                valid: ["2022-09-01", "2022-12-30"]
+                test:  ["2023-01-03", "2023-12-29"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2023-01-03"
+                      end_time: "2023-12-29"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-m2-sharpe22-3w/m2-sharpe22_2024.yaml

@@ -1,10 +1,6 @@
-# M3 isolation run: base compact set + GARCH(1,1) vol-regime trio.
+# Walk-forward: m2-sharpe22 / test 2024 (trace exp 53, ref exp32 c7c12228 on cleaned lake)
-# Exact copy of exp26 (reference: expId=25 run=21afc6afdb674a399b59dd76c97628ce)
+# Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
-# except feature_fields. 5-seed ensemble.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_garch_cond_var,sp_garch_persistence,sp_garch_std_resid" %}
-
 qlib_init:
     provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
     region: us
@@ -22,7 +18,7 @@ qlib_init:
     exp_manager:
         class: MLflowExpManager
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp31-m3-garch" }
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-3windows" }
 
 task:
     model:
@@ -43,6 +39,7 @@ task:
             reg_alpha: 0.1
             reg_lambda: 1.0
             seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
 
     dataset:
         class: DatasetH
@@ -52,26 +49,26 @@ task:
                 class: TACHandler
                 module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
                 kwargs:
-                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    end_time: "2025-01-07"
-                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
                     freq: day
                     lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                     market: US
                     label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
                     infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
                         - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
                         - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
                         - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
             segments:
-                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2023-08-31"]
-                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
-                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+                test:  ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
 
     record:
         - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
@@ -85,12 +82,12 @@ task:
                       module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
                       kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
                   backtest:
-                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      start_time: "2024-01-02"
-                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      end_time: "2024-12-31"
                       account: 1000000
                       benchmark: SPY
                       exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
                           deal_price: $close
                           freq: day
                           open_cost: 0.0005

workflows/bt-m2-sharpe22-3w/m2-sharpe22_2025.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# Walk-forward: m2-sharpe22 / test 2025 (trace exp 53, ref exp32 c7c12228 on cleaned lake)
+# Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-3windows" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2026-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
+                    fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2024-08-30"]
+                valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
+                test:  ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2025-01-02"
+                      end_time: "2025-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-m2-sharpe22-3w/m2-sharpe22_2026.yaml

@@ -1,10 +1,6 @@
-# M2 isolation run: base compact set + risk-adjusted drift sp_sharpe_22.
+# Walk-forward: m2-sharpe22 / test 2026 (trace exp 53, ref exp32 c7c12228 on cleaned lake)
-# Exact copy of exp26 (reference: expId=25 run=21afc6afdb674a399b59dd76c97628ce)
+# Strategy TopkDropoutStrategy n_drop=1, parallel=5. Window matches reference exp32 exactly.
-# except feature_fields. 5-seed ensemble.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22" %}
-
 qlib_init:
     provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
     region: us
@@ -22,7 +18,7 @@ qlib_init:
     exp_manager:
         class: MLflowExpManager
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp30-m2-sharpe" }
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-3windows" }
 
 task:
     model:
@@ -43,6 +39,7 @@ task:
             reg_alpha: 0.1
             reg_lambda: 1.0
             seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
 
     dataset:
         class: DatasetH
@@ -52,16 +49,16 @@ task:
                 class: TACHandler
                 module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
                 kwargs:
-                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
-                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
-                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    end_time: "2026-08-10"
-                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_start_time: "2016-01-04"
-                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
                     freq: day
                     lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                     market: US
                     label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
                     infer_processors:
                         - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
                         - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
@@ -69,9 +66,9 @@ task:
                         - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
                         - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
             segments:
-                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                train: ["2016-01-04", "2025-09-01"]
-                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
-                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+                test:  ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-10"]
 
     record:
         - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
@@ -85,12 +82,12 @@ task:
                       module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
                       kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
                   backtest:
-                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      start_time: "2026-01-04"
-                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      end_time: "2026-08-10"
                       account: 1000000
                       benchmark: SPY
                       exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
                           deal_price: $close
                           freq: day
                           open_cost: 0.0005

workflows/bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive/m2-sharpe22_1y_2021.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2021 (trace exp 55) — 1y training window
+# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-1y" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2022-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2019-08-30"
+                    fit_end_time: "2020-08-31"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2019-08-30", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2019-08-30", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2019-08-30", "2020-08-31"]
+                valid: ["2020-09-01", "2020-12-31"]
+                test:  ["2021-01-04", "2021-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2021-01-04"
+                      end_time: "2021-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive/m2-sharpe22_1y_2023.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2023 (trace exp 55) — 1y training window
+# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-1y" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2024-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2021-08-31"
+                    fit_end_time: "2022-08-31"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2021-08-31", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2021-08-31", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2021-08-31", "2022-08-31"]
+                valid: ["2022-09-01", "2022-12-30"]
+                test:  ["2023-01-03", "2023-12-29"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2023-01-03"
+                      end_time: "2023-12-29"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive/m2-sharpe22_1y_2024.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2024 (trace exp 55) — 1y training window
+# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-1y" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2025-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2022-08-31"
+                    fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2022-08-31", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2022-08-31", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2022-08-31", "2023-08-31"]
+                valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
+                test:  ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2024-01-02"
+                      end_time: "2024-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive/m2-sharpe22_1y_2025.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2025 (trace exp 55) — 1y training window
+# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-1y" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2026-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2023-08-31"
+                    fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2023-08-31", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2023-08-31", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2023-08-31", "2024-08-30"]
+                valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
+                test:  ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2025-01-02"
+                      end_time: "2025-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive/m2-sharpe22_1y_2026.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2026 (trace exp 55) — 1y training window
+# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-1y" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2026-08-10"
+                    fit_start_time: "2024-09-03"
+                    fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2024-09-03", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2024-09-03", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2024-09-03", "2025-09-01"]
+                valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
+                test:  ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-10"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2026-01-04"
+                      end_time: "2026-08-10"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive/m2-sharpe22_2y_2021.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2021 (trace exp 55) — 2y training window
+# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-2y" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2022-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2018-08-31"
+                    fit_end_time: "2020-08-31"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2018-08-31", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2018-08-31", fit_end_time: "2020-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2018-08-31", "2020-08-31"]
+                valid: ["2020-09-01", "2020-12-31"]
+                test:  ["2021-01-04", "2021-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2021-01-04"
+                      end_time: "2021-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive/m2-sharpe22_2y_2023.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2023 (trace exp 55) — 2y training window
+# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-2y" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2024-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2020-08-31"
+                    fit_end_time: "2022-08-31"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2020-08-31", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2020-08-31", fit_end_time: "2022-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2020-08-31", "2022-08-31"]
+                valid: ["2022-09-01", "2022-12-30"]
+                test:  ["2023-01-03", "2023-12-29"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2023-01-03"
+                      end_time: "2023-12-29"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive/m2-sharpe22_2y_2024.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2024 (trace exp 55) — 2y training window
+# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-2y" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2025-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2021-08-31"
+                    fit_end_time: "2023-08-31"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2021-08-31", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2021-08-31", fit_end_time: "2023-08-31" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2021-08-31", "2023-08-31"]
+                valid: ["2023-09-01", "2023-12-29"]
+                test:  ["2024-01-02", "2024-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2024-01-02"
+                      end_time: "2024-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive/m2-sharpe22_2y_2025.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2025 (trace exp 55) — 2y training window
+# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-2y" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2026-01-07"
+                    fit_start_time: "2022-08-31"
+                    fit_end_time: "2024-08-30"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2022-08-31", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2022-08-31", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2022-08-31", "2024-08-30"]
+                valid: ["2024-09-03", "2024-12-31"]
+                test:  ["2025-01-02", "2025-12-31"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2025-01-02"
+                      end_time: "2025-12-31"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive/m2-sharpe22_2y_2026.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# Adaptive short-window retrain: m2-sharpe22 / test 2026 (trace exp 55) — 2y training window
+# Hypothesis: a short recent training window adapts to the target year's regime and transfers the edge.
+{% set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-bt-m2-sharpe22-adaptive-2y" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                    start_time: "2015-01-03"
+                    end_time: "2026-08-10"
+                    fit_start_time: "2023-09-01"
+                    fit_end_time: "2025-09-01"
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2023-09-01", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2023-09-01", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: ["2023-09-01", "2025-09-01"]
+                valid: ["2025-09-03", "2026-01-03"]
+                test:  ["2026-01-04", "2026-08-10"]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: "2026-01-04"
+                      end_time: "2026-08-10"
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/a_topk_baseline.yaml

@@ -1,22 +1,19 @@
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# QUEUE-01 — M2 reproduction: risk-adjusted 22d Sharpe drift (sp_sharpe_22).
+# EXP 14 - Strategy A (baseline): reference model + TopkDropout.
 #
-# Hypothesis (book ch.01/ch.07, EVIDENCE#018 -> exp 30): adding the
+# Model = RankICEnsembleLGBModel (5-seed RankIC-early-stopped LGB), the class
-# risk-adjusted 22d Sharpe drift feature (sp_sharpe_22) to the compact
+# wired by the tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated reference (run 0cea66d9...).
-# stochastic reference IMPROVES net portfolio performance (exp 30: net +6.53%
+# Strategy = TopkDropout topk=10 n_drop=2 risk_degree=0.95 (the reference's own
-# IR 0.62 vs reference +2.13% IR 0.21) while rank metrics dip (RankIC 0.0576 vs
+# recorded backtest strategy), so this run reproduces the reference baseline on
-# 0.0663). exp 30 is a SINGLE clean-lake run, unreproduced -> HYPOTHESIS.
+# the same 50-ETF SP-5d panel.
 #
-# Change vs exp-26 reference (EVIDENCE#015, run 21afc6af...): ONE feature added,
+# Run:
-# feature_fields = compact set + sp_sharpe_22. Everything else byte-identical.
+#   rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/a_topk_baseline.yaml \
-#
+#       experiment_name=tac-rd-optstop-v2
-# Acceptance: net_ann_return > +2.13% AND net_IR > 0.21 (else HYPOTHESIS -> REFUTED).
-# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q01_m2_sharpe22_repro.yaml \
-#        experiment_name=tac-rd-q01-m2-sharpe22-repro
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 {%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
 {%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22" %}
+{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
 
 qlib_init:
     provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
@@ -46,7 +43,7 @@ qlib_init:
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
         kwargs:
             uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
-            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q01-m2-sharpe22-repro"
+            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-optstop-v2"
 
 task:
     model:
@@ -67,7 +64,6 @@ task:
             reg_alpha: 0.1
             reg_lambda: 1.0
             seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-            parallel: 5
 
     dataset:
         class: DatasetH
@@ -79,14 +75,14 @@ task:
                 kwargs:
                     instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
                     start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    end_time: 2026-08-14
                     fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
                     fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
                     freq: day
                     lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                     market: US
                     label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
                     infer_processors:
                         - class: DropAllNaN
                           kwargs: {}
@@ -122,7 +118,7 @@ task:
                       kwargs:
                           signal: "<PRED>"
                           topk: 10
-                          n_drop: 1
+                          n_drop: 2
                           only_tradable: true
                           risk_degree: 0.95
                   backtest:
@@ -137,4 +133,4 @@ task:
                           open_cost: 0.0005
                           close_cost: 0.0015
                           min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/b_optstop_v2.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,149 @@
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# EXP 14 - Strategy B (enhanced): reference model + OptimalStopControlV2.
+#
+# Model = RankICEnsembleLGBModel (5-seed RankIC-early-stopped LGB), identical to
+# Strategy A. Strategy = OptimalStopControlV2 (tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.
+# optimal_stop_v2) with the controls that address OptimalStopControl's documented
+# weaknesses:
+#   - turnover / cost control: rebalance_band=0.05 (skip small rebalances),
+#     cooldown_days=3 (no whipsaw re-entries), max_turnover=0.30 (cap daily
+#     traded notional, priority exits > opens > rebalances)
+#   - robust thresholds (no valid-window overfit): entry 0.85 / exit 0.70 /
+#     max_hold 10 / min_hold 2 / sl -0.08
+# Sizing = equal-weight control (risk_degree fraction of total value split
+# across targets) - the "proper allocation" that replaces cash-heuristic sizing.
+#
+# Run:
+#   rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp14-optstop-v2/b_optstop_v2.yaml \
+#       experiment_name=tac-rd-optstop-v2
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs:
+            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+            market: US
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs:
+            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+            market: US
+            markets: {}
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs:
+            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+            market: US
+
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs:
+            uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
+            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-optstop-v2"
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2026-08-14
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - class: DropAllNaN
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: ProcessInf
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: CSRankNorm
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: ZScoreNorm
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: Fillna
+                          kwargs: {}
+            segments:
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+
+    record:
+        - class: SignalRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs: {}
+        - class: SigAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              ana_long_short: true
+              ann_scaler: 252
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: OptimalStopControlV2
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.optimal_stop_v2
+                      kwargs:
+                          signal: "<PRED>"
+                          topk: 10
+                          entry_pct: 0.85
+                          exit_pct: 0.70
+                          max_hold_days: 10
+                          min_hold_days: 2
+                          sl: -0.08
+                          risk_degree: 0.95
+                          notional: 20000
+                          rebalance_band: 0.05
+                          cooldown_days: 3
+                          max_turnover: 0.30
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/exp22/workflow.yaml

@@ -1,97 +0,0 @@
-# Re-run of experiment 16 with validated family=ta and family=sp lake features.
-{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
-{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sma_5,sma_20,ema_12,ema_26,rsi_14,macd,macd_signal,macd_hist,bb_upper,bb_middle,bb_lower,atr_14,adx_14,sp_ret,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_ou_zscore,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_down,sp_max_move,sp_max_up,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_rv_ac1,sp_rv_cv_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_1,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22,sp_dsv_ratio_1,sp_dsv_ratio_5,sp_dsv_ratio_22,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag_5,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead_5" %}
-
-qlib_init:
-    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
-    region: us
-    expression_cache: null
-    dataset_cache: null
-    calendar_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    instrument_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
-    feature_provider:
-        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
-    exp_manager:
-        class: MLflowExpManager
-        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp16-db-ta-sp" }
-
-task:
-    model:
-        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
-        kwargs:
-            loss: mse
-            learning_rate: 0.02
-            num_leaves: 31
-            n_estimators: 3000
-            num_boost_round: 3000
-            early_stopping_rounds: 200
-            min_data_in_leaf: 20
-            lambda_l2: 0.5
-            colsample_bytree: 0.8
-            subsample: 0.8
-            subsample_freq: 1
-            reg_alpha: 0.1
-            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
-
-    dataset:
-        class: DatasetH
-        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
-        kwargs:
-            handler:
-                class: TACHandler
-                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
-                kwargs:
-                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                    start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: 2026-08-10
-                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
-                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
-                    freq: day
-                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-                    market: US
-                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
-                    infer_processors:
-                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
-                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
-                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
-                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
-            segments:
-                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
-                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
-                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
-
-    record:
-        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
-        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
-        - class: PortAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              config:
-                  strategy:
-                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
-                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
-                  backtest:
-                      start_time: 2026-01-04
-                      end_time: 2026-08-10
-                      account: 1000000
-                      benchmark: SPY
-                      exchange_kwargs:
-                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
-                          deal_price: $close
-                          freq: day
-                          open_cost: 0.0005
-                          close_cost: 0.0015
-                          min_cost: 5.0
-              risk_analysis_freq: 1d