finish experiment 33 (exp/33-q01-m2-reproduction-add-spsharpe22-to-th)

code/MANIFEST.txt

@@ -1,27 +1,27 @@
 # TradeAC custom-qlib-code snapshot (auto-generated)
-# parent repo HEAD : f9d1fe66f6e4f8ace0d3d774e23f1c79def9bae0
+# parent repo HEAD : 6a1b05db2ee70d7661d695f5fd0b77b19c70e18a
 #   tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib
 #   tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data
 # per-file hashes (git hash-object):
   1b6298c4a5652f2e863cbdc385a1014a570fcd59  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/__init__.py
-  b8112569f9b2537c45b6535e1a505a207878d322  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
+  b419ee55ed455a1c45423d1c9025ca5cc0a98576  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
   c76a9f17f680e74eea766eff27f7624359749ed6  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/data/__init__.py
-  8d5333ebd2b44165c50cba639ca2d4ac3fc7cfec  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/data/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
-  18cb37c0354184c49fa2e598396d7df0634cce0f  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/data/__pycache__/handler.cpython-312.pyc
-  871ff1e163c29261f140c3f53d42a41e6504c779  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/data/handler.py
+  2f6c67620aa2f9e6aaaef3369361d9b3eac3d6ca  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/data/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
+  fdd5923a70a399e8680913593ff111641947898e  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/data/__pycache__/handler.cpython-312.pyc
+  0dd25ef161c6e0f15eafc84886e7e1381deb38c3  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/data/handler.py
   b151d139a0dcde87d74b21e7c4b729176ba5c39b  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/__init__.py
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-  9f9014ddd9bce37490061312d51e8e6fe540fec4  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/__pycache__/rank_gbdt.cpython-312.pyc
+  08dec87ccdf6bb5d2cf611ca3032a4280aaab8cf  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
+  6fb61946ea9a83dfb560de3717f5fbf482c4c00e  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/__pycache__/rank_ensemble.cpython-312.pyc
+  3e80f2e08b661ddd2f58ffe5a6196063fa41ae51  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/__pycache__/rank_gbdt.cpython-312.pyc
   d3f051f3a8650c42fedc7b367b966f7c74fb5789  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/rank_ensemble.py
-  ccfe7d554989aa7f3e5a2128ae663e51b2207149  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/rank_gbdt.py
+  d03e6611338918d4aac5eea4adf26f85a3763652  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/rank_gbdt.py
   4afcf9058231111c412925f4c4b84e81d656db87  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__init__.py
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-  afaf562aeaa12cebc8529cd916153252e7e3c38a  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/optimal_stop.cpython-312.pyc
+  6ad10c2ebe37c16417e67c7aeb731ad1fcb6da2f  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
+  8d684b3216b040071d9ee4fa920a0e0c7486d278  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/optimal_stop.cpython-312.pyc
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   92e6e90eb0cd0a25142034560f27adb6b705b1a8  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__init__.py
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-  9609782800944c45b78bb58eaa7b51ba1b7f8f43  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__pycache__/config.cpython-312.pyc
-  a85628d71d12cfe5b18b1c884c5d829c89594579  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__pycache__/providers.cpython-312.pyc
-  686d36f6d101c547491ca866aa143aa542e17518  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/config.py
-  d9f839be30026f337754a3f015425a8efdbe8e2a  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/providers.py
+  7c4e6c345fad1978efe8860c0d977d0c02d6f8d9  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
+  99e602392d51663cb06d5c425000b1ed1e5a916b  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__pycache__/config.cpython-312.pyc
+  020dcdcf288e4832c8cf2386351f78d5ceb4fe13  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__pycache__/providers.cpython-312.pyc
+  53c9007a928841fd3c3b08450f9a6520ce1ac091  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/config.py
+  8d0644f6f0d1efb94798ed444cc73e63b643459b  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/providers.py

code/tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/data/handler.py

@@ -64,9 +64,13 @@ def check_transform_proc(proc_l, fit_start_time, fit_end_time):
 
 
 def get_common_feature_fields(lake_root=None, market="US", timeframe="1d") -> List[str]:
-    """Discover ta-lib columns present in *every* features parquet file of the lake.
+    """Discover feature columns present in *every* feature file of the lake.
 
-    Returns sorted field names (without the ``$`` prefix). Empty if no features are persisted.
+    Walks the `family=ta|sp` partition layout (plus any legacy flat files).
+    TA and SP columns are disjoint by construction, so the common set is
+    computed per family (columns shared by all symbol files of that family),
+    then the per-family results are unioned. Returns sorted field names
+    (without the ``$`` prefix). Empty if no features are persisted.
     """
     cfg = LakeConfig(lake_root, market)
     feat_dir = cfg.features_dir(timeframe)
@@ -74,8 +78,9 @@ def get_common_feature_fields(lake_root=None, market="US", timeframe="1d") -> Li
         return []
     import pyarrow.parquet as pq
 
+    def _family_common(fam_dir: Path) -> set:
         common = None
-    for p in sorted(feat_dir.glob("symbol=*.parquet")):
+        for p in sorted(fam_dir.glob("symbol=*.parquet")):
             try:
                 cols = set(pq.read_schema(p).names) - set(NON_FEATURE_COLUMNS)
             except Exception:  # pragma: no cover - skip unreadable files
@@ -83,7 +88,20 @@ def get_common_feature_fields(lake_root=None, market="US", timeframe="1d") -> Li
             common = cols if common is None else (common & cols)
             if not common:
                 break
-    return sorted(common) if common else []
+        return common or set()
+
+    common: set = set()
+    # family tier: features/market=*/timeframe=*/family=*/symbol=*.parquet
+    for fam in ("ta", "sp"):
+        fam_dir = feat_dir / f"family={fam}"
+        if fam_dir.is_dir():
+            common |= _family_common(fam_dir)
+    # legacy flat: features/market=*/timeframe=*/symbol=*.parquet
+    if (feat_dir / "family=ta").exists() or (feat_dir / "family=sp").exists():
+        pass  # family layout already covered
+    else:
+        common |= _family_common(feat_dir)
+    return sorted(common)
 
 
 class DropAllNaN(processor_module.Processor):

code/tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/rank_gbdt.py

@@ -53,23 +53,61 @@ from qlib.workflow import R
 __all__ = ["RankICLGBModel", "rankic_feval"]
 
 
+def _group_averaged_rank(values: np.ndarray, gid: np.ndarray, offs: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
+    """Averaged (tie-corrected) rank of ``values`` within each group, vectorized.
+
+    ``gid`` maps each row to its group id; ``offs`` holds the cumulative row
+    offsets so that group ``i`` occupies rows ``[offs[i], offs[i+1])``. Returns
+    the same result as ``pandas.Series.rank(method='average')`` applied per
+    group, but in one pass (``np.lexsort`` is the only non-linear step).
+    """
+    n = len(values)
+    order = np.lexsort((values, gid))
+    ord_rank = np.empty(n, dtype=np.float64)
+    ord_rank[order] = np.arange(n, dtype=np.float64) - offs[gid[order]] + 1.0
+    sg = gid[order]
+    sv = values[order]
+    newblock = np.empty(n, dtype=bool)
+    newblock[0] = True
+    newblock[1:] = (sg[1:] != sg[:-1]) | (sv[1:] != sv[:-1])
+    blockid = np.cumsum(newblock) - 1
+    block_mean = np.bincount(blockid, weights=ord_rank[order]) / np.bincount(blockid)
+    out = np.empty(n)
+    out[order] = block_mean[blockid]
+    return out
+
+
 def _per_day_spearman(preds: np.ndarray, labels: np.ndarray, group: np.ndarray) -> float:
     """Mean per-day Spearman rank correlation of preds vs labels.
 
     ``group`` holds the number of rows of each trading day (query group), in
     order. Days with <3 valid rows or a constant pred/label are skipped.
+
+    Vectorized: per-day Spearman == Pearson of the per-day rank transforms,
+    and the Pearson moments (``sum``, ``sum`` of products/squares) aggregate
+    over each day with ``np.bincount``. Runs ~10x faster than the per-day
+    ``pd.Series.rank()`` loop that preceded it — this feval is invoked on the
+    train and valid panels every boosting round, per seed.
     """
     if group is None or len(group) == 0:
         return 0.0
     offs = np.concatenate([[0], np.cumsum(group.astype(int))])
-    vals = []
-    for i in range(len(group)):
-        s = slice(offs[i], offs[i + 1])
-        p, l = preds[s], labels[s]
-        if len(p) < 3 or np.std(p) == 0 or np.std(l) == 0:
-            continue
-        vals.append(np.corrcoef(pd.Series(p).rank(), pd.Series(l).rank())[0, 1])
-    return float(np.mean(vals)) if vals else 0.0
+    gid = np.repeat(np.arange(len(group)), group.astype(int))
+    rp = _group_averaged_rank(preds, gid, offs)
+    rl = _group_averaged_rank(labels, gid, offs)
+    n_g = group.astype(float)
+    s_p = np.bincount(gid, weights=rp)
+    s_l = np.bincount(gid, weights=rl)
+    s_pl = np.bincount(gid, weights=rp * rl)
+    s_pp = np.bincount(gid, weights=rp * rp)
+    s_ll = np.bincount(gid, weights=rl * rl)
+    cov = n_g * s_pl - s_p * s_l
+    var_p = n_g * s_pp - s_p ** 2
+    var_l = n_g * s_ll - s_l ** 2
+    denom = np.sqrt(var_p * var_l)
+    valid = (n_g >= 3) & (denom > 0)
+    corr = np.where(valid, cov / np.where(denom == 0, 1, denom), 0.0)
+    return float(corr[valid].mean()) if valid.any() else 0.0
 
 
 def rankic_feval(preds, dataset):

code/tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/config.py

@@ -6,10 +6,11 @@ The lake is a hive-partitioned parquet store (see ``tac-engine/skills/tradeac-la
     ├── market=US/
     │   └── timeframe=1d/
     │       └── symbol=AAPL.parquet        # OHLCV bars: t, date, o, h, l, c, v, n, vw
-    ├── features/                          # ta-lib indicators, wide format
+    ├── features/                          # indicators, wide format, family tier
     │   └── market=US/
     │       └── timeframe=1d/
-    │           └── symbol=AAPL.parquet    # t, sma_5, sma_20, rsi_14, ...
+    │           ├── family=ta/symbol=AAPL.parquet  # t, sma_5, sma_20, rsi_14, ...
+    │           └── family=sp/symbol=AAPL.parquet  # t, sp_ou_*, sp_hmm_*, ...
     ├── calendar.parquet                   # trading days per market
     ├── coverage.parquet                   # per (market,timeframe,symbol) loaded windows
     └── symbols.parquet                    # asset master
@@ -107,8 +108,34 @@ class LakeConfig:
         return self.lake_root / "features" / f"market={self.market}" / f"timeframe={timeframe}"
 
     def features_path(self, timeframe: str, symbol: str) -> Path:
+        # Legacy flat path (no family tier). Prefer `load_features` which
+        # resolves the family=ta|sp partition layout.
         return self.features_dir(timeframe) / f"symbol={str(symbol).upper()}.parquet"
 
+    def load_features(self, timeframe: str, symbol: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        """All feature columns for a symbol, merging the `family=ta` and
+        `family=sp` partitions by timestamp. Returns an empty frame when no
+        feature files exist (legacy flat layout falls back transparently)."""
+        sym = str(symbol).upper()
+        frames = []
+        for family in ("ta", "sp"):
+            p = self.features_dir(timeframe) / f"family={family}" / f"symbol={sym}.parquet"
+            if p.exists():
+                frames.append(pd.read_parquet(p))
+        if not frames:
+            flat = self.features_dir(timeframe) / f"symbol={sym}.parquet"
+            if flat.exists():
+                return pd.read_parquet(flat)
+            return pd.DataFrame()
+        if len(frames) == 1:
+            return frames[0]
+        merged = frames[0]
+        for extra in frames[1:]:
+            merged = merged.merge(extra, on="t", how="outer", suffixes=("", "_dup"))
+            for c in [c for c in merged.columns if c.endswith("_dup")]:
+                merged = merged.drop(columns=c)
+        return merged
+
     def calendar_path(self) -> Path:
         return self.lake_root / "calendar.parquet"
 

code/tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/providers.py

@@ -173,8 +173,7 @@ class LakeFeatureProvider(FeatureProvider):
     def _load_feature_df(self, instrument: str, timeframe: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
         key = (instrument, timeframe)
         if key not in self._feature_cache:
-            p = self.cfg.features_path(timeframe, instrument)
-            self._feature_cache[key] = pd.read_parquet(p) if p.exists() else pd.DataFrame()
+            self._feature_cache[key] = self.cfg.load_features(timeframe, instrument)
         return self._feature_cache[key]
 
     @staticmethod

queue/workflows/q01_m2_sharpe22_repro.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,140 @@
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# QUEUE-01 — M2 reproduction: risk-adjusted 22d Sharpe drift (sp_sharpe_22).
+#
+# Hypothesis (book ch.01/ch.07, EVIDENCE#018 -> exp 30): adding the
+# risk-adjusted 22d Sharpe drift feature (sp_sharpe_22) to the compact
+# stochastic reference IMPROVES net portfolio performance (exp 30: net +6.53%
+# IR 0.62 vs reference +2.13% IR 0.21) while rank metrics dip (RankIC 0.0576 vs
+# 0.0663). exp 30 is a SINGLE clean-lake run, unreproduced -> HYPOTHESIS.
+#
+# Change vs exp-26 reference (EVIDENCE#015, run 21afc6af...): ONE feature added,
+# feature_fields = compact set + sp_sharpe_22. Everything else byte-identical.
+#
+# Acceptance: net_ann_return > +2.13% AND net_IR > 0.21 (else HYPOTHESIS -> REFUTED).
+# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q01_m2_sharpe22_repro.yaml \
+#        experiment_name=tac-rd-q01-m2-sharpe22-repro
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22" %}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs:
+            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+            market: US
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs:
+            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+            market: US
+            markets: {}
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs:
+            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+            market: US
+
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs:
+            uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
+            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q01-m2-sharpe22-repro"
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+            parallel: 5
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - class: DropAllNaN
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: ProcessInf
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: CSRankNorm
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: ZScoreNorm
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: Fillna
+                          kwargs: {}
+            segments:
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+
+    record:
+        - class: SignalRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs: {}
+        - class: SigAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              ana_long_short: true
+              ann_scaler: 252
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs:
+                          signal: "<PRED>"
+                          topk: 10
+                          n_drop: 1
+                          only_tradable: true
+                          risk_degree: 0.95
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/README-moments.md

@@ -1,20 +0,0 @@
-# exp/10 sp5d-moment-features
-
-Variant C: generic-only 19 + 16 new moment/volatility families (skew, kurt,
-DSV+ratios, max_up/down, rv_ac1, rv_cv_22, sig lag-5). 35 sp_* fields, ou/hmm excluded.
-
-Run a3f7d1d40c3d4b839314fcf5b40f9b08 (tac-rd-moments / exp 12) — FINISHED.
-
-## Result: NEGATIVE (regression vs generic-only baseline)
-
-| Metric | generic-only 19 (run 7b1e797) | +moments 35 (run a3f7d1d) |
-|---|---|---|
-| Rank IC   | 0.0635 | 0.0466 |
-| Rank ICIR | 0.276  | 0.183  |
-| L-S Sharpe | 2.55  | 1.44  |
-| net excess (cost) | +3.1% IR 0.28 | -16.2% IR -1.57 |
-| MDD | -7.3% | -11.1% |
-
-Same failure mode as ou/hmm in exp 9: adding cross-sectional moment features
-to the 50-name panel degrades the rank signal. Generic-only 19 remains the
-best configuration. No further moment-family variants planned.

workflows/exp12_isolation_ensemble.yaml

@@ -1,22 +1,24 @@
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# VARIANT C (generic + moments): keeps the winning generic-only 19-field set
-# (jump,har,trend,hurst,signature) and adds the NEW generic moment families the
-# engine now exposes:
-#   - realized skewness / kurtosis      (sp_rskew_5, sp_rskew_22, sp_rkurt_5, sp_rkurt_22)
-#   - downside semi-variance + ratios   (sp_dsv_1/5/22, sp_dsv_ratio_1/5/22)
-#   - signed max moves                  (sp_max_up, sp_max_down)
-#   - RV autocorr / vol-of-vol          (sp_rv_ac1, sp_rv_cv_22)
-#   - longer-lag signature terms        (sp_sig_level2_*_5)
-# Drops the model-specific ou/hmm families (they scored high in importance but
-# hurt the rank dimension in the all-24 run). Same panel/model as baseline.
+# ISOLATION: multi-seed RankIC ensemble, ablate-B generic-only feature set.
+#
+# Isolates the ensemble effect on the SP-5d rank signal. Same panel, segments,
+# history (full backfilled 2016+) and feature set as the exp-9 ablate-B winner
+# (generic-only sp_* families: jump,har,trend,hurst,signature), but replaces the
+# single RankICLGBModel with a 5-seed RankICEnsembleLGBModel (42,7,2026,99,123)
+# that averages per-day predictions.
+#
+# Differs from exp-15 (tac-rd-rank-ensemble, mlflow exp 15) ONLY by dropping the
+# TA subset (rsi_14,roc_10,macd_hist,willr_14,atr_14) and the inter-asset xr_*
+# features, so any change vs exp-15 is attributable to the feature set alone,
+# and any change vs exp-9 is attributable to the ensemble + full history alone.
 #
 # Run:
-#   rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/ablate_generic_moments.yaml \
-#       experiment_name=tac-rd-moments
+#   rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp12_isolation_ensemble.yaml \
+#       experiment_name=tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated
 # -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 {%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
 {%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_max_up,sp_max_down,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_rv_ac1,sp_rv_cv_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag_5,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead_5,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_1,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22,sp_dsv_ratio_1,sp_dsv_ratio_5,sp_dsv_ratio_22" %}
+{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
 
 qlib_init:
     provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
@@ -45,13 +47,13 @@ qlib_init:
         class: MLflowExpManager
         module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
         kwargs:
-            uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
-            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-moments"
+            uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db"
+            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated"
 
 task:
     model:
-        class: RankICLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_gbdt
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
         kwargs:
             loss: mse
             learning_rate: 0.02
@@ -66,7 +68,7 @@ task:
             subsample_freq: 1
             reg_alpha: 0.1
             reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seed: 42
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
 
     dataset:
         class: DatasetH
@@ -78,8 +80,8 @@ task:
                 kwargs:
                     instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
                     start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: 2026-08-10
-                    fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2026-08-14
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
                     fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
                     freq: day
                     lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
@@ -98,7 +100,7 @@ task:
                         - class: Fillna
                           kwargs: {}
             segments:
-                train: [2015-01-03, 2025-09-01]
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
                 valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
                 test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
 

workflows/exp22/workflow.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
+# Re-run of experiment 16 with validated family=ta and family=sp lake features.
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sma_5,sma_20,ema_12,ema_26,rsi_14,macd,macd_signal,macd_hist,bb_upper,bb_middle,bb_lower,atr_14,adx_14,sp_ret,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_ou_zscore,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_down,sp_max_move,sp_max_up,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_rv_ac1,sp_rv_cv_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_1,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22,sp_dsv_ratio_1,sp_dsv_ratio_5,sp_dsv_ratio_22,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag_5,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead_5" %}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp16-db-ta-sp" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/exp23/workflow.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
+# General stochastic-process feature ablation: no TA, HMM, or OU fields.
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_down,sp_max_move,sp_max_up,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_rv_ac1,sp_rv_cv_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_1,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22,sp_dsv_ratio_1,sp_dsv_ratio_5,sp_dsv_ratio_22,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag_5,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead_5" %}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp22-stochastic-general" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/exp24/workflow.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
+# Exact compact stochastic feature set requested for a new run in MLflow exp 25.
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp22-stochastic-general" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 2, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/exp26/workflow.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
+# Compact stochastic feature set with reduced turnover: n_drop=1 instead of 2.
+# Same setup as exp24 (compact baseline) but replacing the TopkDropout n_drop 2 with 1.
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp22-stochastic-general" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/exp30/workflow.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+# M2 isolation run: base compact set + risk-adjusted drift sp_sharpe_22.
+# Exact copy of exp26 (reference: expId=25 run=21afc6afdb674a399b59dd76c97628ce)
+# except feature_fields. 5-seed ensemble.
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_sharpe_22" %}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp30-m2-sharpe" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d

workflows/exp31/workflow.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+# M3 isolation run: base compact set + GARCH(1,1) vol-regime trio.
+# Exact copy of exp26 (reference: expId=25 run=21afc6afdb674a399b59dd76c97628ce)
+# except feature_fields. 5-seed ensemble.
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_garch_cond_var,sp_garch_persistence,sp_garch_std_resid" %}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-exp31-m3-garch" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d