queue: pre-register Series 2 (Q12-Q20) targeting unproven book hypotheses

Series 1 (Q01-Q11, exp 33-43) executed and folded into book/CLAIMS.md. Series 2 covers the remaining HYPOTHESIS rows and open questions: Q12 22d label + weekly recompute (untested combo) Q13 weekly rebalance reproduction on a 2nd OOS window Q14 out-of-universe validation (single-stock panel, needs lake backfill) Q15 5-seed vs single-seed clean A/B Q16 hmm family as features Q17 realized-moments family as features Q18 OptimalStopControl clean re-test Q19/Q20 martingale-VR + effective-names scripted studies Each workflow pins one-variable change vs exp-26 reference and acceptance.
queue: pre-registered experiment backlog to prove better-trading-performance hypotheses
2026-08-20 03:51:58 +00:00 · 2026-08-19 15:30:46 +00:00 · 2026-08-19 15:06:31 +00:00 · 2026-08-19 14:42:10 +00:00
26 changed files with 745 additions and 211 deletions
@@ -1,22 +1,27 @@
 # TradeAC custom-qlib-code snapshot (auto-generated)
-# parent repo HEAD : HEAD
-unknown
-# parent repo date : unknown
-# copied paths:
+# parent repo HEAD : c2edfe6671f17a364a27ecf9619df25f194f43e6
 #   tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib
 #   tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data
 # per-file hashes (git hash-object):
  1b6298c4a5652f2e863cbdc385a1014a570fcd59  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/__init__.py
+  b419ee55ed455a1c45423d1c9025ca5cc0a98576  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
  c76a9f17f680e74eea766eff27f7624359749ed6  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/data/__init__.py
-  871ff1e163c29261f140c3f53d42a41e6504c779  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/data/handler.py
+  2f6c67620aa2f9e6aaaef3369361d9b3eac3d6ca  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/data/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
+  fdd5923a70a399e8680913593ff111641947898e  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/data/__pycache__/handler.cpython-312.pyc
+  0dd25ef161c6e0f15eafc84886e7e1381deb38c3  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/data/handler.py
  b151d139a0dcde87d74b21e7c4b729176ba5c39b  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/__init__.py
+  08dec87ccdf6bb5d2cf611ca3032a4280aaab8cf  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
+  6fb61946ea9a83dfb560de3717f5fbf482c4c00e  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/__pycache__/rank_ensemble.cpython-312.pyc
+  3e80f2e08b661ddd2f58ffe5a6196063fa41ae51  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/__pycache__/rank_gbdt.cpython-312.pyc
  d3f051f3a8650c42fedc7b367b966f7c74fb5789  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/rank_ensemble.py
-  ccfe7d554989aa7f3e5a2128ae663e51b2207149  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/rank_gbdt.py
+  d03e6611338918d4aac5eea4adf26f85a3763652  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/model/rank_gbdt.py
  4afcf9058231111c412925f4c4b84e81d656db87  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__init__.py
+  6ad10c2ebe37c16417e67c7aeb731ad1fcb6da2f  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
+  8d684b3216b040071d9ee4fa920a0e0c7486d278  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/__pycache__/optimal_stop.cpython-312.pyc
  79aaad9e39fcc740a773f4f63c512ce1086cfde0  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/optimal_stop.py
  92e6e90eb0cd0a25142034560f27adb6b705b1a8  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__init__.py
-  6d5b9cca6970261fed1f633f6b588ec3e2b399bb  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
-  ba4f5d1741728ad1e364e537c7b50488e9112b9f  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__pycache__/config.cpython-312.pyc
-  608c88f0f45378b170bddb5b301cb32fad9abb35  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__pycache__/providers.cpython-312.pyc
-  686d36f6d101c547491ca866aa143aa542e17518  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/config.py
-  d9f839be30026f337754a3f015425a8efdbe8e2a  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/providers.py
+  7c4e6c345fad1978efe8860c0d977d0c02d6f8d9  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__pycache__/__init__.cpython-312.pyc
+  99e602392d51663cb06d5c425000b1ed1e5a916b  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__pycache__/config.cpython-312.pyc
+  020dcdcf288e4832c8cf2386351f78d5ceb4fe13  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/__pycache__/providers.cpython-312.pyc
+  53c9007a928841fd3c3b08450f9a6520ce1ac091  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/config.py
+  8d0644f6f0d1efb94798ed444cc73e63b643459b  tac-qlib/tac_qlib/data/providers.py
@@ -64,9 +64,13 @@ def check_transform_proc(proc_l, fit_start_time, fit_end_time):


 def get_common_feature_fields(lake_root=None, market="US", timeframe="1d") -> List[str]:
-    """Discover ta-lib columns present in *every* features parquet file of the lake.
+    """Discover feature columns present in *every* feature file of the lake.

-    Returns sorted field names (without the ``$`` prefix). Empty if no features are persisted.
+    Walks the `family=ta|sp` partition layout (plus any legacy flat files).
+    TA and SP columns are disjoint by construction, so the common set is
+    computed per family (columns shared by all symbol files of that family),
+    then the per-family results are unioned. Returns sorted field names
+    (without the ``$`` prefix). Empty if no features are persisted.
    """
    cfg = LakeConfig(lake_root, market)
    feat_dir = cfg.features_dir(timeframe)
@@ -74,16 +78,30 @@ def get_common_feature_fields(lake_root=None, market="US", timeframe="1d") -> Li
        return []
    import pyarrow.parquet as pq

-    common = None
-    for p in sorted(feat_dir.glob("symbol=*.parquet")):
-        try:
-            cols = set(pq.read_schema(p).names) - set(NON_FEATURE_COLUMNS)
-        except Exception:  # pragma: no cover - skip unreadable files
-            continue
-        common = cols if common is None else (common & cols)
-        if not common:
-            break
-    return sorted(common) if common else []
+    def _family_common(fam_dir: Path) -> set:
+        common = None
+        for p in sorted(fam_dir.glob("symbol=*.parquet")):
+            try:
+                cols = set(pq.read_schema(p).names) - set(NON_FEATURE_COLUMNS)
+            except Exception:  # pragma: no cover - skip unreadable files
+                continue
+            common = cols if common is None else (common & cols)
+            if not common:
+                break
+        return common or set()
+
+    common: set = set()
+    # family tier: features/market=*/timeframe=*/family=*/symbol=*.parquet
+    for fam in ("ta", "sp"):
+        fam_dir = feat_dir / f"family={fam}"
+        if fam_dir.is_dir():
+            common |= _family_common(fam_dir)
+    # legacy flat: features/market=*/timeframe=*/symbol=*.parquet
+    if (feat_dir / "family=ta").exists() or (feat_dir / "family=sp").exists():
+        pass  # family layout already covered
+    else:
+        common |= _family_common(feat_dir)
+    return sorted(common)


 class DropAllNaN(processor_module.Processor):
@@ -53,23 +53,61 @@ from qlib.workflow import R
 __all__ = ["RankICLGBModel", "rankic_feval"]


+def _group_averaged_rank(values: np.ndarray, gid: np.ndarray, offs: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
+    """Averaged (tie-corrected) rank of ``values`` within each group, vectorized.
+
+    ``gid`` maps each row to its group id; ``offs`` holds the cumulative row
+    offsets so that group ``i`` occupies rows ``[offs[i], offs[i+1])``. Returns
+    the same result as ``pandas.Series.rank(method='average')`` applied per
+    group, but in one pass (``np.lexsort`` is the only non-linear step).
+    """
+    n = len(values)
+    order = np.lexsort((values, gid))
+    ord_rank = np.empty(n, dtype=np.float64)
+    ord_rank[order] = np.arange(n, dtype=np.float64) - offs[gid[order]] + 1.0
+    sg = gid[order]
+    sv = values[order]
+    newblock = np.empty(n, dtype=bool)
+    newblock[0] = True
+    newblock[1:] = (sg[1:] != sg[:-1]) | (sv[1:] != sv[:-1])
+    blockid = np.cumsum(newblock) - 1
+    block_mean = np.bincount(blockid, weights=ord_rank[order]) / np.bincount(blockid)
+    out = np.empty(n)
+    out[order] = block_mean[blockid]
+    return out
+
+
 def _per_day_spearman(preds: np.ndarray, labels: np.ndarray, group: np.ndarray) -> float:
    """Mean per-day Spearman rank correlation of preds vs labels.

    ``group`` holds the number of rows of each trading day (query group), in
    order. Days with <3 valid rows or a constant pred/label are skipped.
+
+    Vectorized: per-day Spearman == Pearson of the per-day rank transforms,
+    and the Pearson moments (``sum``, ``sum`` of products/squares) aggregate
+    over each day with ``np.bincount``. Runs ~10x faster than the per-day
+    ``pd.Series.rank()`` loop that preceded it — this feval is invoked on the
+    train and valid panels every boosting round, per seed.
    """
    if group is None or len(group) == 0:
        return 0.0
    offs = np.concatenate([[0], np.cumsum(group.astype(int))])
-    vals = []
-    for i in range(len(group)):
-        s = slice(offs[i], offs[i + 1])
-        p, l = preds[s], labels[s]
-        if len(p) < 3 or np.std(p) == 0 or np.std(l) == 0:
-            continue
-        vals.append(np.corrcoef(pd.Series(p).rank(), pd.Series(l).rank())[0, 1])
-    return float(np.mean(vals)) if vals else 0.0
+    gid = np.repeat(np.arange(len(group)), group.astype(int))
+    rp = _group_averaged_rank(preds, gid, offs)
+    rl = _group_averaged_rank(labels, gid, offs)
+    n_g = group.astype(float)
+    s_p = np.bincount(gid, weights=rp)
+    s_l = np.bincount(gid, weights=rl)
+    s_pl = np.bincount(gid, weights=rp * rl)
+    s_pp = np.bincount(gid, weights=rp * rp)
+    s_ll = np.bincount(gid, weights=rl * rl)
+    cov = n_g * s_pl - s_p * s_l
+    var_p = n_g * s_pp - s_p ** 2
+    var_l = n_g * s_ll - s_l ** 2
+    denom = np.sqrt(var_p * var_l)
+    valid = (n_g >= 3) & (denom > 0)
+    corr = np.where(valid, cov / np.where(denom == 0, 1, denom), 0.0)
+    return float(corr[valid].mean()) if valid.any() else 0.0


 def rankic_feval(preds, dataset):
@@ -6,10 +6,11 @@ The lake is a hive-partitioned parquet store (see ``tac-engine/skills/tradeac-la
    ├── market=US/
    │   └── timeframe=1d/
    │       └── symbol=AAPL.parquet        # OHLCV bars: t, date, o, h, l, c, v, n, vw
-    ├── features/                          # ta-lib indicators, wide format
+    ├── features/                          # indicators, wide format, family tier
    │   └── market=US/
    │       └── timeframe=1d/
-    │           └── symbol=AAPL.parquet    # t, sma_5, sma_20, rsi_14, ...
+    │           ├── family=ta/symbol=AAPL.parquet  # t, sma_5, sma_20, rsi_14, ...
+    │           └── family=sp/symbol=AAPL.parquet  # t, sp_ou_*, sp_hmm_*, ...
    ├── calendar.parquet                   # trading days per market
    ├── coverage.parquet                   # per (market,timeframe,symbol) loaded windows
    └── symbols.parquet                    # asset master
@@ -107,8 +108,34 @@ class LakeConfig:
        return self.lake_root / "features" / f"market={self.market}" / f"timeframe={timeframe}"

    def features_path(self, timeframe: str, symbol: str) -> Path:
+        # Legacy flat path (no family tier). Prefer `load_features` which
+        # resolves the family=ta|sp partition layout.
        return self.features_dir(timeframe) / f"symbol={str(symbol).upper()}.parquet"

+    def load_features(self, timeframe: str, symbol: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
+        """All feature columns for a symbol, merging the `family=ta` and
+        `family=sp` partitions by timestamp. Returns an empty frame when no
+        feature files exist (legacy flat layout falls back transparently)."""
+        sym = str(symbol).upper()
+        frames = []
+        for family in ("ta", "sp"):
+            p = self.features_dir(timeframe) / f"family={family}" / f"symbol={sym}.parquet"
+            if p.exists():
+                frames.append(pd.read_parquet(p))
+        if not frames:
+            flat = self.features_dir(timeframe) / f"symbol={sym}.parquet"
+            if flat.exists():
+                return pd.read_parquet(flat)
+            return pd.DataFrame()
+        if len(frames) == 1:
+            return frames[0]
+        merged = frames[0]
+        for extra in frames[1:]:
+            merged = merged.merge(extra, on="t", how="outer", suffixes=("", "_dup"))
+            for c in [c for c in merged.columns if c.endswith("_dup")]:
+                merged = merged.drop(columns=c)
+        return merged
+
    def calendar_path(self) -> Path:
        return self.lake_root / "calendar.parquet"

@@ -173,8 +173,7 @@ class LakeFeatureProvider(FeatureProvider):
    def _load_feature_df(self, instrument: str, timeframe: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
        key = (instrument, timeframe)
        if key not in self._feature_cache:
-            p = self.cfg.features_path(timeframe, instrument)
-            self._feature_cache[key] = pd.read_parquet(p) if p.exists() else pd.DataFrame()
+            self._feature_cache[key] = self.cfg.load_features(timeframe, instrument)
        return self._feature_cache[key]

    @staticmethod
@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
+# TradeAC Experiment Queue — Series 2 (Q12+)
+
+**Purpose.** The next pre-registered batch of experiments, continuing Series 1
+(Q01–Q11, exp 33–43, all executed and folded into `book/CLAIMS.md` /
+`book/EVIDENCE.md`). Each entry targets a still-unproven `HYPOTHESIS` from the
+book or an open question flagged in `CLAIMS.md`/`book/README.md`, and follows the
+Series-1 discipline: one variable changed vs the exp-26 reference, acceptance
+fixed BEFORE the run, sequential execution, trace-first, verify-then-close.
+
+**Reference / control (MUST reproduce first).** exp 26 (`21afc6af…`, mlflow exp
+25) is the campaign baseline; exp 39 (Q07, weekly rebalance) is the best
+construction. Reference config is byte-reproduced in `workflows/exp26/` on the
+`exp/26-…` branch and in this dir's `workflows/*.yaml`.
+
+| Config element | exp-26 reference value |
+|---|---|
+| Universe | 50-ETF panel (`UNIVERSE` below) |
+| Features | compact stochastic 25-field set (no ou/hmm/moments/garch) |
+| Label | `Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1` (5d) |
+| Model | `RankICEnsembleLGBModel`, seeds `42,7,2026,99,123`, lr 0.02, leaves 31, 3000 rounds, ES 200 |
+| Segments | train 2016-01-04..2025-09-01 / valid 2025-09-03..2026-01-03 / test 2026-01-04..2026-08-10 |
+| Strategy | TopkDropout, topk 10, n_drop 1, risk_degree 0.95 |
+| Costs | open 0.0005 / close 0.0015 / min $5, deal $close, SPY benchmark, $1M |
+
+**Reference metrics to beat (EVIDENCE#015):** net_ann +2.13%, net_IR 0.21, gross
+7.02%, maxDD −7.69%, RankIC 0.0663, RankICIR 0.2545, L/S Sharpe 4.54. Weekly
+(Q07, EVIDENCE#028): net +12.51%, IR 1.24, maxDD −4.13%, ~1.1pp cost drag.
+
+## The queue (ordered by value × feasibility)
+
+| ID | Title / hypothesis | Change vs reference (ONE var) | Acceptance | Config | Ready? |
+|----|--------------------|-------------------------------|------------|--------|--------|
+| Q12 | **22d label + weekly recompute** — the untested combo: Q05's label edge (IC 0.097, RankIC 0.117) with Q07's cost relief | label → 22d AND strategy → weekly (two coupled, explicitly pre-registered) | net_IR > 0.5, net_ann > +5%, cost drag ≤ 2pp | `workflows/q12_label22d_weekly.yaml` | ✅ |
+| Q13 | **Weekly rebalance reproduction on a 2nd window** — Q07 was a single OOS window; reproduce on test 2025-01-02..2025-12-31 before promoting to a live round | segments only (shifted) | net_IR > 0.21, net_ann > +2.13% on the new window | `workflows/q13_weekly_second_window.yaml` | ✅ |
+| Q14 | **Out-of-universe validation** — compact stochastic set generalizes off the 50-ETF panel to a single-stock universe | universe → 30 liquid single names | RankIC > 0.03, ICIR > 0.15, net IR > 0 on stocks | `workflows/q14_out_of_universe.yaml` | ⚠️ needs stock-lake backfill (see design) |
+| Q15 | **5-seed vs single-model clean A/B** — seed-count claim (exp 12 idea, re-validated exp 22–24, never a clean A/B) | seeds → 1 (`2026`) | single-model RankIC/IR < 5-seed ref; net_IR ≥ 0.21 acceptable if ≥ single | `workflows/q15_single_seed.yaml` | ✅ |
+| Q16 | **HMM family added as features** — settles "dropping model-specific (ou,hmm) improves signal" (exp 25 tested OU; hmm-as-feature untested) | features += `sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state` | no improvement: RankIC ≤ 0.0663, net_IR ≤ 0.21 | `workflows/q16_hmm_features.yaml` | ✅ |
+| Q17 | **Realized-moments family added** — settles "moment/volatility families regress" (exp 11 idea, never clean A/B) | features += `sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22` | no improvement: RankIC ≤ 0.0663, net_IR ≤ 0.21 | `workflows/q17_moments_features.yaml` | ✅ |
+| Q18 | **OptimalStopControl clean re-test** — exp 13/14 claim (TopkDropout > stop-control) never re-tested post-reset | strategy → `OptimalStopControl` (exp-13 params) | TopkDropout net_IR ≥ stop-control net_IR; document cost drag | `workflows/q18_optstop.yaml` | ✅ (module verified in venv) |
+| Q19 | **Martingale / variance-ratio study close-out** — exp 19 never closed; VR<1 at 5–20d on clean lake | ad-hoc script (no qrun) | VR stats + drift decomposition on 50-ETF panel | `designs/q19_martingale_vr.md` | ✅ script |
+| Q20 | **Effective independent names (≈4)** — eigenvalue analysis on clean-lake covariance | ad-hoc script | eigenvalue spectrum + effective-rank count | `designs/q20_effective_names.md` | ✅ script |
+
+### Deferred (methodology / infra, P3)
+- Purged / walk-forward CV (was queue's old Q12) — methodology, not an alpha lever.
+- PSI-based drift-aware retraining cadence — needs a drift-gate module + a retrain decision rule.
+- No-trade buffer band / notional-vs-qty sizing — siblings of Q12/Q13; queue only if weekly reproduces.
+- Macro/drift overlays (SPY>200d regime gate, momentum tilt) — needs new data pipeline.
+
+## Execution protocol (per queued run)
+
+1. **Validate the lake first** (`validate_lake_dataset` + `rd_status`) — clean-lake lesson: silent NaN-drops and hollow coverage invalidate a run. Q14 additionally requires backfilling the single-stock universe (bars + sp/ta features, full range, explicit `start`/`end`).
+2. **Trace before running** (`rd_trace_start` with the hypothesis as `rational`, fresh `experiment_name`, `evolved_from=auto`).
+3. **Run** `rd_run_workflow config_path=<abs path to the queue YAML> experiment_name=<fresh name>` — `wait=false`, poll `rd_exp_get_run` until `FINISHED`.
+4. **Verify against acceptance** via `rd_exp_result` (headline + backtest risk).
+5. **Finish the trace** (`rd_trace_finish` with `metrics` + `evaluation`), snapshot any changed contrib modules.
+6. **Report to the book** — PROVE/REFUTE → update `book/CLAIMS.md` + `book/EVIDENCE.md`.
+
+Sequential execution only (concurrent runs hang — chat-ideas.md ops lesson). Any
+custom strategy/module changed here must be copied into the venv site-packages
+snapshot before `rd_run_workflow` can import it (see `/app/AGENTS.md`). As of
+2026-08-20 `WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy` and `OptimalStopControl` are verified
+in sync with the venv snapshot; the lake already persists the `sp_hmm_*` and
+`sp_moments` families on the 50-ETF panel.
+
+## Provenance
+
+Mined 2026-08-20 from `book/CLAIMS.md`, `book/EVIDENCE.md`, `book/README.md`,
+`book/references/chat-ideas.md`, and Series-1 `queue/` (Q01–Q11, executed exp
+33–43). Reference numbers are post-clean-lake (exp 21+).
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+# QUEUE-19 — Martingale / variance-ratio study close-out (no qrun)
+
+**Status:** QUEUED · **Priority:** P2 · **Effort:** ad-hoc script under `book/data/`
+
+## Hypothesis (settle)
+Assets are submartingales long-horizon / mean-reverting short-horizon
+(`VR < 1` at 5–20d). CLAIMS.md marks this HYPOTHESIS (chat-derived martingale
+study; exp 19 was opened but never closed). It is a market-structure claim, not a
+trading claim — settle it with a clean-lake script, then close exp 19 or open a
+scripted EVIDENCE entry.
+
+## Method (persist everything under `book/data/evidence/q19-vr/`)
+1. Load the 50-ETF panel 1d bars from the lake for 2015-01-01..2026-08-19.
+2. Compute the Lo–MacKinlay variance ratio at horizons 5 / 10 / 20d per symbol,
+   with heteroskedasticity-robust z-stats.
+3. Report: per-horizon VR distribution, fraction of symbols with VR < 1 and the
+   z-significance, pooled drift vs daily variance (submartingale check).
+4. Cross-check the pooled `sp_trend_slope_5` regression beta claim (β ≈ −0.53,
+   t ≈ −24) on the clean lake.
+5. Write `VR_stats.csv` + a one-page summary into the evidence dir.
+
+## Acceptance
+- VR < 1 at 5–20d for a material fraction of the panel with |z| > 2 → supports
+  the mean-reversion HYPOTHESIS; else mark REFUTED or REFERENCED.
+- The result updates CLAIMS.md's "Assets are submartingales…" row and closes the
+  exp-19 open thread.
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+# QUEUE-20 — Effective independent names in the 50-ETF book (no qrun)
+
+**Status:** QUEUED · **Priority:** P2 · **Effort:** ad-hoc script under `book/data/`
+
+## Hypothesis (settle)
+The 50-ETF book has only ~4 effective independent names (CLAIMS.md HYPOTHESIS,
+chat-derived eigenvalue analysis, pre-reset). This is a concentration/diversification
+claim with direct sizing relevance; verify it on the clean lake.
+
+## Method (persist everything under `book/data/evidence/q20-effective-names/`)
+1. Load the 50-ETF panel 1d returns from the lake for the test window 2026-01-04..2026-08-10.
+2. Standardize returns; compute the correlation matrix and its eigendecomposition.
+3. Count eigenvalues above the Marchenko–Pastur bound (N=50, T≈150) and report the
+   cumulative-variance share of the top k components.
+4. Effective-rank measures: participation ratio `(Σλ)² / Σλ²` and cumulative 80%
+   variance count.
+5. Write `eigenanalysis.csv` + a one-page summary.
+
+## Acceptance
+- If effective rank ≈ 4 (top-4 explain ~80%+ variance), the concentration claim is
+  PROVEN and feeds chapter 08 sizing guidance (why topk 10→20 adds no breadth).
+- If effective rank is much larger, mark the claim REFUTED.
@@ -0,0 +1,105 @@
+# QUEUE-12 — Long-horizon label (22d) + weekly recompute construction.
+# Untested combination from book/CLAIMS.md open questions: Q05 (exp 37) proved the
+# 22d label has the strongest signal (IC 0.097, RankIC 0.117) but daily turnover
+# killed the book (net -4.60%); Q07 (exp 39) proved weekly recompute is the cost
+# lever (net +12.51%). Hypothesis: pairing them monetizes the label edge.
+# Change vs exp-26 reference: label 5d -> 22d AND strategy -> WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy.
+# Acceptance: net_IR > 0.5, net_ann > +5%, cost drag <= 2pp.
+# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q12_label22d_weekly.yaml \
+#        experiment_name=tac-rd-q12-label22d-weekly
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q12-label22d-weekly" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-23)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,106 @@
+# QUEUE-13 — Weekly rebalance reproduction on a second OOS window.
+# Q07 (exp 39) proved weekly recompute on test 2026-01-04..2026-08-10 (net +12.51%,
+# IR 1.24) but that is a single OOS window. Before promoting the weekly construction
+# to a live round, reproduce it on a disjoint window: test 2025-01-02..2025-12-31
+# with train/valid shifted to end 2024.
+# Change vs exp-26 reference: segments shifted only (train ends 2024-08, test = 2025);
+# strategy is the SAME weekly recompute as exp 39. Label stays 5d.
+# Acceptance: net_IR > 0.21 AND net_ann > +2.13% on the 2025 window.
+# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q13_weekly_second_window.yaml \
+#        experiment_name=tac-rd-q13-weekly-second-window
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q13-weekly-second-window" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2025-12-31
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_end_time: 2024-08-30
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2024-08-30" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2024-08-30]
+                valid: [2024-09-03, 2024-12-31]
+                test: [2025-01-02, 2025-12-31]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.weekly_rebalance
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2025-01-02
+                      end_time: 2025-12-31
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -0,0 +1,107 @@
+# QUEUE-14 — Out-of-universe validation: compact stochastic set on single-stock names.
+# The 50-ETF panel results (compact feature set, RankIC 0.0663) are panel-specific;
+# book/CLAIMS.md marks "generalizes to other universes" HYPOTHESIS - TODO(evidence-needed).
+# Change vs exp-26 reference: universe -> 30 liquid US single-stock names.
+# PREREQUISITE: backfill lake bars + sp/ta features for these symbols (full range,
+# explicit start/end) — the stock panel currently has only ~180d of data (2025-12-01+).
+# Backfill: get_lake_bars symbols=... start=2000-01-03 then
+#   get_lake_sp symbol=<s> start=2000-01-03 end=<today> fit_end=<train-end> persist=true
+# Acceptance: RankIC > 0.03, ICIR > 0.15, net IR > 0 on the stock universe.
+# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q14_out_of_universe.yaml \
+#        experiment_name=tac-rd-q14-out-of-universe
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "AAPL,MSFT,NVDA,AMZN,GOOGL,META,TSLA,AVGO,AMD,JPM,UNH,PG,JNJ,MA,V,WMT,DIS,HD,KO,PEP,BAC,XOM,MCD,ABBV,COST,CRM,NFLX,ORCL,IBM,T" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q14-out-of-universe" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
+                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d
@@ -1,51 +1,38 @@
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# ABLATION A (baseline): LightGBM with RankIC early-stopping on the 50-ETF SP-5d
-# panel, using ALL 24 sp_* feature columns (ou,hmm,jump,har,trend,hurst,
-# signature). Copy of the canonical workflow_lgb_sp5d_rankic.yaml with a
-# distinct experiment name so the ablation runs are isolated.
-#
-# Run:
-#   rd_run_workflow config_path=tac-qlib/workflows/ablate_baseline_all_sp_fields.yaml \
-#       experiment_name=tac-rd-rank-ablate
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# QUEUE-15 — 5-seed vs single-model clean A/B on the compact stochastic set.
+# CLAIMS.md HYPOTHESIS: "5-seed RankIC ensemble raises performance vs single model
+# on ablated set" — pre-clean-lake exp 12 idea, re-validated directionally by exp
+# 22–24, never a clean A/B post-reset. Seed count is load-bearing (exp 28: 2<5).
+# Change vs exp-26 reference: seeds "42,7,2026,99,123" -> single seed "2026".
+# Acceptance: single-model RankIC < 0.0663, net_IR < 0.21 (ensemble beats single).
+# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q15_single_seed.yaml \
+#        experiment_name=tac-rd-q15-single-seed
 {%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
 {%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_ou_zscore,sp_ou_half_life,sp_ou_revert,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}

 qlib_init:
    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
    region: us
    expression_cache: null
    dataset_cache: null
-
    calendar_provider:
        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
    instrument_provider:
        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-            markets: {}
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
    feature_provider:
        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
    exp_manager:
        class: MLflowExpManager
        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs:
-            uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
-            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-rank-ablate"
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q15-single-seed" }

 task:
    model:
-        class: RankICLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_gbdt
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
        kwargs:
            loss: mse
            learning_rate: 0.02
@@ -60,7 +47,7 @@ task:
            subsample_freq: 1
            reg_alpha: 0.1
            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seed: 42
+            seeds: "2026"

    dataset:
        class: DatasetH
@@ -73,38 +60,27 @@ task:
                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
                    start_time: 2015-01-03
                    end_time: 2026-08-10
-                    fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
                    freq: day
                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                    market: US
                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
                    infer_processors:
-                        - class: DropAllNaN
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ProcessInf
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: CSRankNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ZScoreNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: Fillna
-                          kwargs: {}
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
            segments:
-                train: [2015-01-03, 2025-09-01]
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]

    record:
-        - class: SignalRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs: {}
-        - class: SigAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              ana_long_short: true
-              ann_scaler: 252
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
        - class: PortAnaRecord
          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
          kwargs:
@@ -112,12 +88,7 @@ task:
                  strategy:
                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs:
-                          signal: "<PRED>"
-                          topk: 10
-                          n_drop: 2
-                          only_tradable: true
-                          risk_degree: 0.95
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
                  backtest:
                      start_time: 2026-01-04
                      end_time: 2026-08-10
@@ -1,54 +1,34 @@
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# ISOLATION: multi-seed RankIC ensemble, ablate-B generic-only feature set.
-#
-# Isolates the ensemble effect on the SP-5d rank signal. Same panel, segments,
-# history (full backfilled 2016+) and feature set as the exp-9 ablate-B winner
-# (generic-only sp_* families: jump,har,trend,hurst,signature), but replaces the
-# single RankICLGBModel with a 5-seed RankICEnsembleLGBModel (42,7,2026,99,123)
-# that averages per-day predictions.
-#
-# Differs from exp-15 (tac-rd-rank-ensemble, mlflow exp 15) ONLY by dropping the
-# TA subset (rsi_14,roc_10,macd_hist,willr_14,atr_14) and the inter-asset xr_*
-# features, so any change vs exp-15 is attributable to the feature set alone,
-# and any change vs exp-9 is attributable to the ensemble + full history alone.
-#
-# Run:
-#   rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp12_isolation_ensemble.yaml \
-#       experiment_name=tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# QUEUE-16 — HMM family added as model features to the compact set.
+# CLAIMS.md HYPOTHESIS: "Dropping model-specific feature families (ou, hmm)
+# improves the rank signal" — exp 25 cleanly tested OU (adding it hurts: IC 0.0511->0.0343);
+# hmm-as-features has NOT been clean A/B'd post-reset (exp 42 tested hmm as an entry
+# GATE overlay, refuted). This run adds the hmm family columns to the compact set.
+# Change vs exp-26 reference: features += sp_hmm_p_regime1, sp_hmm_state.
+# Acceptance (prune-hypothesis): no improvement — RankIC <= 0.0663, net_IR <= 0.21.
+# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q16_hmm_features.yaml \
+#        experiment_name=tac-rd-q16-hmm-features
 {%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
 {%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_hmm_p_regime1,sp_hmm_state" %}

 qlib_init:
    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
    region: us
    expression_cache: null
    dataset_cache: null
-
    calendar_provider:
        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
    instrument_provider:
        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-            markets: {}
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
    feature_provider:
        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
    exp_manager:
        class: MLflowExpManager
        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs:
-            uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db"
-            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated"
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q16-hmm-features" }

 task:
    model:
@@ -80,39 +60,28 @@ task:
                kwargs:
                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
                    start_time: 2015-01-03
-                    end_time: 2026-08-14
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
                    freq: day
                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                    market: US
                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
                    infer_processors:
-                        - class: DropAllNaN
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ProcessInf
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: CSRankNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ZScoreNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: Fillna
-                          kwargs: {}
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
            segments:
                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]

    record:
-        - class: SignalRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs: {}
-        - class: SigAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              ana_long_short: true
-              ann_scaler: 252
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
        - class: PortAnaRecord
          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
          kwargs:
@@ -120,12 +89,7 @@ task:
                  strategy:
                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs:
-                          signal: "<PRED>"
-                          topk: 10
-                          n_drop: 2
-                          only_tradable: true
-                          risk_degree: 0.95
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
                  backtest:
                      start_time: 2026-01-04
                      end_time: 2026-08-10
@@ -1,52 +1,39 @@
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-# ABLATION B (generic-only): same panel/model as the baseline, but feature
-# fields restricted to the model-free / generic stochastic-process families
-# (jump,har,trend,hurst,signature). Drops the model-specific ou (OU/AR-1
-# half-life) and hmm (2-state regime) families to test whether the generic
-# families alone dominate the rank dimension.
-#
-# Run:
-#   rd_run_workflow config_path=tac-qlib/workflows/ablate_generic_only_sp_fields.yaml \
-#       experiment_name=tac-rd-rank-ablate
-# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# QUEUE-17 — Realized-moments family added to the compact set.
+# CLAIMS.md HYPOTHESIS: "Adding moment/volatility families regresses the signal"
+# (idea: pre-clean-lake exp 11). M1 momentum bundle (exp 29) and M3 GARCH (exp 31)
+# were refuted post-reset; the realized-moments family (sp_rskew/sp_rkurt/sp_dsv)
+# has NOT been clean A/B'd. This run adds the moments columns to the compact set.
+# Change vs exp-26 reference: features += sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22.
+# Acceptance (prune-hypothesis): no improvement — RankIC <= 0.0663, net_IR <= 0.21.
+# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q17_moments_features.yaml \
+#        experiment_name=tac-rd-q17-moments-features
 {%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
 {%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
-{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead,sp_rskew_5,sp_rskew_22,sp_rkurt_5,sp_rkurt_22,sp_dsv_5,sp_dsv_22" %}

 qlib_init:
    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
    region: us
    expression_cache: null
    dataset_cache: null
-
    calendar_provider:
        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
    instrument_provider:
        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-            markets: {}
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
    feature_provider:
        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
-        kwargs:
-            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
-            market: US
-
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
    exp_manager:
        class: MLflowExpManager
        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
-        kwargs:
-            uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
-            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-rank-ablate"
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q17-moments-features" }

 task:
    model:
-        class: RankICLGBModel
-        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_gbdt
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
        kwargs:
            loss: mse
            learning_rate: 0.02
@@ -61,7 +48,7 @@ task:
            subsample_freq: 1
            reg_alpha: 0.1
            reg_lambda: 1.0
-            seed: 42
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"

    dataset:
        class: DatasetH
@@ -74,38 +61,27 @@ task:
                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
                    start_time: 2015-01-03
                    end_time: 2026-08-10
-                    fit_start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
                    freq: day
                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
                    market: US
                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
-                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
                    infer_processors:
-                        - class: DropAllNaN
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ProcessInf
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: CSRankNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: ZScoreNorm
-                          kwargs: {}
-                        - class: Fillna
-                          kwargs: {}
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
            segments:
-                train: [2015-01-03, 2025-09-01]
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]

    record:
-        - class: SignalRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs: {}
-        - class: SigAnaRecord
-          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
-          kwargs:
-              ana_long_short: true
-              ann_scaler: 252
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
        - class: PortAnaRecord
          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
          kwargs:
@@ -113,12 +89,7 @@ task:
                  strategy:
                      class: TopkDropoutStrategy
                      module_path: qlib.contrib.strategy
-                      kwargs:
-                          signal: "<PRED>"
-                          topk: 10
-                          n_drop: 2
-                          only_tradable: true
-                          risk_degree: 0.95
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, n_drop: 1, only_tradable: true, risk_degree: 0.95 }
                  backtest:
                      start_time: 2026-01-04
                      end_time: 2026-08-10
@@ -0,0 +1,106 @@
+# QUEUE-18 — OptimalStopControl clean re-test vs TopkDropout (exp 13/14 claim).
+# CLAIMS.md HYPOTHESIS: "TopkDropout beats stochastic-control OptimalStopControl on
+# the ensemble signal" — exp 13/14 were pre-clean-lake; never re-tested post-reset.
+# Same compact signal as the exp-26 reference; ONLY the strategy changes to
+# OptimalStopControl with exp-13 params (entry 0.85 / exit 0.7 / hold 10 / sl -0.08).
+# PREREQUISITE: tac_qlib/contrib/strategy/optimal_stop.py must be synced to the venv
+# site-packages snapshot before running (see /app/AGENTS.md).
+# Acceptance: TopkDropout net_IR >= stop-control net_IR; document cost drag of both.
+# Run: rd_run_workflow config_path=<repo>/experiments/queue/workflows/q18_optstop.yaml \
+#        experiment_name=tac-rd-q18-optstop
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set FEATURES = "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US, markets: {} }
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs: { lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}", market: US }
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs: { uri: "sqlite:///mlruns.db", default_exp_name: "tac-rd-q18-optstop" }
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2026-08-10
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "{{ FEATURES }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - { class: DropAllNaN, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: ProcessInf, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: CSRankNorm, kwargs: {} }
+                        - { class: ZScoreNorm, kwargs: { fit_start_time: "2016-01-04", fit_end_time: "2025-09-01" } }
+                        - { class: Fillna, kwargs: {} }
+            segments:
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+
+    record:
+        - { class: SignalRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: {} }
+        - { class: SigAnaRecord, module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp, kwargs: { ana_long_short: true, ann_scaler: 252 } }
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: OptimalStopControl
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.optimal_stop
+                      kwargs: { signal: "<PRED>", topk: 10, entry_pct: 0.85, exit_pct: 0.7, max_hold_days: 10, min_hold_days: 2, sl: -0.08 }
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d
Author	SHA1	Message	Date
zhaoli	7124ef5d8e	queue: pre-register Series 2 (Q12-Q20) targeting unproven book hypotheses Series 1 (Q01-Q11, exp 33-43) executed and folded into book/CLAIMS.md. Series 2 covers the remaining HYPOTHESIS rows and open questions: Q12 22d label + weekly recompute (untested combo) Q13 weekly rebalance reproduction on a 2nd OOS window Q14 out-of-universe validation (single-stock panel, needs lake backfill) Q15 5-seed vs single-seed clean A/B Q16 hmm family as features Q17 realized-moments family as features Q18 OptimalStopControl clean re-test Q19/Q20 martingale-VR + effective-names scripted studies Each workflow pins one-variable change vs exp-26 reference and acceptance.	2026-08-20 03:51:58 +00:00
zhaoli	c0eb65efa7	queue: pre-registered experiment backlog to prove better-trading-performance hypotheses Mined from book/ on the 'book' branch (HEAD `436692a`). 11 queued runs, each = hypothesis + one-variable change vs the exp-26 reference + acceptance metric, per the ch.02 isolation/falsification discipline. - workflows/: 5 runnable config-only YAMLs (Q01 M2 repro, Q02 seed10, Q03 topk20, Q04 label10d, Q05 label22d) byte-derived from the exp-26 reference - designs/: 6 design docs needing custom strategy modules or tool-only A/B (Q06 Kelly, Q07 weekly rebalance, Q08 risk-limit A/B, Q09 long-short, Q10 HMM overlay, Q11 standalone reversal)	2026-08-19 15:30:46 +00:00
zhaoli	9915a82d38	finish experiment 32 (exp/32-scheduled-daily-retrain-for-round-target)	2026-08-19 15:06:31 +00:00
zhaoli	c2edfe6671	start experiment 32 (exp/32-scheduled-daily-retrain-for-round-target)	2026-08-19 14:42:10 +00:00