exp 20: exp 20: 5 improvement workflows (R1 2seed, R2 momentum gate, R3 HMM risk gate, R4 rolling-IC blend, R5 MA3/EWMA features) + strategy modules + lake sma_3/ema_3 persisted

2026-08-17 02:56:46 +00:00
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+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# EXP 20 - R1: 2-seed ensemble (seeds 42,7), TopkDropout baseline.
+#
+# Runtime cut: 2 seeds instead of 5. Everything else identical to the reference
+# (test 2026-01-04..2026-08-10, SPY, costs 5bp/15bp). Measures whether the
+# 2-seed ensemble keeps the reference quality at ~2/5 the training time.
+#
+# Run:
+#   rd_run_workflow config_path=experiments/workflows/exp20-risk-limit-improve/r1_2seed.yaml \
+#       experiment_name=tac-rd-risk-limit
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+{%- set LAKE = TAC_LAKE_DIR %}
+{%- set UNIVERSE = "SPY,QQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY,VTI,VOO,VEA,VWO,VT,EFA,EEM,TLT,IEF,SHY,AGG,BND,LQD,HYG,JNK,EMB,GLD,SLV,USO,UNG,DBA,DBC,XLK,XLF,XLE,XLV,XLI,XLY,XLP,XLU,XLB,XLRE,ARKK,SMH,SOXX,IBB,XBI,ITA,XAR,ICLN,TAN,FDN,IGV,ESPO,REM" %}
+{%- set SP_FIELDS = "sp_ret,sp_jump_ratio,sp_jump_flag,sp_jump_tail,sp_max_move,sp_rv1,sp_rv5,sp_rv22,sp_vol_ratio_5_22,sp_vol_ratio_1_22,sp_trend_slope_5,sp_trend_slope_20,sp_trend_slope_60,sp_logp,sp_hurst_exponent,sp_sig_level1_lead,sp_sig_level1_lag,sp_sig_level2_lead_lag,sp_sig_level2_lag_lead" %}
+
+qlib_init:
+    provider_uri: "{{ LAKE }}"
+    region: us
+    expression_cache: null
+    dataset_cache: null
+
+    calendar_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeCalendarProvider
+        kwargs:
+            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+            market: US
+    instrument_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeInstrumentProvider
+        kwargs:
+            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+            market: US
+            markets: {}
+    feature_provider:
+        class: tac_qlib.data.providers.LakeFeatureProvider
+        kwargs:
+            lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+            market: US
+
+    exp_manager:
+        class: MLflowExpManager
+        module_path: qlib.workflow.expm
+        kwargs:
+            uri: "sqlite:///{{ LAKE }}/mlruns.db"
+            default_exp_name: "tac-rd-risk-limit"
+
+task:
+    model:
+        class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
+        module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
+        kwargs:
+            loss: mse
+            learning_rate: 0.02
+            num_leaves: 31
+            n_estimators: 3000
+            num_boost_round: 3000
+            early_stopping_rounds: 200
+            min_data_in_leaf: 20
+            lambda_l2: 0.5
+            colsample_bytree: 0.8
+            subsample: 0.8
+            subsample_freq: 1
+            reg_alpha: 0.1
+            reg_lambda: 1.0
+            seeds: "42,7"
+            parallel: 2
+
+    dataset:
+        class: DatasetH
+        module_path: qlib.data.dataset
+        kwargs:
+            handler:
+                class: TACHandler
+                module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.data.handler
+                kwargs:
+                    instruments: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                    start_time: 2015-01-03
+                    end_time: 2026-08-14
+                    fit_start_time: 2016-01-04
+                    fit_end_time: 2025-09-01
+                    freq: day
+                    lake_root: "{{ LAKE }}"
+                    market: US
+                    label: "Ref($close,-6)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
+                    feature_fields: "$open,$high,$low,$close,$vwap,$volume,{{ SP_FIELDS }}"
+                    infer_processors:
+                        - class: DropAllNaN
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: ProcessInf
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: CSRankNorm
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: ZScoreNorm
+                          kwargs: {}
+                        - class: Fillna
+                          kwargs: {}
+            segments:
+                train: [2016-01-04, 2025-09-01]
+                valid: [2025-09-03, 2026-01-03]
+                test: [2026-01-04, 2026-08-10]
+
+    record:
+        - class: SignalRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs: {}
+        - class: SigAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              ana_long_short: true
+              ann_scaler: 252
+        - class: PortAnaRecord
+          module_path: qlib.workflow.record_temp
+          kwargs:
+              config:
+                  strategy:
+                      class: HmmRiskTopk
+                      module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.strategy.hmm_risk
+                      kwargs:
+                          signal: "<PRED>"
+                          topk: 10
+                          n_drop: 2
+                          hmm_pause_pct: 0.70
+                          drawdown_pause_pct: 8.0
+                          liquidity_floor_adv: 5000000
+                          only_tradable: true
+                          risk_degree: 0.95
+                  backtest:
+                      start_time: 2026-01-04
+                      end_time: 2026-08-10
+                      account: 1000000
+                      benchmark: SPY
+                      exchange_kwargs:
+                          codes: "{{ UNIVERSE }}"
+                          deal_price: $close
+                          freq: day
+                          open_cost: 0.0005
+                          close_cost: 0.0015
+                          min_cost: 5.0
+              risk_analysis_freq: 1d