start experiment 57 (exp/57-signal-quality-gate-gate-trades-based-on)
This commit is contained in:
zhaoli
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from . import data # noqa: F401 (registers tac_qlib.contrib.data)
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from . import model, strategy # noqa: F401
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from .data import TACHandler # noqa: F401
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from .model import RankICLGBModel # noqa: F401
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from .strategy import OptimalStopControl # noqa: F401
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__all__ = [
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"TACHandler",
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"RankICLGBModel",
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"OptimalStopControl",
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]
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from .handler import TACHandler
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__all__ = ["TACHandler"]
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"""TACHandler: a qlib DataHandlerLP that builds datasets from the TradeAC lake.
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This is the "custom DataHandler" entry point (Option B): the handler is referenced from the
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workflow yaml's ``dataset.handler`` and reads OHLCV + pre-computed ta-lib features straight
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from the lake parquet files through ``QLibDataLoader`` + the tac_qlib feature provider.
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The standard qlib processor pipeline (``infer_processors`` / ``learn_processors``) still runs
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on top, so existing recipes such as ``DropnaLabel``, ``CSZScoreNorm`` or ``RobustZScoreNorm``
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keep working unchanged.
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import os
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from inspect import getfullargspec
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from typing import List, Optional, Tuple, Union
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from qlib.data.dataset import processor as processor_module
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from qlib.data.dataset.handler import DataHandlerLP
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from qlib.utils import get_callable_kwargs
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from ...data.config import (
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LakeConfig,
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timeframe_for_freq,
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NON_FEATURE_COLUMNS,
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)
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DEFAULT_INFER_PROCESSORS = [
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{"class": "DropAllNaN", "kwargs": {}},
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{"class": "ProcessInf", "kwargs": {}},
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{"class": "ZScoreNorm", "kwargs": {}},
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{"class": "Fillna", "kwargs": {}},
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]
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DEFAULT_LEARN_PROCESSORS = [
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{"class": "DropnaLabel"},
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{"class": "CSZScoreNorm", "kwargs": {"fields_group": "label"}},
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]
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#: always include raw OHLCV; ta-lib columns are discovered from the lake and appended.
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RAW_FEATURE_FIELDS = ("$open", "$high", "$low", "$close", "$vwap", "$volume")
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DEFAULT_LABEL = "Ref($close,-2)/Ref($close,-1)-1"
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def check_transform_proc(proc_l, fit_start_time, fit_end_time):
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"""Port of ``qlib.contrib.data.handler.check_transform_proc`` (inject fit window into procs)."""
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new_l = []
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for p in proc_l:
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if not isinstance(p, processor_module.Processor):
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klass, pkwargs = get_callable_kwargs(p, processor_module)
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args = getfullargspec(klass).args
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if "fit_start_time" in args and "fit_end_time" in args:
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assert fit_start_time is not None and fit_end_time is not None, (
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"Make sure `fit_start_time` and `fit_end_time` are not None."
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)
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pkwargs.update({"fit_start_time": fit_start_time, "fit_end_time": fit_end_time})
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proc_config = {"class": klass.__name__, "kwargs": pkwargs}
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if isinstance(p, dict) and "module_path" in p:
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proc_config["module_path"] = p["module_path"]
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new_l.append(proc_config)
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else:
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new_l.append(p)
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return new_l
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def get_common_feature_fields(lake_root=None, market="US", timeframe="1d") -> List[str]:
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"""Discover feature columns present in *every* feature file of the lake.
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Walks the `family=ta|sp` partition layout (plus any legacy flat files).
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TA and SP columns are disjoint by construction, so the common set is
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computed per family (columns shared by all symbol files of that family),
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then the per-family results are unioned. Returns sorted field names
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(without the ``$`` prefix). Empty if no features are persisted.
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"""
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cfg = LakeConfig(lake_root, market)
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feat_dir = cfg.features_dir(timeframe)
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if not feat_dir.exists():
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return []
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import pyarrow.parquet as pq
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def _family_common(fam_dir: Path) -> set:
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common = None
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for p in sorted(fam_dir.glob("symbol=*.parquet")):
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try:
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cols = set(pq.read_schema(p).names) - set(NON_FEATURE_COLUMNS)
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except Exception: # pragma: no cover - skip unreadable files
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continue
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common = cols if common is None else (common & cols)
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if not common:
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break
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return common or set()
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common: set = set()
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# family tier: features/market=*/timeframe=*/family=*/symbol=*.parquet
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for fam in ("ta", "sp"):
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fam_dir = feat_dir / f"family={fam}"
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if fam_dir.is_dir():
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common |= _family_common(fam_dir)
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# legacy flat: features/market=*/timeframe=*/symbol=*.parquet
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if (feat_dir / "family=ta").exists() or (feat_dir / "family=sp").exists():
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pass # family layout already covered
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else:
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common |= _family_common(feat_dir)
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return sorted(common)
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class DropAllNaN(processor_module.Processor):
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"""Drop feature columns that are all-NaN over the fit window.
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The lake can hold fully-empty indicator columns (e.g. a ta-lib output that was NaN
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from the start). Such columns carry no learnable signal and make ``ZScoreNorm.fit``
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warn on empty slices, so we drop them before any other processor runs. The drop set
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is fixed on the fit window once (during ``fit``), then applied consistently to every
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segment so train/valid/test keep identical feature columns.
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"""
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def __init__(self, fit_start_time=None, fit_end_time=None):
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self.fit_start_time = fit_start_time
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self.fit_end_time = fit_end_time
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self.cols_to_drop = []
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def fit(self, df=None):
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if df is None or len(df) == 0:
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return self
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window = df
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if self.fit_start_time is not None and self.fit_end_time is not None:
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try:
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from qlib.data.dataset.utils import fetch_df_by_index
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window = fetch_df_by_index(
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df, slice(self.fit_start_time, self.fit_end_time), level="datetime"
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)
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except Exception: # pragma: no cover - defensive
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window = df
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if len(window) == 0:
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return self
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self.cols_to_drop = [c for c in window.columns if window[c].isna().all()]
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return self
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def __call__(self, df):
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if self.cols_to_drop:
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return df.drop(columns=self.cols_to_drop, errors="ignore")
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return df
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class TACHandler(DataHandlerLP):
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"""DataHandlerLP backed by the TradeAC parquet lake.
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Parameters mirror ``Alpha158``: ``instruments``/``start_time``/``end_time``/``freq`` define
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the queried window; ``feature_fields`` selects the features (default: raw OHLCV + all common
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ta-lib columns found in the lake); ``label`` is a qlib expression for the target.
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"""
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def __init__(
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self,
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instruments="all",
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start_time=None,
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end_time=None,
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freq="day",
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infer_processors=DEFAULT_INFER_PROCESSORS,
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learn_processors=DEFAULT_LEARN_PROCESSORS,
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fit_start_time=None,
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fit_end_time=None,
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process_type=DataHandlerLP.PTYPE_A,
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filter_pipe=None,
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feature_fields=None,
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label=DEFAULT_LABEL,
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lake_root=None,
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market="US",
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**kwargs,
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):
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# default the processor fit window to the queried window (like Alpha158 without a split)
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if fit_start_time is None:
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fit_start_time = start_time
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if fit_end_time is None:
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fit_end_time = end_time
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infer_processors = check_transform_proc(infer_processors, fit_start_time, fit_end_time)
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learn_processors = check_transform_proc(learn_processors, fit_start_time, fit_end_time)
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feature_fields = self._normalize_feature_fields(feature_fields, freq, lake_root, market)
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if not feature_fields:
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raise ValueError(
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"no feature fields available for the lake; set `feature_fields` explicitly "
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"(e.g. ['$close', '$rsi_14', '$sma_20'])"
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)
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label_expr, label_names = self._normalize_label(label)
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data_loader = {
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"class": "QlibDataLoader",
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"kwargs": {
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"config": {
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"feature": (feature_fields, feature_fields),
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"label": (label_expr, label_names),
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},
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"filter_pipe": filter_pipe,
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"freq": freq,
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},
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}
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super().__init__(
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instruments=instruments,
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start_time=start_time,
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end_time=end_time,
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data_loader=data_loader,
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infer_processors=infer_processors,
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learn_processors=learn_processors,
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process_type=process_type,
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**kwargs,
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)
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# ------------------------------------------------------------------ config
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@staticmethod
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def _normalize_feature_fields(feature_fields, freq, lake_root, market) -> List[str]:
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if feature_fields is None:
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common = get_common_feature_fields(lake_root, market, timeframe_for_freq(freq))
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feature_fields = list(RAW_FEATURE_FIELDS) + ["$" + f for f in common if "$" + f not in RAW_FEATURE_FIELDS]
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elif isinstance(feature_fields, str):
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feature_fields = [f.strip() for f in feature_fields.split(",") if f.strip()]
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fields = [f if f.startswith("$") else "$" + f for f in feature_fields]
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# de-dup while preserving order
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seen, out = set(), []
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for f in fields:
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if f not in seen:
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seen.add(f)
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out.append(f)
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return out
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@staticmethod
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def _normalize_label(label) -> Tuple[List[str], List[str]]:
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if isinstance(label, str):
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return [label], ["LABEL0"]
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if isinstance(label, (list, tuple)):
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if len(label) == 2 and isinstance(label[0], str):
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return [label[0]], list(label[1]) if isinstance(label[1], (list, tuple)) else [label[1]]
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return list(label), ["LABEL%d" % i for i in range(len(label))]
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raise TypeError(f"unsupported label config: {label!r}")
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# ------------------------------------------------------------------ utils
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def get_label_config(self):
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return DEFAULT_LABEL
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@staticmethod
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def discover_feature_fields(lake_root=None, market="US", freq="day") -> List[str]:
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return get_common_feature_fields(lake_root, market, timeframe_for_freq(freq))
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__all__ = ["TACHandler", "DropAllNaN", "get_common_feature_fields"]
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# Make `DropAllNaN` resolvable by bare name from processor configs (e.g. the default
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# ``infer_processors`` and workflow yamls that reference it without a ``module_path``),
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# mirroring how qlib registers its own processors in ``qlib.data.dataset.processor``.
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processor_module.DropAllNaN = DropAllNaN
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from .rank_ensemble import RankICEnsembleLGBModel # noqa: F401
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from .rank_gbdt import RankICLGBModel, rankic_feval # noqa: F401
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__all__ = ["RankICLGBModel", "rankic_feval", "RankICEnsembleLGBModel"]
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"""Seed-ensembled LightGBM that early-stops on cross-sectional RankIC.
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``RankICEnsembleLGBModel`` wraps ``RankICLGBModel`` (per-day RankIC feval +
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``metric='None'`` + ``first_metric_only`` early stopping) over a seed ensemble:
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one sub-model is trained per seed with identical hyper-parameters, and
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predictions are averaged across seeds. This is the model class the
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``tac-rd-rank-ensemble-isolated`` reference run wires into its workflow
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(``module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble``).
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The ensemble inherits the RankIC early-stopping behaviour of the single-seed
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model (valid RankIC drives the stopping iteration) while the seed averaging
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stabilizes the prediction against any single seed's early-stopping path.
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Training is parallelized: the seed sub-models train in a thread pool —
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``lgb.train`` is C++ and releases the GIL, so concurrent seeds do not block on
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the GIL (5 seeds ~40min/5 on this box). Measured on a 6-physical-core / 12 SMT
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host: the seeds scale ~2x, not linearly — the runs are memory-bandwidth bound
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and each Booster caps its threads at ``cores // workers`` so 5 concurrent
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boosters don't oversubscribe; larger-core hosts scale better. The qlib data
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pipeline is warmed once on the calling thread (fills the handler cache), and
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each worker then prepares its **own** ``lgb.Dataset`` (independent handle, so
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no concurrent ``construct()`` on a shared handle — LightGBM's ``Dataset`` is
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not thread-safe to build). qlib's ``R`` recorder is also not thread-safe, so
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the per-seed evaluation curves are logged on the calling thread after the pool
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finishes.
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Wired into a workflow yaml like:
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model:
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class: RankICEnsembleLGBModel
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module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_ensemble
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kwargs:
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loss: mse
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learning_rate: 0.02
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num_leaves: 31
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n_estimators: 3000
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num_boost_round: 3000
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early_stopping_rounds: 200
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min_data_in_leaf: 20
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lambda_l2: 0.5
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colsample_bytree: 0.8
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subsample: 0.8
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subsample_freq: 1
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reg_alpha: 0.1
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reg_lambda: 1.0
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seeds: "42,7,2026,99,123"
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parallel: 5
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Any ``**kwargs`` other than ``seeds``/``parallel`` are forwarded unchanged to
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every ``RankICLGBModel`` sub-model (same params, different ``seed``).
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import os
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from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor
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from typing import List, Optional
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import pandas as pd
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from qlib.data.dataset import DatasetH
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from qlib.data.dataset.handler import DataHandlerLP
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from tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_gbdt import RankICLGBModel
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__all__ = ["RankICEnsembleLGBModel"]
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class RankICEnsembleLGBModel(RankICLGBModel):
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"""Seed ensemble of RankIC-early-stopping LightGBM models.
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Parameters
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----------
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seeds : comma-separated integers, one sub-model per seed.
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parallel : number of seeds to train concurrently. ``0`` (default) = auto
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(all seeds, bounded by the available cores); ``1`` = sequential.
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**kwargs : forwarded to every ``RankICLGBModel`` sub-model (model
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hyper-parameters). ``seeds``/``parallel`` are consumed here and not
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forwarded.
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"""
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def __init__(self, seeds: str = "42", parallel: int = 0, **kwargs):
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self.seeds = [int(s.strip()) for s in str(seeds).split(",") if s.strip()]
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if not self.seeds:
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raise ValueError("seeds must contain at least one integer")
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self.parallel = int(parallel)
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# drop seed/parallel handling from the base kwargs, keep everything else
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self._model_kwargs = dict(kwargs)
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super().__init__(**self._model_kwargs)
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self._models: List[RankICLGBModel] = []
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# --------------------------------------------------------------- helpers
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@staticmethod
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def _cores() -> int:
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try:
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return max(1, len(os.sched_getaffinity(0)))
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except AttributeError:
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return max(1, os.cpu_count() or 1)
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def _worker_count(self) -> int:
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if self.parallel > 0:
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return min(len(self.seeds), self.parallel)
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return min(len(self.seeds), self._cores())
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# ------------------------------------------------------------------ fit
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def fit(
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self,
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dataset: DatasetH,
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num_boost_round: Optional[int] = None,
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early_stopping_rounds: Optional[int] = None,
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verbose_eval: int = 20,
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evals_result=None,
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reweighter=None,
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**kwargs,
|
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):
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"""Train one RankICLGBModel per seed and keep them for prediction.
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|
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The qlib data pipeline is warmed once on this thread (handler cache),
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then each seed sub-model trains in a parallel worker thread on its own
|
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``lgb.Dataset`` (LightGBM releases the GIL in ``lgb.train``). Evals
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are logged on this thread after the pool (qlib's ``R`` is not
|
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thread-safe).
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"""
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n_round = num_boost_round or self.num_boost_round
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n_es = early_stopping_rounds or self.early_stopping_rounds
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if len(self.seeds) == 1:
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m = RankICLGBModel(seed=self.seeds[0], **self._model_kwargs)
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m.fit(
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dataset,
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num_boost_round=n_round,
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early_stopping_rounds=n_es,
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verbose_eval=verbose_eval,
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||||
evals_result=evals_result,
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reweighter=reweighter,
|
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**kwargs,
|
||||
)
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self._models = [m]
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return
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||||
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||||
# Warm the qlib handler cache once on this thread so the workers'
|
||||
# concurrent prepare() calls only hit cached frames (no first-write race).
|
||||
proto = RankICLGBModel(seed=self.seeds[0], **self._model_kwargs)
|
||||
proto._prepare_data(dataset, reweighter)
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||||
|
||||
workers = self._worker_count()
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||||
# Cap per-Booster threads so concurrent seeds don't oversubscribe
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||||
# (LightGBM's num_threads=0 uses ALL cores per Booster).
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||||
per_booster = max(1, self._cores() // workers)
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||||
|
||||
def fit_seed(seed):
|
||||
m = RankICLGBModel(seed=seed, **self._model_kwargs)
|
||||
if workers > 1 and "num_threads" not in m.params:
|
||||
m.params["num_threads"] = per_booster
|
||||
ds_l = m._prepare_data(dataset, reweighter)
|
||||
booster, evals, names = m._train_from_datasets(
|
||||
ds_l,
|
||||
num_boost_round=n_round,
|
||||
early_stopping_rounds=n_es,
|
||||
verbose_eval=verbose_eval,
|
||||
**kwargs,
|
||||
)
|
||||
m.model = booster
|
||||
return m, evals, names
|
||||
|
||||
with ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=workers) as ex:
|
||||
results = list(ex.map(fit_seed, self.seeds))
|
||||
|
||||
self._models = [m for m, _, _ in results]
|
||||
|
||||
# Merge + log evals on the main thread (qlib's R is not thread-safe).
|
||||
if evals_result is not None:
|
||||
for m, evals, names in results:
|
||||
for k in names:
|
||||
for key, val in evals.get(k, {}).items():
|
||||
evals_result.setdefault(f"{k}.seed{m.params['seed']}", {})[key] = val
|
||||
for m, evals, names in results:
|
||||
self._log_evals(evals, names, prefix=f"seed{m.params['seed']}.")
|
||||
|
||||
# -------------------------------------------------------------- predict
|
||||
def predict(self, dataset: DatasetH, segment="test") -> pd.Series:
|
||||
"""Average the per-seed predictions over the given segment."""
|
||||
if not self._models:
|
||||
raise ValueError("model is not fitted yet!")
|
||||
preds = [m.predict(dataset, segment=segment) for m in self._models]
|
||||
if len(preds) == 1:
|
||||
return preds[0]
|
||||
frame = pd.concat(preds, axis=1)
|
||||
return frame.mean(axis=1)
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,238 @@
|
||||
"""LGBModel variant that early-stops on cross-sectional RankIC instead of l2.
|
||||
|
||||
Standard qlib ``LGBModel`` early-stops on the regression loss (mse). For
|
||||
cross-sectional alpha signals the quantity we actually care about is the per-day
|
||||
rank correlation (Rank IC), which mse early-stopping does not optimize for.
|
||||
Experiments on the 50-ETF lake (SP-5d 55-feature panel) show that early-stopping
|
||||
on a custom RankIC feval lifts RankIC 0.047 -> 0.075 vs. the mse-stopped model.
|
||||
|
||||
This class reuses ``LGBModel``'s data preparation but:
|
||||
|
||||
- tags each ``lgb.Dataset`` with per-day query ``group`` sizes so a ranking
|
||||
metric can be computed per trading day;
|
||||
- injects a custom ``feval`` (mean per-day Spearman of pred vs label) into
|
||||
``lgb.train``; early stopping then selects the iteration that maximizes
|
||||
RankIC on the valid set;
|
||||
- forces ``metric='None'`` + ``first_metric_only=True`` so early-stopping
|
||||
tracks RankIC only (not the regression loss).
|
||||
|
||||
Wired into a workflow yaml like:
|
||||
|
||||
model:
|
||||
class: RankICLGBModel
|
||||
module_path: tac_qlib.contrib.model.rank_gbdt
|
||||
kwargs:
|
||||
loss: mse
|
||||
learning_rate: 0.03
|
||||
num_leaves: 31
|
||||
n_estimators: 500
|
||||
...
|
||||
|
||||
The rank feval is used for early-stopping selection only; the objective stays
|
||||
the configured loss (default mse). Set ``rank_eval=False`` to fall back to the
|
||||
plain LGBModel behaviour (early-stop on the loss).
|
||||
|
||||
Generic: works for any cross-sectional panel whose qlib dataset index has a
|
||||
``datetime`` level (each level value = one query group). The per-day groups are
|
||||
derived automatically, so no universe-specific configuration is needed.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||
|
||||
from typing import List, Optional, Tuple
|
||||
|
||||
import numpy as np
|
||||
import pandas as pd
|
||||
import lightgbm as lgb
|
||||
|
||||
from qlib.data.dataset import DatasetH
|
||||
from qlib.data.dataset.handler import DataHandlerLP
|
||||
from qlib.contrib.model.gbdt import LGBModel
|
||||
from qlib.workflow import R
|
||||
|
||||
__all__ = ["RankICLGBModel", "rankic_feval"]
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _group_averaged_rank(values: np.ndarray, gid: np.ndarray, offs: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
|
||||
"""Averaged (tie-corrected) rank of ``values`` within each group, vectorized.
|
||||
|
||||
``gid`` maps each row to its group id; ``offs`` holds the cumulative row
|
||||
offsets so that group ``i`` occupies rows ``[offs[i], offs[i+1])``. Returns
|
||||
the same result as ``pandas.Series.rank(method='average')`` applied per
|
||||
group, but in one pass (``np.lexsort`` is the only non-linear step).
|
||||
"""
|
||||
n = len(values)
|
||||
order = np.lexsort((values, gid))
|
||||
ord_rank = np.empty(n, dtype=np.float64)
|
||||
ord_rank[order] = np.arange(n, dtype=np.float64) - offs[gid[order]] + 1.0
|
||||
sg = gid[order]
|
||||
sv = values[order]
|
||||
newblock = np.empty(n, dtype=bool)
|
||||
newblock[0] = True
|
||||
newblock[1:] = (sg[1:] != sg[:-1]) | (sv[1:] != sv[:-1])
|
||||
blockid = np.cumsum(newblock) - 1
|
||||
block_mean = np.bincount(blockid, weights=ord_rank[order]) / np.bincount(blockid)
|
||||
out = np.empty(n)
|
||||
out[order] = block_mean[blockid]
|
||||
return out
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _per_day_spearman(preds: np.ndarray, labels: np.ndarray, group: np.ndarray) -> float:
|
||||
"""Mean per-day Spearman rank correlation of preds vs labels.
|
||||
|
||||
``group`` holds the number of rows of each trading day (query group), in
|
||||
order. Days with <3 valid rows or a constant pred/label are skipped.
|
||||
|
||||
Vectorized: per-day Spearman == Pearson of the per-day rank transforms,
|
||||
and the Pearson moments (``sum``, ``sum`` of products/squares) aggregate
|
||||
over each day with ``np.bincount``. Runs ~10x faster than the per-day
|
||||
``pd.Series.rank()`` loop that preceded it — this feval is invoked on the
|
||||
train and valid panels every boosting round, per seed.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
if group is None or len(group) == 0:
|
||||
return 0.0
|
||||
offs = np.concatenate([[0], np.cumsum(group.astype(int))])
|
||||
gid = np.repeat(np.arange(len(group)), group.astype(int))
|
||||
rp = _group_averaged_rank(preds, gid, offs)
|
||||
rl = _group_averaged_rank(labels, gid, offs)
|
||||
n_g = group.astype(float)
|
||||
s_p = np.bincount(gid, weights=rp)
|
||||
s_l = np.bincount(gid, weights=rl)
|
||||
s_pl = np.bincount(gid, weights=rp * rl)
|
||||
s_pp = np.bincount(gid, weights=rp * rp)
|
||||
s_ll = np.bincount(gid, weights=rl * rl)
|
||||
cov = n_g * s_pl - s_p * s_l
|
||||
var_p = n_g * s_pp - s_p ** 2
|
||||
var_l = n_g * s_ll - s_l ** 2
|
||||
denom = np.sqrt(var_p * var_l)
|
||||
valid = (n_g >= 3) & (denom > 0)
|
||||
corr = np.where(valid, cov / np.where(denom == 0, 1, denom), 0.0)
|
||||
return float(corr[valid].mean()) if valid.any() else 0.0
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def rankic_feval(preds, dataset):
|
||||
"""LightGBM feval: mean RankIC (higher is better in lgb convention)."""
|
||||
labels = dataset.get_label()
|
||||
group = dataset.get_group()
|
||||
ric = _per_day_spearman(preds, labels, group)
|
||||
return "rankic", ric, True # (name, value, higher_is_better)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
class RankICLGBModel(LGBModel):
|
||||
"""LGBModel that early-stops on per-day RankIC via a custom feval."""
|
||||
|
||||
def __init__(self, rank_eval: bool = True, **kwargs):
|
||||
super().__init__(**kwargs)
|
||||
self.rank_eval = rank_eval
|
||||
|
||||
def _prepare_data(self, dataset: DatasetH, reweighter=None) -> List[Tuple[lgb.Dataset, str]]:
|
||||
ds_l = []
|
||||
assert "train" in dataset.segments
|
||||
for key in ["train", "valid"]:
|
||||
if key in dataset.segments:
|
||||
df = dataset.prepare(key, col_set=["feature", "label"], data_key=DataHandlerLP.DK_L)
|
||||
if df.empty:
|
||||
raise ValueError("Empty data from dataset, please check your dataset config.")
|
||||
x, y = df["feature"], df["label"]
|
||||
if y.values.ndim == 2 and y.values.shape[1] == 1:
|
||||
y = np.squeeze(y.values)
|
||||
else:
|
||||
raise ValueError("LightGBM doesn't support multi-label training")
|
||||
|
||||
if reweighter is None:
|
||||
w = None
|
||||
elif hasattr(reweighter, "reweight"):
|
||||
w = reweighter.reweight(df)
|
||||
else:
|
||||
raise ValueError("Unsupported reweighter type.")
|
||||
|
||||
# per-day query groups: each trading day is one group
|
||||
if self.rank_eval and isinstance(df.index, pd.MultiIndex) and "datetime" in df.index.names:
|
||||
group = df.groupby(level="datetime").size().to_numpy(dtype=np.int32)
|
||||
else:
|
||||
group = None
|
||||
|
||||
d = lgb.Dataset(x.values, label=y, weight=w, group=group, free_raw_data=False)
|
||||
ds_l.append((d, key))
|
||||
return ds_l
|
||||
|
||||
def _train_from_datasets(
|
||||
self,
|
||||
ds_l: List[Tuple[lgb.Dataset, str]],
|
||||
num_boost_round: Optional[int] = None,
|
||||
early_stopping_rounds: Optional[int] = None,
|
||||
verbose_eval: int = 20,
|
||||
evals_result=None,
|
||||
**kwargs,
|
||||
) -> Tuple[lgb.Booster, dict, List[str]]:
|
||||
"""Train a Booster from already-prepared ``lgb.Dataset`` objects.
|
||||
|
||||
Pure training — no ``R.log_metrics`` — so it can be called from worker
|
||||
threads (qlib's ``R`` recorder is not thread-safe; the caller decides
|
||||
when/where to log). Returns ``(booster, evals_result, segment_names)``.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
if evals_result is None:
|
||||
evals_result = {}
|
||||
ds, names = list(zip(*ds_l))
|
||||
|
||||
callbacks = [
|
||||
lgb.early_stopping(
|
||||
self.early_stopping_rounds if early_stopping_rounds is None else early_stopping_rounds
|
||||
),
|
||||
lgb.log_evaluation(period=verbose_eval),
|
||||
lgb.record_evaluation(evals_result),
|
||||
]
|
||||
if self.rank_eval:
|
||||
# early-stopping must be driven ONLY by the RankIC feval, not l2.
|
||||
# metric='None' suppresses the default l2 metric; first_metric_only
|
||||
# makes early_stopping track the single remaining (rankic) metric.
|
||||
self.params["metric"] = "None"
|
||||
self.params["first_metric_only"] = True
|
||||
feval = rankic_feval
|
||||
else:
|
||||
self.params.pop("metric", None)
|
||||
self.params.pop("first_metric_only", None)
|
||||
feval = None
|
||||
|
||||
booster = lgb.train(
|
||||
self.params,
|
||||
ds[0],
|
||||
num_boost_round=self.num_boost_round if num_boost_round is None else num_boost_round,
|
||||
valid_sets=ds,
|
||||
valid_names=names,
|
||||
feval=feval,
|
||||
callbacks=callbacks,
|
||||
**kwargs,
|
||||
)
|
||||
return booster, evals_result, list(names)
|
||||
|
||||
def _log_evals(self, evals_result, names: List[str], prefix: str = "") -> None:
|
||||
"""Log recorded evaluation curves to qlib's active recorder."""
|
||||
for k in names:
|
||||
for key, val in evals_result.get(k, {}).items():
|
||||
name = f"{prefix}{key}.{k}"
|
||||
for epoch, m in enumerate(val):
|
||||
R.log_metrics(**{name.replace("@", "_"): m}, step=epoch)
|
||||
|
||||
def fit(
|
||||
self,
|
||||
dataset: DatasetH,
|
||||
num_boost_round: Optional[int] = None,
|
||||
early_stopping_rounds: Optional[int] = None,
|
||||
verbose_eval: int = 20,
|
||||
evals_result=None,
|
||||
reweighter=None,
|
||||
**kwargs,
|
||||
):
|
||||
if evals_result is None:
|
||||
evals_result = {}
|
||||
ds_l = self._prepare_data(dataset, reweighter)
|
||||
self.model, evals_result, names = self._train_from_datasets(
|
||||
ds_l,
|
||||
num_boost_round=num_boost_round,
|
||||
early_stopping_rounds=early_stopping_rounds,
|
||||
verbose_eval=verbose_eval,
|
||||
evals_result=evals_result,
|
||||
**kwargs,
|
||||
)
|
||||
self._log_evals(evals_result, names)
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
|
||||
from .ic_gate import ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy # noqa: F401
|
||||
from .optimal_stop import OptimalStopControl # noqa: F401
|
||||
from .regime_gate import RegimeGateTopkDropoutStrategy # noqa: F401
|
||||
from .weekly_rebalance import WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy # noqa: F401
|
||||
|
||||
__all__ = [
|
||||
"ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy",
|
||||
"OptimalStopControl",
|
||||
"RegimeGateTopkDropoutStrategy",
|
||||
"WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy",
|
||||
]
|
||||
Binary file not shown.
Binary file not shown.
@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
|
||||
"""Realized-IC circuit breaker TopkDropout strategy.
|
||||
|
||||
Subclass of ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy`` that
|
||||
holds the book (issues NO orders) while the streaming realized RankIC of the
|
||||
deployed signal is below threshold — i.e. the model's cross-sectional
|
||||
predictions are no longer earning against realized forward returns. When the
|
||||
gate is open it behaves exactly like the reference TopkDropoutStrategy.
|
||||
|
||||
The gate is evaluated per trade step on the trailing mean realized RankIC of
|
||||
the signal over the last ``ic_window`` trading days whose label is fully
|
||||
realized as of the decision date (no lookahead — a 5d fwd label ``close[t+6]/
|
||||
close[t+1]-1`` is only known at ``t+6``).
|
||||
|
||||
Two wiring modes:
|
||||
|
||||
* ``ic_gate``: a precomputed ``pd.Series`` indexed by datetime of booleans
|
||||
(True = gate open / trade allowed). Computed once by the caller (e.g.
|
||||
``rd_backtest``) and looked up per step. Missing dates default to open.
|
||||
* realized-IC self-computation: when ``ic_min_rankic`` is given but no
|
||||
``ic_gate``, the strategy computes the per-date realized RankIC itself from
|
||||
``self.signal`` (the pred scores) and the lake 1d bars via
|
||||
``tac_qlib.risk_limits.realized_rankic_series``, then applies the same
|
||||
trailing-window comparison. Works when instantiated from a workflow YAML
|
||||
PortAnaRecord config (``lake_root`` / ``market`` must be provided).
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||
|
||||
import pandas as pd
|
||||
|
||||
from qlib.backtest.decision import TradeDecisionWO
|
||||
from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
|
||||
|
||||
from tac_qlib.risk_limits import ic_circuit_breaker, realized_rankic_series
|
||||
|
||||
__all__ = ["ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy"]
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
class ICGateTopkDropoutStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
|
||||
"""TopkDropout with a streaming realized-IC circuit breaker.
|
||||
|
||||
Parameters
|
||||
----------
|
||||
topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
|
||||
forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
|
||||
ic_min_rankic : float — pause new trading while trailing realized RankIC is
|
||||
below this threshold (0 disables the gate).
|
||||
ic_window : int — trailing window for the realized RankIC mean (default 22).
|
||||
ic_label_horizon : int — label horizon in trading days (default 6).
|
||||
ic_min_obs : int — min realized labels before the gate arms (default 10).
|
||||
ic_gate : pd.Series, optional — precomputed per-date gate (bool indexed by
|
||||
datetime). When provided, it overrides self-computation.
|
||||
lake_root, market : str — lake location for self-computed realized IC.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
def __init__(
|
||||
self,
|
||||
*,
|
||||
topk,
|
||||
n_drop,
|
||||
ic_min_rankic: float = 0.0,
|
||||
ic_window: int = 22,
|
||||
ic_label_horizon: int = 6,
|
||||
ic_min_obs: int = 10,
|
||||
ic_gate=None,
|
||||
lake_root: str = "",
|
||||
market: str = "US",
|
||||
**kwargs,
|
||||
):
|
||||
super().__init__(topk=topk, n_drop=n_drop, **kwargs)
|
||||
self.ic_min_rankic = float(ic_min_rankic or 0.0)
|
||||
self.ic_window = int(ic_window or 22)
|
||||
self.ic_label_horizon = int(ic_label_horizon or 6)
|
||||
self.ic_min_obs = int(ic_min_obs or 10)
|
||||
self._ic_gate = ic_gate
|
||||
self._realized_ic = None
|
||||
self.lake_root = lake_root or ""
|
||||
self.market = market or "US"
|
||||
|
||||
def _load_realized_ic(self):
|
||||
if self._realized_ic is None:
|
||||
pred_start_time, pred_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(
|
||||
self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step(), shift=-self.ic_label_horizon
|
||||
)
|
||||
pred = self.signal.get_signal(start_time=pred_start_time, end_time=pred_end_time)
|
||||
if isinstance(pred, pd.DataFrame):
|
||||
pred = pred.iloc[:, 0]
|
||||
self._realized_ic = realized_rankic_series(
|
||||
pred, self.lake_root, self.market, label_horizon=self.ic_label_horizon
|
||||
)
|
||||
return self._realized_ic
|
||||
|
||||
def _gate_open(self, trade_start_time) -> bool:
|
||||
ts = pd.Timestamp(trade_start_time)
|
||||
if self._ic_gate is not None:
|
||||
# precomputed gate series: look up the latest known decision date <= ts
|
||||
known = self._ic_gate[self._ic_gate.index <= ts]
|
||||
if len(known):
|
||||
return bool(known.iloc[-1])
|
||||
return True
|
||||
if self.ic_min_rankic <= 0:
|
||||
return True
|
||||
realized = self._load_realized_ic()
|
||||
limits = {
|
||||
"ic_min_rankic": self.ic_min_rankic,
|
||||
"ic_window": self.ic_window,
|
||||
"ic_min_obs": self.ic_min_obs,
|
||||
}
|
||||
tripped, _reason, _trail = ic_circuit_breaker(realized, ts, limits)
|
||||
return not tripped
|
||||
|
||||
def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
|
||||
trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
|
||||
trade_start_time, _ = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
|
||||
if not self._gate_open(trade_start_time):
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
|
||||
return super().generate_trade_decision(execute_result)
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,217 @@
|
||||
"""Optimal-stopping / stochastic-control strategy for cross-sectional signals.
|
||||
|
||||
Entry is a control policy: a symbol opens a position only when its cross-sectional
|
||||
signal percentile is at or above ``entry_pct`` (i.e. it is one of the top-ranked
|
||||
names) and the portfolio has fewer than ``topk`` open positions.
|
||||
|
||||
Exit is an optimal-stopping rule: a held position is stopped (closed) when its
|
||||
signal percentile falls below ``exit_pct`` (the continuation value of holding is
|
||||
no longer worth the risk), OR after ``max_hold_days`` (time stop / finite
|
||||
horizon), OR when the position P&L breaches ``sl`` (loss control) and the
|
||||
position has been held at least ``min_hold_days``.
|
||||
|
||||
Sizing is fixed ``notional`` per position (equal-weight control), unlike the
|
||||
TopkDropout cash-allocation heuristic.
|
||||
|
||||
Wired into qrun workflows like any ``BaseStrategy`` (see ``PortAnaRecord``
|
||||
config). Mirrors the API usage of qlib's ``TopkDropoutStrategy``: ``Order``/
|
||||
``OrderDir`` from ``qlib.backtest.decision``, ``trade_calendar`` /
|
||||
``trade_exchange`` / ``trade_position`` injected by the backtest executor.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||
|
||||
from typing import List
|
||||
|
||||
import pandas as pd
|
||||
|
||||
from qlib.backtest import Order
|
||||
from qlib.backtest.decision import OrderDir, TradeDecisionWO
|
||||
from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import BaseSignalStrategy
|
||||
|
||||
__all__ = ["OptimalStopControl"]
|
||||
|
||||
DEFAULT_NOTIONAL = 20_000.0
|
||||
DEFAULT_ENTRY_PCT = 0.80
|
||||
DEFAULT_EXIT_PCT = 0.50
|
||||
DEFAULT_MAX_HOLD_DAYS = 10
|
||||
DEFAULT_MIN_HOLD_DAYS = 2
|
||||
DEFAULT_SL = -0.06
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
class OptimalStopControl(BaseSignalStrategy):
|
||||
"""Optimal-stopping long-only strategy over a cross-sectional signal.
|
||||
|
||||
Parameters
|
||||
----------
|
||||
topk : max number of concurrent positions.
|
||||
entry_pct : min cross-sectional score percentile required to OPEN (0..1).
|
||||
exit_pct : held positions are stopped when score percentile < exit_pct.
|
||||
max_hold_days : hard time stop (finite-horizon close).
|
||||
min_hold_days : minimum holding days before stop-loss is evaluated.
|
||||
notional : $ per position (equal-weight control).
|
||||
sl : stop-loss threshold as fraction of entry price (<= 0), disabled if 0.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
def __init__(
|
||||
self,
|
||||
*,
|
||||
signal=None,
|
||||
topk: int = 10,
|
||||
entry_pct: float = DEFAULT_ENTRY_PCT,
|
||||
exit_pct: float = DEFAULT_EXIT_PCT,
|
||||
max_hold_days: int = DEFAULT_MAX_HOLD_DAYS,
|
||||
min_hold_days: int = DEFAULT_MIN_HOLD_DAYS,
|
||||
notional: float = DEFAULT_NOTIONAL,
|
||||
sl: float = DEFAULT_SL,
|
||||
risk_degree: float = 0.95,
|
||||
trade_exchange=None,
|
||||
level_infra=None,
|
||||
common_infra=None,
|
||||
**kwargs,
|
||||
):
|
||||
super().__init__(
|
||||
signal=signal,
|
||||
trade_exchange=trade_exchange,
|
||||
level_infra=level_infra,
|
||||
common_infra=common_infra,
|
||||
**kwargs,
|
||||
)
|
||||
self.topk = topk
|
||||
self.entry_pct = entry_pct
|
||||
self.exit_pct = exit_pct
|
||||
self.max_hold_days = max_hold_days
|
||||
self.min_hold_days = min_hold_days
|
||||
self.notional = notional
|
||||
self.sl = sl
|
||||
|
||||
# ------------------------------------------------------------------ utils
|
||||
@staticmethod
|
||||
def _pct_rank(score: pd.Series) -> pd.Series:
|
||||
return score.rank(pct=True)
|
||||
|
||||
def _entry_price(self, pos) -> float:
|
||||
# Position stores avg entry price under key "price" (see Position.position)
|
||||
price = pos.position.get("price")
|
||||
if price is None:
|
||||
price = pos.get_stock_amount("price")
|
||||
return float(price)
|
||||
|
||||
def _pnl_pct(self, pos, mark: float) -> float:
|
||||
entry = self._entry_price(pos)
|
||||
if not entry or entry != entry:
|
||||
return 0.0
|
||||
return mark / entry - 1.0
|
||||
|
||||
def _is_tradable(self, code, start, end, direction) -> bool:
|
||||
try:
|
||||
return self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
|
||||
stock_id=code, start_time=start, end_time=end, direction=direction
|
||||
)
|
||||
except TypeError: # some exchanges take no direction kwarg
|
||||
return self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(stock_id=code, start_time=start, end_time=end)
|
||||
|
||||
# ------------------------------------------------------------ decision
|
||||
def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
|
||||
trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
|
||||
trade_start, trade_end = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
|
||||
pred_start, pred_end = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step, shift=1)
|
||||
pred_score = self.signal.get_signal(start_time=pred_start, end_time=pred_end)
|
||||
if isinstance(pred_score, pd.DataFrame):
|
||||
pred_score = pred_score.iloc[:, 0]
|
||||
if pred_score is None or len(pred_score) == 0:
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
|
||||
|
||||
pct = self._pct_rank(pred_score)
|
||||
time_per_step = self.trade_calendar.get_freq()
|
||||
current_temp = __import__("copy").deepcopy(self.trade_position)
|
||||
|
||||
holdings = {}
|
||||
for code in current_temp.get_stock_list():
|
||||
if abs(current_temp.get_stock_amount(code)) > 1e-6:
|
||||
holdings[code] = current_temp
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- optimal stopping: close held positions -----------------------
|
||||
sell_orders: List[Order] = []
|
||||
closed_today = set()
|
||||
kept = {}
|
||||
for code, pos in holdings.items():
|
||||
held = current_temp.get_stock_count(code, bar=time_per_step)
|
||||
mark = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
|
||||
stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start, end_time=trade_end, direction=Order.SELL
|
||||
)
|
||||
if mark is None or mark != mark:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
rank = pct.get(code, 0.0)
|
||||
stop_pnl = held >= self.min_hold_days and self.sl < 0 and self._pnl_pct(pos, mark) <= self.sl
|
||||
if held >= self.max_hold_days or rank < self.exit_pct or stop_pnl:
|
||||
amt = abs(current_temp.get_stock_amount(code))
|
||||
o = Order(stock_id=code, amount=amt, start_time=trade_start,
|
||||
end_time=trade_end, direction=Order.SELL)
|
||||
if self.trade_exchange.check_order(o):
|
||||
sell_orders.append(o)
|
||||
self.trade_exchange.deal_order(o, position=current_temp)
|
||||
closed_today.add(code)
|
||||
else:
|
||||
kept[code] = mark
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- equal-weight control: target notional per name -----------------
|
||||
# candidate opens: top-ranked names whose signal pct >= entry_pct
|
||||
rank_desc = pred_score.sort_values(ascending=False)
|
||||
held_codes = set(kept)
|
||||
opens = []
|
||||
for sym in rank_desc.index:
|
||||
if len(opens) >= self.topk:
|
||||
break
|
||||
if sym in held_codes:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
if pct.get(sym, 0.0) < self.entry_pct:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
if not self._is_tradable(sym, trade_start, trade_end, OrderDir.BUY):
|
||||
continue
|
||||
opens.append(sym)
|
||||
|
||||
targets = held_codes | set(opens)
|
||||
if not targets:
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO(sell_orders, self)
|
||||
|
||||
# total value (cash + marked positions) -> per-target notional
|
||||
total_value = current_temp.get_cash()
|
||||
for code, mark in kept.items():
|
||||
total_value += abs(current_temp.get_stock_amount(code)) * mark
|
||||
|
||||
target_notional = total_value * self.risk_degree / max(1, len(targets))
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- rebalance kept positions toward target weight ------------------
|
||||
buy_orders: List[Order] = []
|
||||
for code, mark in kept.items():
|
||||
cur = abs(current_temp.get_stock_amount(code)) * mark
|
||||
diff_notional = target_notional - cur
|
||||
if abs(diff_notional) / target_notional < 0.02:
|
||||
continue # skip tiny rebalances
|
||||
amount_delta = diff_notional / mark
|
||||
direction = Order.BUY if amount_delta > 0 else Order.SELL
|
||||
o = Order(stock_id=code, amount=abs(amount_delta), start_time=trade_start,
|
||||
end_time=trade_end, direction=direction)
|
||||
if self.trade_exchange.check_order(o):
|
||||
(buy_orders if direction == Order.BUY else sell_orders).append(o)
|
||||
self.trade_exchange.deal_order(o, position=current_temp)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- open new positions at target weight ----------------------------
|
||||
for sym in opens:
|
||||
px = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
|
||||
stock_id=sym, start_time=trade_start, end_time=trade_end, direction=OrderDir.BUY
|
||||
)
|
||||
if px is None or px != px or px <= 0:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
amount = target_notional / px
|
||||
factor = self.trade_exchange.get_factor(
|
||||
stock_id=sym, start_time=trade_start, end_time=trade_end
|
||||
)
|
||||
amount = self.trade_exchange.round_amount_by_trade_unit(amount, factor)
|
||||
o = Order(stock_id=sym, amount=amount, start_time=trade_start,
|
||||
end_time=trade_end, direction=Order.BUY)
|
||||
if self.trade_exchange.check_order(o):
|
||||
buy_orders.append(o)
|
||||
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO(sell_orders + buy_orders, self)
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,215 @@
|
||||
"""Regime-gate TopkDropout strategy.
|
||||
|
||||
Subclass of ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy`` that
|
||||
holds the book (issues NO orders) while a regime detector says the market is in
|
||||
an unfavorable state. When the gate is open it behaves exactly like the
|
||||
reference TopkDropoutStrategy.
|
||||
|
||||
Three detector types are supported (all causal — no lookahead):
|
||||
|
||||
* ``dispersion``: cross-sectional standard deviation of 22-day rolling returns
|
||||
across the universe. Gate closes when CS dispersion < threshold (low
|
||||
dispersion means the spread between winners and losers is too narrow for
|
||||
TopkDropout to exploit).
|
||||
* ``vol``: cross-sectional mean of 22-day rolling realized volatility. Gate
|
||||
closes when avg vol is outside a band ``[vol_low, vol_high]`` (strategy
|
||||
needs moderate vol — too calm or too turbulent both hurt).
|
||||
* ``hmm``: pre-computed HMM posterior for regime 1 (``sp_hmm_p_regime1``).
|
||||
Gate closes when posterior < threshold (model is not confident the calm
|
||||
regime is active).
|
||||
|
||||
The gate is provided as a precomputed ``pd.Series`` of booleans indexed by
|
||||
datetime (True = trade allowed). The companion ``compute_regime_gate``
|
||||
function builds this series from lake bars; call it once before backtesting
|
||||
and pass the result as the ``regime_gate`` parameter.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||
|
||||
import pandas as pd
|
||||
|
||||
from qlib.backtest.decision import TradeDecisionWO
|
||||
from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
|
||||
|
||||
__all__ = ["RegimeGateTopkDropoutStrategy", "compute_regime_gate"]
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
class RegimeGateTopkDropoutStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
|
||||
"""TopkDropout with a regime-gate circuit breaker.
|
||||
|
||||
Parameters
|
||||
----------
|
||||
topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
|
||||
forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
|
||||
regime_gate : pd.Series — precomputed per-date gate (bool indexed by
|
||||
datetime). True = trade allowed, False = no orders. Missing dates
|
||||
default to open (trade allowed).
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
def __init__(self, *, regime_gate=None, **kwargs):
|
||||
super().__init__(**kwargs)
|
||||
self._regime_gate = regime_gate
|
||||
|
||||
def _gate_open(self, trade_start_time) -> bool:
|
||||
if self._regime_gate is None:
|
||||
return True
|
||||
ts = pd.Timestamp(trade_start_time)
|
||||
known = self._regime_gate[self._regime_gate.index <= ts]
|
||||
if len(known):
|
||||
return bool(known.iloc[-1])
|
||||
return True # default open if no history yet
|
||||
|
||||
def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
|
||||
trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
|
||||
trade_start_time, _ = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
|
||||
if not self._gate_open(trade_start_time):
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
|
||||
return super().generate_trade_decision(execute_result)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
# Precomputation helper
|
||||
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
def compute_regime_gate(
|
||||
detector: str,
|
||||
threshold: float = 0.0,
|
||||
*,
|
||||
lake_root: str = "",
|
||||
market: str = "US",
|
||||
start: str = "2015-01-03",
|
||||
end: str = "2026-08-19",
|
||||
vol_low: float = 0.0,
|
||||
vol_high: float = 999.0,
|
||||
hmm_field: str = "sp_hmm_p_regime1",
|
||||
) -> pd.Series:
|
||||
"""Build a per-date regime gate series from lake bars.
|
||||
|
||||
Parameters
|
||||
----------
|
||||
detector : str — ``"dispersion"``, ``"vol"``, or ``"hmm"``.
|
||||
threshold : float — for ``dispersion``: min CS dispersion to allow trading.
|
||||
For ``hmm``: min HMM posterior to allow trading.
|
||||
Ignored for ``vol`` (uses ``vol_low``/``vol_high`` band instead).
|
||||
lake_root, market : str — lake location.
|
||||
start, end : str — date window.
|
||||
vol_low, vol_high : float — annualized vol band for the ``vol`` detector.
|
||||
hmm_field : str — HMM feature column name for the ``hmm`` detector.
|
||||
|
||||
Returns
|
||||
-------
|
||||
pd.Series — bool, indexed by datetime. True = trade allowed.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
from tac_qlib.data.config import LakeConfig, resolve_lake_root
|
||||
|
||||
cfg = LakeConfig(resolve_lake_root(lake_root or None), market)
|
||||
symbols = _universe_symbols(cfg)
|
||||
close_df, vol_df = _load_daily_bars(symbols, cfg, start, end)
|
||||
if close_df.empty:
|
||||
return pd.Series(dtype=bool)
|
||||
|
||||
if detector == "dispersion":
|
||||
return _dispersion_gate(close_df, threshold)
|
||||
elif detector == "vol":
|
||||
return _vol_gate(close_df, vol_low, vol_high)
|
||||
elif detector == "hmm":
|
||||
return _hmm_gate(cfg, symbols, threshold, start, end, hmm_field)
|
||||
else:
|
||||
raise ValueError(f"Unknown detector: {detector!r}")
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _universe_symbols(cfg) -> list:
|
||||
"""Read symbols from the lake symbols.parquet."""
|
||||
import pathlib
|
||||
|
||||
sp = cfg.lake_root / "symbols.parquet"
|
||||
if sp.exists():
|
||||
df = pd.read_parquet(sp)
|
||||
col = "symbol" if "symbol" in df.columns else df.columns[0]
|
||||
return sorted(df[col].astype(str).str.upper().tolist())
|
||||
return []
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _load_daily_bars(symbols, cfg, start, end):
|
||||
"""Load daily close prices for all symbols into a wide DataFrame."""
|
||||
closes = {}
|
||||
vols = {}
|
||||
for sym in symbols:
|
||||
p = cfg.bar_path("1d", sym)
|
||||
if not p.exists():
|
||||
continue
|
||||
try:
|
||||
df = pd.read_parquet(p)
|
||||
except Exception:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
if not len(df):
|
||||
continue
|
||||
tcol = df["t"] if "t" in df.columns else df["date"]
|
||||
ts = pd.to_datetime(tcol)
|
||||
df = df.assign(_t=ts).set_index("_t").sort_index()
|
||||
df = df.loc[start:end]
|
||||
if len(df) < 22:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
closes[sym] = df["c"]
|
||||
if "v" in df.columns:
|
||||
vols[sym] = df["v"]
|
||||
close_df = pd.DataFrame(closes)
|
||||
vol_df = pd.DataFrame(vols) if vols else None
|
||||
return close_df, vol_df
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _dispersion_gate(close_df, threshold):
|
||||
"""Cross-sectional dispersion of 22-day rolling returns."""
|
||||
if close_df.empty or close_df.shape[1] < 2:
|
||||
return pd.Series(dtype=bool)
|
||||
ret = close_df.pct_change(22)
|
||||
cs_disp = ret.std(axis=1)
|
||||
gate = cs_disp >= threshold
|
||||
gate.iloc[:22] = True # warmup: allow trading
|
||||
return gate
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _vol_gate(close_df, vol_low, vol_high):
|
||||
"""Cross-sectional mean of 22-day rolling realized vol."""
|
||||
if close_df.empty or close_df.shape[1] < 2:
|
||||
return pd.Series(dtype=bool)
|
||||
import numpy as np
|
||||
log_ret = np.log(close_df / close_df.shift(1))
|
||||
rv22 = log_ret.rolling(22).std() * (252 ** 0.5)
|
||||
cs_mean_vol = rv22.mean(axis=1)
|
||||
gate = (cs_mean_vol >= vol_low) & (cs_mean_vol <= vol_high)
|
||||
gate.iloc[:22] = True # warmup
|
||||
return gate
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def _hmm_gate(cfg, symbols, threshold, start, end, hmm_field):
|
||||
"""HMM regime posterior gate from persisted SP features."""
|
||||
feat_root = cfg.lake_root / "features"
|
||||
all_posteriors = {}
|
||||
for sym in symbols:
|
||||
# check both ta and sp family paths
|
||||
for family in ("sp", "ta"):
|
||||
p = feat_root / f"market=US" / f"timeframe=1d" / f"family={family}" / f"symbol={sym}.parquet"
|
||||
if not p.exists():
|
||||
continue
|
||||
try:
|
||||
df = pd.read_parquet(p)
|
||||
except Exception:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
if hmm_field not in df.columns:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
tcol = df["t"] if "t" in df.columns else df["date"]
|
||||
ts = pd.to_datetime(tcol)
|
||||
s = pd.Series(df[hmm_field].values, index=ts, name=sym)
|
||||
s = s.loc[start:end].dropna()
|
||||
if len(s) > 0:
|
||||
all_posteriors[sym] = s
|
||||
break
|
||||
if not all_posteriors:
|
||||
# no HMM features found — default open
|
||||
idx = pd.date_range(start, end, freq="B")
|
||||
return pd.Series(True, index=idx)
|
||||
post_df = pd.DataFrame(all_posteriors)
|
||||
cs_mean = post_df.mean(axis=1)
|
||||
gate = cs_mean >= threshold
|
||||
return gate
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,202 @@
|
||||
"""Weekly-rebalance TopkDropout strategy.
|
||||
|
||||
Turnover-reduction variant of ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy``:
|
||||
the topk/n_drop selection and sizing are identical to the reference, but the
|
||||
target book is recomputed only on the first trading day of each ISO week; on the
|
||||
other days the strategy issues NO orders (holds the book untouched).
|
||||
|
||||
The weekly cadence is derived from the qlib trade calendar: a rebalance happens
|
||||
when the current trade step's date belongs to a different ISO ``(year, week)``
|
||||
than the previous trade step. ``hold_band_pct`` (default 0) optionally skips
|
||||
tiny rebalances: when a name's existing position differs from the new target by
|
||||
less than this fraction, no order is generated for it.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||
|
||||
from typing import List
|
||||
|
||||
import numpy as np
|
||||
import pandas as pd
|
||||
|
||||
from qlib.backtest import Order
|
||||
from qlib.backtest.decision import OrderDir, TradeDecisionWO
|
||||
from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
|
||||
|
||||
__all__ = ["WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy"]
|
||||
|
||||
DEFAULT_HOLD_BAND_PCT = 0.0
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
class WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
|
||||
"""TopkDropout rebalanced once per ISO week; holds otherwise.
|
||||
|
||||
Parameters
|
||||
----------
|
||||
topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
|
||||
forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
|
||||
hold_band_pct : skip order for a name whose deviation from target weight is
|
||||
below this fraction of the target (no-trade buffer band).
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
def __init__(self, *, topk, n_drop, hold_band_pct: float = DEFAULT_HOLD_BAND_PCT, **kwargs):
|
||||
super().__init__(topk=topk, n_drop=n_drop, **kwargs)
|
||||
self.hold_band_pct = hold_band_pct
|
||||
|
||||
@staticmethod
|
||||
def _iso_week(ts) -> tuple:
|
||||
return (ts.year, ts.week)
|
||||
|
||||
def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
|
||||
import copy
|
||||
|
||||
trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
|
||||
trade_start_time, trade_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
|
||||
|
||||
cur_week = self._iso_week(trade_start_time)
|
||||
prev_week = getattr(self, "_last_week", None)
|
||||
self._last_week = cur_week
|
||||
|
||||
if prev_week is not None and prev_week == cur_week:
|
||||
# not the first trading day of this ISO week -> hold
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
|
||||
|
||||
pred_start_time, pred_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step, shift=1)
|
||||
pred_score = self.signal.get_signal(start_time=pred_start_time, end_time=pred_end_time)
|
||||
if isinstance(pred_score, pd.DataFrame):
|
||||
pred_score = pred_score.iloc[:, 0]
|
||||
if pred_score is None:
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
|
||||
|
||||
if self.only_tradable:
|
||||
|
||||
def get_first_n(li, n, reverse=False):
|
||||
cur_n = 0
|
||||
res = []
|
||||
for si in reversed(li) if reverse else li:
|
||||
if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
|
||||
stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
|
||||
):
|
||||
res.append(si)
|
||||
cur_n += 1
|
||||
if cur_n >= n:
|
||||
break
|
||||
return res[::-1] if reverse else res
|
||||
|
||||
def get_last_n(li, n):
|
||||
return get_first_n(li, n, reverse=True)
|
||||
|
||||
def filter_stock(li):
|
||||
return [
|
||||
si
|
||||
for si in li
|
||||
if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
|
||||
stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
|
||||
)
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
else:
|
||||
|
||||
def get_first_n(li, n):
|
||||
return list(li)[:n]
|
||||
|
||||
def get_last_n(li, n):
|
||||
return list(li)[-n:]
|
||||
|
||||
def filter_stock(li):
|
||||
return li
|
||||
|
||||
current_temp: "object" = copy.deepcopy(self.trade_position)
|
||||
sell_order_list: List[Order] = []
|
||||
buy_order_list: List[Order] = []
|
||||
cash = current_temp.get_cash()
|
||||
current_stock_list = current_temp.get_stock_list()
|
||||
last = pred_score.reindex(current_stock_list).sort_values(ascending=False).index
|
||||
|
||||
if self.method_buy == "top":
|
||||
today = get_first_n(
|
||||
pred_score[~pred_score.index.isin(last)].sort_values(ascending=False).index,
|
||||
self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last),
|
||||
)
|
||||
elif self.method_buy == "random":
|
||||
topk_candi = get_first_n(pred_score.sort_values(ascending=False).index, self.topk)
|
||||
candi = list(filter(lambda x: x not in last, topk_candi))
|
||||
n = self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last)
|
||||
try:
|
||||
today = np.random.choice(candi, n, replace=False)
|
||||
except ValueError:
|
||||
today = candi
|
||||
else:
|
||||
raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
|
||||
|
||||
comb = pred_score.reindex(last.union(pd.Index(today))).sort_values(ascending=False).index
|
||||
|
||||
if self.method_sell == "bottom":
|
||||
sell = last[last.isin(get_last_n(comb, self.n_drop))]
|
||||
elif self.method_sell == "random":
|
||||
candi = filter_stock(last)
|
||||
try:
|
||||
sell = pd.Index(np.random.choice(candi, self.n_drop, replace=False) if len(last) else [])
|
||||
except ValueError:
|
||||
sell = candi
|
||||
else:
|
||||
raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
|
||||
|
||||
buy = today[: len(sell) + self.topk - len(last)]
|
||||
for code in current_stock_list:
|
||||
if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
|
||||
stock_id=code,
|
||||
start_time=trade_start_time,
|
||||
end_time=trade_end_time,
|
||||
direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.SELL,
|
||||
):
|
||||
continue
|
||||
if code in sell:
|
||||
time_per_step = self.trade_calendar.get_freq()
|
||||
if current_temp.get_stock_count(code, bar=time_per_step) < self.hold_thresh:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
sell_amount = current_temp.get_stock_amount(code=code)
|
||||
sell_order = Order(
|
||||
stock_id=code,
|
||||
amount=sell_amount,
|
||||
start_time=trade_start_time,
|
||||
end_time=trade_end_time,
|
||||
direction=Order.SELL,
|
||||
)
|
||||
if self.trade_exchange.check_order(sell_order):
|
||||
sell_order_list.append(sell_order)
|
||||
trade_val, trade_cost, trade_price = self.trade_exchange.deal_order(
|
||||
sell_order, position=current_temp
|
||||
)
|
||||
cash += trade_val - trade_cost
|
||||
|
||||
if len(buy) == 0:
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list, self)
|
||||
|
||||
value = cash * self.risk_degree / len(buy)
|
||||
for code in buy:
|
||||
if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
|
||||
stock_id=code,
|
||||
start_time=trade_start_time,
|
||||
end_time=trade_end_time,
|
||||
direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.BUY,
|
||||
):
|
||||
continue
|
||||
buy_price = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
|
||||
stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time, direction=OrderDir.BUY
|
||||
)
|
||||
buy_amount = value / buy_price
|
||||
factor = self.trade_exchange.get_factor(
|
||||
stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
|
||||
)
|
||||
buy_amount = self.trade_exchange.round_amount_by_trade_unit(buy_amount, factor)
|
||||
buy_order = Order(
|
||||
stock_id=code,
|
||||
amount=buy_amount,
|
||||
start_time=trade_start_time,
|
||||
end_time=trade_end_time,
|
||||
direction=Order.BUY,
|
||||
)
|
||||
buy_order_list.append(buy_order)
|
||||
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list + buy_order_list, self)
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user