book: scaffold + ch00 (execution trail as spine) — evidence exp 8-31, round 3

2026-08-18 22:35:23 +00:00
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+"""Optimal-stopping / stochastic-control strategy for cross-sectional signals.
+
+Entry is a control policy: a symbol opens a position only when its cross-sectional
+signal percentile is at or above ``entry_pct`` (i.e. it is one of the top-ranked
+names) and the portfolio has fewer than ``topk`` open positions.
+
+Exit is an optimal-stopping rule: a held position is stopped (closed) when its
+signal percentile falls below ``exit_pct`` (the continuation value of holding is
+no longer worth the risk), OR after ``max_hold_days`` (time stop / finite
+horizon), OR when the position P&L breaches ``sl`` (loss control) and the
+position has been held at least ``min_hold_days``.
+
+Sizing is fixed ``notional`` per position (equal-weight control), unlike the
+TopkDropout cash-allocation heuristic.
+
+Wired into qrun workflows like any ``BaseStrategy`` (see ``PortAnaRecord``
+config). Mirrors the API usage of qlib's ``TopkDropoutStrategy``: ``Order``/
+``OrderDir`` from ``qlib.backtest.decision``, ``trade_calendar`` /
+``trade_exchange`` / ``trade_position`` injected by the backtest executor.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from typing import List
+
+import pandas as pd
+
+from qlib.backtest import Order
+from qlib.backtest.decision import OrderDir, TradeDecisionWO
+from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import BaseSignalStrategy
+
+__all__ = ["OptimalStopControl"]
+
+DEFAULT_NOTIONAL = 20_000.0
+DEFAULT_ENTRY_PCT = 0.80
+DEFAULT_EXIT_PCT = 0.50
+DEFAULT_MAX_HOLD_DAYS = 10
+DEFAULT_MIN_HOLD_DAYS = 2
+DEFAULT_SL = -0.06
+
+
+class OptimalStopControl(BaseSignalStrategy):
+    """Optimal-stopping long-only strategy over a cross-sectional signal.
+
+    Parameters
+    ----------
+    topk : max number of concurrent positions.
+    entry_pct : min cross-sectional score percentile required to OPEN (0..1).
+    exit_pct : held positions are stopped when score percentile < exit_pct.
+    max_hold_days : hard time stop (finite-horizon close).
+    min_hold_days : minimum holding days before stop-loss is evaluated.
+    notional : $ per position (equal-weight control).
+    sl : stop-loss threshold as fraction of entry price (<= 0), disabled if 0.
+    """
+
+    def __init__(
+        self,
+        *,
+        signal=None,
+        topk: int = 10,
+        entry_pct: float = DEFAULT_ENTRY_PCT,
+        exit_pct: float = DEFAULT_EXIT_PCT,
+        max_hold_days: int = DEFAULT_MAX_HOLD_DAYS,
+        min_hold_days: int = DEFAULT_MIN_HOLD_DAYS,
+        notional: float = DEFAULT_NOTIONAL,
+        sl: float = DEFAULT_SL,
+        risk_degree: float = 0.95,
+        trade_exchange=None,
+        level_infra=None,
+        common_infra=None,
+        **kwargs,
+    ):
+        super().__init__(
+            signal=signal,
+            trade_exchange=trade_exchange,
+            level_infra=level_infra,
+            common_infra=common_infra,
+            **kwargs,
+        )
+        self.topk = topk
+        self.entry_pct = entry_pct
+        self.exit_pct = exit_pct
+        self.max_hold_days = max_hold_days
+        self.min_hold_days = min_hold_days
+        self.notional = notional
+        self.sl = sl
+
+    # ------------------------------------------------------------------ utils
+    @staticmethod
+    def _pct_rank(score: pd.Series) -> pd.Series:
+        return score.rank(pct=True)
+
+    def _entry_price(self, pos) -> float:
+        # Position stores avg entry price under key "price" (see Position.position)
+        price = pos.position.get("price")
+        if price is None:
+            price = pos.get_stock_amount("price")
+        return float(price)
+
+    def _pnl_pct(self, pos, mark: float) -> float:
+        entry = self._entry_price(pos)
+        if not entry or entry != entry:
+            return 0.0
+        return mark / entry - 1.0
+
+    def _is_tradable(self, code, start, end, direction) -> bool:
+        try:
+            return self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
+                stock_id=code, start_time=start, end_time=end, direction=direction
+            )
+        except TypeError:  # some exchanges take no direction kwarg
+            return self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(stock_id=code, start_time=start, end_time=end)
+
+    # ------------------------------------------------------------ decision
+    def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
+        trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
+        trade_start, trade_end = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
+        pred_start, pred_end = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step, shift=1)
+        pred_score = self.signal.get_signal(start_time=pred_start, end_time=pred_end)
+        if isinstance(pred_score, pd.DataFrame):
+            pred_score = pred_score.iloc[:, 0]
+        if pred_score is None or len(pred_score) == 0:
+            return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
+
+        pct = self._pct_rank(pred_score)
+        time_per_step = self.trade_calendar.get_freq()
+        current_temp = __import__("copy").deepcopy(self.trade_position)
+
+        holdings = {}
+        for code in current_temp.get_stock_list():
+            if abs(current_temp.get_stock_amount(code)) > 1e-6:
+                holdings[code] = current_temp
+
+        # ---- optimal stopping: close held positions -----------------------
+        sell_orders: List[Order] = []
+        closed_today = set()
+        kept = {}
+        for code, pos in holdings.items():
+            held = current_temp.get_stock_count(code, bar=time_per_step)
+            mark = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
+                stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start, end_time=trade_end, direction=Order.SELL
+            )
+            if mark is None or mark != mark:
+                continue
+            rank = pct.get(code, 0.0)
+            stop_pnl = held >= self.min_hold_days and self.sl < 0 and self._pnl_pct(pos, mark) <= self.sl
+            if held >= self.max_hold_days or rank < self.exit_pct or stop_pnl:
+                amt = abs(current_temp.get_stock_amount(code))
+                o = Order(stock_id=code, amount=amt, start_time=trade_start,
+                          end_time=trade_end, direction=Order.SELL)
+                if self.trade_exchange.check_order(o):
+                    sell_orders.append(o)
+                    self.trade_exchange.deal_order(o, position=current_temp)
+                closed_today.add(code)
+            else:
+                kept[code] = mark
+
+        # ---- equal-weight control: target notional per name -----------------
+        # candidate opens: top-ranked names whose signal pct >= entry_pct
+        rank_desc = pred_score.sort_values(ascending=False)
+        held_codes = set(kept)
+        opens = []
+        for sym in rank_desc.index:
+            if len(opens) >= self.topk:
+                break
+            if sym in held_codes:
+                continue
+            if pct.get(sym, 0.0) < self.entry_pct:
+                continue
+            if not self._is_tradable(sym, trade_start, trade_end, OrderDir.BUY):
+                continue
+            opens.append(sym)
+
+        targets = held_codes | set(opens)
+        if not targets:
+            return TradeDecisionWO(sell_orders, self)
+
+        # total value (cash + marked positions) -> per-target notional
+        total_value = current_temp.get_cash()
+        for code, mark in kept.items():
+            total_value += abs(current_temp.get_stock_amount(code)) * mark
+
+        target_notional = total_value * self.risk_degree / max(1, len(targets))
+
+        # ---- rebalance kept positions toward target weight ------------------
+        buy_orders: List[Order] = []
+        for code, mark in kept.items():
+            cur = abs(current_temp.get_stock_amount(code)) * mark
+            diff_notional = target_notional - cur
+            if abs(diff_notional) / target_notional < 0.02:
+                continue  # skip tiny rebalances
+            amount_delta = diff_notional / mark
+            direction = Order.BUY if amount_delta > 0 else Order.SELL
+            o = Order(stock_id=code, amount=abs(amount_delta), start_time=trade_start,
+                      end_time=trade_end, direction=direction)
+            if self.trade_exchange.check_order(o):
+                (buy_orders if direction == Order.BUY else sell_orders).append(o)
+                self.trade_exchange.deal_order(o, position=current_temp)
+
+        # ---- open new positions at target weight ----------------------------
+        for sym in opens:
+            px = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
+                stock_id=sym, start_time=trade_start, end_time=trade_end, direction=OrderDir.BUY
+            )
+            if px is None or px != px or px <= 0:
+                continue
+            amount = target_notional / px
+            factor = self.trade_exchange.get_factor(
+                stock_id=sym, start_time=trade_start, end_time=trade_end
+            )
+            amount = self.trade_exchange.round_amount_by_trade_unit(amount, factor)
+            o = Order(stock_id=sym, amount=amount, start_time=trade_start,
+                      end_time=trade_end, direction=Order.BUY)
+            if self.trade_exchange.check_order(o):
+                buy_orders.append(o)
+
+        return TradeDecisionWO(sell_orders + buy_orders, self)