Q14 result: compact stochastic set REFUTED on single-stock universe (EVIDENCE#033, exp 50)

book/EVIDENCE.md

@@ -49,6 +49,7 @@ Experiments 8–18 record metrics under a legacy schema (`ls_sharpe`, `maxdd_wit
 | EVIDENCE#030 | Q09 long-short top10/bottom10: real pre-cost edge (gross +6.57%, IR 0.656) destroyed by daily L/S turnover — total_cost $96,721 (≈9.7% of $1M), 2485 trades/150d, fill rate 0.401; net −8.38%, IR −0.834, maxDD −11.22%. | exp 41, run `0647eadd…` (mlflow exp 39), branch `exp/41-q09-long-short-market-neutral-long-top-1` | yes — Q09 FAIL (turnover kills) |
 | EVIDENCE#031 | Q10 HMM regime entry gate (sp_hmm_p_regime1 ≥ 0.5 overlay): meets only the DD leg (−7.38% maxDD) — churns 276 trades/150d, cost ~6.3pp erases +2.02% gross; net −4.26%, IR −0.382. Regime-overlay hypothesis refuted. | exp 42, run `436acd01…` (mlflow exp 40), branch `exp/42-q10-hmm-regime-overlay-entry-gate-on-sph` | yes — Q10 FAIL |
 | EVIDENCE#032 | Q11 standalone 5d reversal (single feature sp_trend_slope_5): IC is slightly positive (+0.0023), so the model did NOT learn reversal — the pooled trend-slope reversal beta does not reproduce standalone. Gross −10.36%, net −15.22% (IR −1.572). Cost is not the culprit. | exp 43, run `e859adfe…` (mlflow exp 41), branch `exp/43-q11-standalone-5d-reversal-single-featur` | yes — Q11 FAIL (no reversal learned) |
+| EVIDENCE#033 | Q14 out-of-universe validation: compact stochastic set on 30 liquid single-stock names (AAPL,MSFT,NVDA,…). RankIC −0.0198 (needed >0.03), ICIR −0.073 (needed >0.15) — signal is noise on this universe. Net P&L positive (+10.02% ann, IR 0.668, maxDD −6.67%) but that is top-10 concentration luck, not predictive signal. Train RankIC 0.316 shows the model overfits to the 50-ETF panel. | exp 50, run `809ff460…` (mlflow exp 50 `tac-rd-q14-out-of-universe`), branch `exp/50-q14-compact-stochastic-set-generalizes-t` | yes — Q14 FAIL (signal does not generalize cross-universe) |
 
 ## Live execution trail