Q14 result: compact stochastic set REFUTED on single-stock universe (EVIDENCE#033, exp 50)

book/CLAIMS.md

@@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ The running scoreboard of every quantitative claim in the book. Updated per chap
 | Baseline 1-day LGB signal is weak / costs erase most of the edge | HYPOTHESIS (idea: pre-clean-lake, exp 8) | EVIDENCE#001/002 → exp 8 |
 | More features ≠ better signal on a small (50-name) cross-section | HYPOTHESIS (3+ supporting runs, panel-specific) | EVIDENCE#003/004/014/017/019 |
 | Mean reversion (OU z-score, trend-slope reversal) is the stable single-feature edge | REFUTED (single-feature trend-slope reversal tested, no reversal learned) | EVIDENCE#032 → exp 43 (Q11) |
+| Compact stochastic set generalizes to liquid single-stock names | REFUTED (out-of-universe RankIC −0.02, ICIR −0.07 — signal is noise on 30-name stock panel) | EVIDENCE#033 → exp 50 (Q14) |
 | Assets are submartingales long-horizon / mean-reverting short-horizon (VR<1 at 5–20d) | HYPOTHESIS (chat-derived martingale study, exp 19 never closed) | book/data/chat_mining/martingale-study.txt |
 
 ## Model
@@ -80,5 +81,5 @@ The running scoreboard of every quantitative claim in the book. Updated per chap
 - exp 15 Kelly sizing: re-run — DONE — refuted on the clean lake by Q06 (exp 38); mark the old hypothesis REFUTED.
 - exp 18 risk-limit spec: re-validate $5M liquidity floor on the post-reset reference signal — DONE — refuted as an IR lever by Q08 (exp 40); keep as safety net only.
 - Weekly rebalance: reproduce on a second window / take to a live round.
-- Out-of-universe validation: non-ETF universe for the compact stochastic feature set.
+- Out-of-universe validation: non-ETF universe for the compact stochastic feature set. — DONE — refuted by Q14 (exp 50); RankIC −0.02, ICIR −0.07 on 30 liquid single-stock names.
 - Long-horizon label (10d/22d) with a matching low-turnover construction (e.g. weekly recompute) — signal says the edge is there, cost says daily churn kills it; untested combination.