start experiment 60 (exp/60-scheduled-algo-retrain-on-2026-08-21-tac)
This commit is contained in:
zhaoli
@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
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from .optimal_stop import OptimalStopControl # noqa: F401
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from .long_short import LongShortTopkStrategy # noqa: F401
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__all__ = ["OptimalStopControl"]
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__all__ = ["OptimalStopControl", "LongShortTopkStrategy"]
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@@ -0,0 +1,201 @@
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"""Fractional-Kelly dropout strategy for cross-sectional signals.
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Sizing rule variant of ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy``:
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the topk/n_drop SELECTION is identical to the reference, but the buy size is
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proportional to the score MAGNITUDE (edge) instead of equal-weight, capped at a
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fraction ``cap_frac`` of the equal-weight notional so a single name cannot
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over-concentrate the book.
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``cap_frac`` is the fraction of the equal-weight per-name notional that a top
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signal can deploy at most (e.g. 0.5 = at most half the equal-weight size).
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Names whose score is below the median of the buy set get a proportionally
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smaller slice; the residual stays in cash (that is the point of the rule:
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throw away less edge per name, deploy less capital when conviction is low).
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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from typing import List
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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from qlib.backtest import Order
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from qlib.backtest.decision import OrderDir, TradeDecisionWO
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from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
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__all__ = ["FractionalKellyDropoutStrategy"]
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DEFAULT_CAP_FRAC = 0.5
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class FractionalKellyDropoutStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
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"""TopkDropout selection with score-magnitude (fractional-Kelly) sizing.
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Parameters
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----------
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topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
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forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
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cap_frac : max buy notional as a fraction of the equal-weight notional.
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"""
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def __init__(self, *, topk, n_drop, cap_frac: float = DEFAULT_CAP_FRAC, **kwargs):
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super().__init__(topk=topk, n_drop=n_drop, **kwargs)
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self.cap_frac = cap_frac
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def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
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import copy
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trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
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trade_start_time, trade_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
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pred_start_time, pred_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step, shift=1)
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pred_score = self.signal.get_signal(start_time=pred_start_time, end_time=pred_end_time)
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if isinstance(pred_score, pd.DataFrame):
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pred_score = pred_score.iloc[:, 0]
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if pred_score is None:
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return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
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if self.only_tradable:
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def get_first_n(li, n, reverse=False):
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cur_n = 0
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res = []
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for si in reversed(li) if reverse else li:
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if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
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stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
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):
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res.append(si)
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cur_n += 1
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if cur_n >= n:
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break
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return res[::-1] if reverse else res
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def get_last_n(li, n):
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return get_first_n(li, n, reverse=True)
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def filter_stock(li):
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return [
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si
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for si in li
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if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
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stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
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)
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]
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else:
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def get_first_n(li, n):
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return list(li)[:n]
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def get_last_n(li, n):
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return list(li)[-n:]
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def filter_stock(li):
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return li
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current_temp: "object" = copy.deepcopy(self.trade_position)
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sell_order_list: List[Order] = []
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buy_order_list: List[Order] = []
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cash = current_temp.get_cash()
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current_stock_list = current_temp.get_stock_list()
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last = pred_score.reindex(current_stock_list).sort_values(ascending=False).index
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if self.method_buy == "top":
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today = get_first_n(
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pred_score[~pred_score.index.isin(last)].sort_values(ascending=False).index,
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self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last),
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)
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elif self.method_buy == "random":
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topk_candi = get_first_n(pred_score.sort_values(ascending=False).index, self.topk)
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candi = list(filter(lambda x: x not in last, topk_candi))
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n = self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last)
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try:
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today = np.random.choice(candi, n, replace=False)
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except ValueError:
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today = candi
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else:
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raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
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comb = pred_score.reindex(last.union(pd.Index(today))).sort_values(ascending=False).index
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if self.method_sell == "bottom":
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sell = last[last.isin(get_last_n(comb, self.n_drop))]
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elif self.method_sell == "random":
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candi = filter_stock(last)
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try:
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sell = pd.Index(np.random.choice(candi, self.n_drop, replace=False) if len(last) else [])
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except ValueError:
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sell = candi
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else:
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raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
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buy = today[: len(sell) + self.topk - len(last)]
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for code in current_stock_list:
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if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
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stock_id=code,
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start_time=trade_start_time,
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end_time=trade_end_time,
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direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.SELL,
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):
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continue
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if code in sell:
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time_per_step = self.trade_calendar.get_freq()
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if current_temp.get_stock_count(code, bar=time_per_step) < self.hold_thresh:
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continue
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sell_amount = current_temp.get_stock_amount(code=code)
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sell_order = Order(
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stock_id=code,
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amount=sell_amount,
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start_time=trade_start_time,
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end_time=trade_end_time,
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direction=Order.SELL,
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)
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if self.trade_exchange.check_order(sell_order):
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sell_order_list.append(sell_order)
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trade_val, trade_cost, trade_price = self.trade_exchange.deal_order(
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sell_order, position=current_temp
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)
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cash += trade_val - trade_cost
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if len(buy) == 0:
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return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list, self)
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# ---- fractional-Kelly sizing --------------------------------------
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# equal-weight notional (reference baseline)
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eq_notional = cash * self.risk_degree / len(buy)
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buy_scores = pred_score.reindex(buy).astype(float)
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lo, hi = buy_scores.min(), buy_scores.max()
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if hi == lo:
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w = pd.Series(1.0, index=buy_scores.index)
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else:
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w = (buy_scores - lo) / (hi - lo) # [0,1] edge magnitude
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w = w.clip(lower=0.0)
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w_max = w.max()
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w = w / w_max if w_max > 0 else w # max == 1.0
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for code in buy:
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if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
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stock_id=code,
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start_time=trade_start_time,
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end_time=trade_end_time,
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direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.BUY,
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):
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continue
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buy_price = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
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stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time, direction=OrderDir.BUY
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)
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notional = eq_notional * min(self.cap_frac, float(w.get(code, 0.0)))
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buy_amount = notional / buy_price
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factor = self.trade_exchange.get_factor(
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stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
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)
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buy_amount = self.trade_exchange.round_amount_by_trade_unit(buy_amount, factor)
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buy_order = Order(
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stock_id=code,
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amount=buy_amount,
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start_time=trade_start_time,
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end_time=trade_end_time,
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direction=Order.BUY,
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)
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buy_order_list.append(buy_order)
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return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list + buy_order_list, self)
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@@ -0,0 +1,361 @@
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"""Long-short Top-K strategy for cross-sectional signals.
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Each day the strategy ranks the cross-section by prediction score and rebalances
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to an equal-weight two-sided book: the ``topk`` highest-ranked names go long and
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the ``k_short`` lowest-ranked names go short. Net-new shorts are opened by
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selling beyond current holdings, which requires a short-aware exchange such as
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``tac_qlib.contrib.backtest.tradeac_exchange.TradeACExchange`` with
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``allow_short=True`` (borrow limits, margin requirements and borrow fees are
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enforced there, not here).
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Sizing deploys ``equity * risk_degree`` as gross notional split evenly across
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all long and short legs, so the book is approximately market neutral.
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``allow_short=False`` disables the short side entirely (long-only ``topk``).
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Short eligibility can be restricted further, with static or dynamic gates:
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``short_whitelist`` limits shorts to an explicit symbol set; ``short_vol_top_pct``
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requires a candidate's trailing realized volatility to rank in the top fraction
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of that day's cross-section; ``short_max_mom`` (falling-knife filter) only
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allows shorting names whose own trailing momentum is at/below a threshold;
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``short_regime_sma`` disables shorts entirely while the benchmark trades above
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its moving average (risk-on). Borrow availability itself is enforced by the
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exchange (``borrowable`` whitelist / per-symbol caps via ``TradeACExchange``).
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Wired into qrun workflows like any ``BaseStrategy`` (see ``PortAnaRecord``
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config). Mirrors the API usage of qlib's ``TopkDropoutStrategy``: ``Order`` /
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``OrderDir`` from ``qlib.backtest.decision``, ``trade_calendar`` /
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``trade_exchange`` / ``trade_position`` injected by the backtest executor.
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import copy
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from typing import Dict, List, Optional
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import pandas as pd
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from qlib.backtest import Order
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from qlib.backtest.decision import OrderDir, TradeDecisionWO
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from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import BaseSignalStrategy
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from qlib.log import get_module_logger
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__all__ = ["LongShortTopkStrategy"]
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class LongShortTopkStrategy(BaseSignalStrategy):
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"""Equal-weight long-short Top-K strategy over a cross-sectional signal.
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Parameters
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----------
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topk : number of long legs (highest-ranked names).
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k_short : number of short legs (lowest-ranked names).
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hold_thresh : minimum holding days before a leg may be closed/reduced.
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only_tradable : only select candidates tradable on the trade date.
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rebalance_tol : skip rebalances smaller than this fraction of a leg's
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target notional (turnover control).
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allow_short : enable/disable the short side. With ``False`` the bottom-ranked
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legs are dropped and the book is long-only ``topk``; pair with
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``allow_short=False`` on the exchange for a fully borrow-free run.
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Legacy alias ``enable_short`` is accepted.
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short_whitelist : optional list of symbols eligible for shorting; candidates
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outside the list are skipped (``None`` = all names eligible).
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short_vol_window : trailing window (trading days) for realized-vol estimation.
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short_vol_top_pct : if set, a short candidate's trailing realized volatility
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must rank at or above this percentile of that day's cross-section
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(e.g. ``0.5`` = only the more volatile half may be shorted). Candidates
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without measurable vol are never shorted.
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short_mom_window : trailing window (trading days) for the candidate momentum
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used by the falling-knife gate.
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short_max_mom : if set, a candidate's trailing ``short_mom_window``-day return
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must be <= this value to be shortable (e.g. ``0.0`` = only short names
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that are actually falling). Candidates without measurable momentum are
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never shorted.
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short_regime_symbol : benchmark symbol for the regime gate (default SPY).
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short_regime_sma : if set, shorts are only allowed on days where the regime
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symbol's last close (strictly before the execution bar) is BELOW its
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``short_regime_sma``-day moving average — i.e. shorts are disabled in
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risk-on regimes and enabled in drawdowns.
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"""
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def __init__(
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self,
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*,
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signal=None,
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topk: int = 4,
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k_short: int = 2,
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hold_thresh: int = 1,
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only_tradable: bool = True,
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rebalance_tol: float = 0.05,
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allow_short: Optional[bool] = None,
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enable_short: Optional[bool] = None,
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short_whitelist: Optional[List[str]] = None,
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short_vol_window: int = 20,
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short_vol_top_pct: Optional[float] = None,
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short_mom_window: int = 20,
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short_max_mom: Optional[float] = None,
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short_regime_symbol: str = "SPY",
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short_regime_sma: Optional[int] = None,
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risk_degree: float = 0.95,
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trade_exchange=None,
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level_infra=None,
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common_infra=None,
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**kwargs,
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):
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super().__init__(
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signal=signal,
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risk_degree=risk_degree,
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trade_exchange=trade_exchange,
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level_infra=level_infra,
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common_infra=common_infra,
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**kwargs,
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)
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if allow_short is None:
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allow_short = True if enable_short is None else bool(enable_short)
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self.allow_short = bool(allow_short)
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self.topk = topk
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self.k_short = k_short
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self.hold_thresh = hold_thresh
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self.only_tradable = only_tradable
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self.rebalance_tol = rebalance_tol
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self.short_whitelist = set(short_whitelist) if short_whitelist is not None else None
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if not 0 < float(short_vol_window) <= 1000:
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raise ValueError(f"short_vol_window must be in (0, 1000], got {short_vol_window}")
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self.short_vol_window = int(short_vol_window)
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if short_vol_top_pct is not None and not 0.0 < float(short_vol_top_pct) <= 1.0:
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raise ValueError(f"short_vol_top_pct must be in (0, 1], got {short_vol_top_pct}")
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self.short_vol_top_pct = None if short_vol_top_pct is None else float(short_vol_top_pct)
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if not 0 < float(short_mom_window) <= 1000:
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raise ValueError(f"short_mom_window must be in (0, 1000], got {short_mom_window}")
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self.short_mom_window = int(short_mom_window)
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self.short_max_mom = None if short_max_mom is None else float(short_max_mom)
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self.short_regime_symbol = str(short_regime_symbol)
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if short_regime_sma is not None and not 1 < int(short_regime_sma) <= 1000:
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raise ValueError(f"short_regime_sma must be in (1, 1000], got {short_regime_sma}")
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self.short_regime_sma = None if short_regime_sma is None else int(short_regime_sma)
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# per-day caches (keyed by trade date)
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self._vol_cache_key: Optional[str] = None
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self._vol_cache_val: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]] = {}
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self._regime_cache: Dict[str, bool] = {}
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# ------------------------------------------------------------------ utils
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def _is_tradable(self, code, start, end) -> bool:
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if not self.only_tradable:
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return True
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try:
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return self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(stock_id=code, start_time=start, end_time=end)
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except TypeError:
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return True
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def _mark_price(self, code, start, end) -> Optional[float]:
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try:
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px = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
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stock_id=code, start_time=start, end_time=end, direction=OrderDir.BUY
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)
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except (KeyError, ValueError):
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return None
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if px is None or px != px or px <= 0:
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return None
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return float(px)
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def _day_stats(self, codes: List[str], trade_start) -> Dict[str, Dict[str, float]]:
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"""Per-day cross-sectional stats used by the dynamic short gates.
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For each code, returns ``{"vol_rank": r}`` (percentile of trailing
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realized vol over ``short_vol_window`` bars across that day's
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cross-section) when the vol gate is on, and ``{"mom": m}`` (trailing
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``short_mom_window``-bar return) when the falling-knife gate is on.
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All series end on the last bar strictly BEFORE the execution bar (no
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lookahead). Codes without measurable data are simply absent — such
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candidates are never shorted (fail-closed).
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"""
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if self.short_vol_top_pct is None and self.short_max_mom is None:
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return {}
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key = str(pd.Timestamp(trade_start))
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if self._vol_cache_key == key:
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return self._vol_cache_val
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out: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]] = {}
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try:
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from qlib.data import D
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end = pd.Timestamp(trade_start)
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buf = max(self.short_vol_window, self.short_mom_window) * 3 + 30
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df = D.features(
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sorted(codes),
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["$close"],
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start_time=end - pd.Timedelta(days=buf),
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end_time=end - pd.Timedelta(days=1),
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)
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close = df["$close"].unstack(level="instrument") if isinstance(df.index, pd.MultiIndex) else df["$close"]
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if self.short_vol_top_pct is not None:
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vol = close.pct_change().rolling(self.short_vol_window).std().iloc[-1]
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for code, rank in vol.rank(pct=True).dropna().items():
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out.setdefault(str(code), {})["vol_rank"] = float(rank)
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if self.short_max_mom is not None:
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w = min(self.short_mom_window, len(close) - 1)
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mom = close.iloc[-1] / close.iloc[-(w + 1)] - 1
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for code, m in mom.items():
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if m == m:
|
||||
out.setdefault(str(code), {})["mom"] = float(m)
|
||||
except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001 - degrade to fail-closed (no shorts)
|
||||
get_module_logger(self.__class__.__name__).warning(
|
||||
f"short gates unavailable ({type(e).__name__}: {e}); no shorts this step"
|
||||
)
|
||||
self._vol_cache_key, self._vol_cache_val = key, out
|
||||
return out
|
||||
|
||||
def _regime_ok(self, trade_start) -> bool:
|
||||
"""True when shorting is allowed by the benchmark-regime gate.
|
||||
|
||||
With ``short_regime_sma`` set, shorts are permitted only while the
|
||||
regime symbol's last close strictly before the execution bar sits below
|
||||
its moving average (risk-off). Data failure fails closed (no shorts).
|
||||
"""
|
||||
if self.short_regime_sma is None:
|
||||
return True
|
||||
key = str(pd.Timestamp(trade_start))
|
||||
cached = self._regime_cache.get(key)
|
||||
if cached is not None:
|
||||
return cached
|
||||
ok = False
|
||||
try:
|
||||
from qlib.data import D
|
||||
|
||||
end = pd.Timestamp(trade_start)
|
||||
df = D.features(
|
||||
[self.short_regime_symbol],
|
||||
["$close"],
|
||||
start_time=end - pd.Timedelta(days=int(self.short_regime_sma * 3 + 30)),
|
||||
end_time=end - pd.Timedelta(days=1),
|
||||
)
|
||||
s = df["$close"]
|
||||
if isinstance(s.index, pd.MultiIndex):
|
||||
s = s.droplevel("instrument")
|
||||
sma = s.rolling(self.short_regime_sma).mean().iloc[-1]
|
||||
px = s.iloc[-1]
|
||||
ok = bool(px < sma)
|
||||
except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001 - degrade to fail-closed (no shorts)
|
||||
get_module_logger(self.__class__.__name__).warning(
|
||||
f"regime gate unavailable ({type(e).__name__}: {e}); no shorts this step"
|
||||
)
|
||||
self._regime_cache[key] = ok
|
||||
return ok
|
||||
|
||||
# ------------------------------------------------------------- decision
|
||||
def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
|
||||
trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
|
||||
trade_start, trade_end = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
|
||||
pred_start, pred_end = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step, shift=1)
|
||||
pred_score = self.signal.get_signal(start_time=pred_start, end_time=pred_end)
|
||||
if isinstance(pred_score, pd.DataFrame):
|
||||
pred_score = pred_score.iloc[:, 0]
|
||||
if pred_score is None or len(pred_score) == 0:
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
|
||||
pred_score = pred_score.dropna()
|
||||
if pred_score.empty:
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
|
||||
|
||||
time_per_step = self.trade_calendar.get_freq()
|
||||
current_temp = copy.deepcopy(self.trade_position)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- signed current holdings ---------------------------------------
|
||||
cur_amount: Dict[str, float] = {}
|
||||
for code in current_temp.get_stock_list():
|
||||
amt = float(current_temp.get_stock_amount(code))
|
||||
if abs(amt) > 1e-6:
|
||||
cur_amount[code] = amt
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- targets: top-k long, bottom-k_short short ----------------------
|
||||
ranked = list(pred_score.sort_values(ascending=False).index)
|
||||
longs: List[str] = []
|
||||
for code in ranked:
|
||||
if len(longs) >= self.topk:
|
||||
break
|
||||
if self._is_tradable(code, trade_start, trade_end):
|
||||
longs.append(code)
|
||||
shorts: List[str] = []
|
||||
if self.allow_short and self._regime_ok(trade_start):
|
||||
stats = self._day_stats(list(ranked), trade_start)
|
||||
for code in reversed(ranked):
|
||||
if len(shorts) >= self.k_short:
|
||||
break
|
||||
if code in longs:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
if not self._is_tradable(code, trade_start, trade_end):
|
||||
continue
|
||||
if self.short_whitelist is not None and code not in self.short_whitelist:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
st = stats.get(code)
|
||||
if self.short_vol_top_pct is not None:
|
||||
rank = None if st is None else st.get("vol_rank")
|
||||
if rank is None or rank < self.short_vol_top_pct:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
if self.short_max_mom is not None:
|
||||
mom = None if st is None else st.get("mom")
|
||||
if mom is None or mom > self.short_max_mom:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
shorts.append(code)
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- marks & equity --------------------------------------------------
|
||||
marks: Dict[str, float] = {}
|
||||
for code in set(cur_amount) | set(longs) | set(shorts):
|
||||
px = self._mark_price(code, trade_start, trade_end)
|
||||
if px is not None:
|
||||
marks[code] = px
|
||||
|
||||
equity = current_temp.get_cash()
|
||||
for code, amt in cur_amount.items():
|
||||
if code in marks:
|
||||
equity += amt * marks[code]
|
||||
if equity <= 0:
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
|
||||
|
||||
n_legs = len([c for c in longs if c in marks]) + len([c for c in shorts if c in marks])
|
||||
if n_legs == 0:
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
|
||||
per_leg = equity * self.risk_degree / n_legs
|
||||
|
||||
target_signed: Dict[str, float] = {}
|
||||
for code in longs:
|
||||
if code in marks:
|
||||
target_signed[code] = per_leg / marks[code]
|
||||
for code in shorts:
|
||||
if code in marks:
|
||||
target_signed[code] = -(per_leg / marks[code])
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- order generation -------------------------------------------------
|
||||
sell_orders: List[Order] = []
|
||||
buy_orders: List[Order] = []
|
||||
|
||||
def submit(code: str, amount: float, direction: int) -> None:
|
||||
factor = self.trade_exchange.get_factor(stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start, end_time=trade_end)
|
||||
amount = self.trade_exchange.round_amount_by_trade_unit(amount, factor)
|
||||
if amount <= 1e-6:
|
||||
return
|
||||
o = Order(stock_id=code, amount=amount, start_time=trade_start, end_time=trade_end, direction=direction)
|
||||
if self.trade_exchange.check_order(o):
|
||||
(buy_orders if direction == Order.BUY else sell_orders).append(o)
|
||||
|
||||
# close holdings that are no longer targeted (frees cash / unwinds shorts)
|
||||
for code, amt in cur_amount.items():
|
||||
if code in target_signed:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
if marks.get(code) is None:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
if current_temp.get_stock_count(code, bar=time_per_step) < self.hold_thresh:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
submit(code, abs(amt), Order.SELL if amt > 0 else Order.BUY)
|
||||
|
||||
# rebalance targeted legs toward their signed target quantity
|
||||
for code, tgt in target_signed.items():
|
||||
cur = cur_amount.get(code, 0.0)
|
||||
delta = tgt - cur
|
||||
if abs(delta * marks[code]) < max(self.rebalance_tol * per_leg, 1.0):
|
||||
continue
|
||||
if delta > 0:
|
||||
submit(code, delta, Order.BUY)
|
||||
else:
|
||||
if cur > 0 and current_temp.get_stock_count(code, bar=time_per_step) < self.hold_thresh:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
submit(code, -delta, Order.SELL)
|
||||
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO(sell_orders + buy_orders, self)
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,231 @@
|
||||
"""HMM-regime overlay TopkDropout strategy.
|
||||
|
||||
Regime-gate overlay on ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy``:
|
||||
selection and sizing are identical to the reference, but a name is only BOUGHT
|
||||
(entry gate) when its per-symbol HMM regime posterior ``sp_hmm_p_regime1`` on
|
||||
the signal date is >= ``regime_threshold``; otherwise it is held in cash instead
|
||||
of being opened.
|
||||
|
||||
The regime posterior is read from the lake feature provider on the fly via
|
||||
``qlib.data.D.features`` (field ``$sp_hmm_p_regime1``) for the signal window, so
|
||||
no regime column needs to enter the model's ``feature_fields`` — the gate is a
|
||||
pure overlay (book ch.01: regime flags regressed as model features, survived
|
||||
only as an overlay). The HMM itself was fit with ``fit_end=<train end>`` when
|
||||
the lake features were backfilled, so there is no lookahead.
|
||||
|
||||
Names already held are NOT force-sold when the regime turns unfavourable
|
||||
(entry gate only, matching the queue-10 design).
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||
|
||||
from typing import List
|
||||
|
||||
import numpy as np
|
||||
import pandas as pd
|
||||
|
||||
from qlib.backtest import Order
|
||||
from qlib.backtest.decision import OrderDir, TradeDecisionWO
|
||||
from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
|
||||
|
||||
try:
|
||||
from qlib.data import D
|
||||
except ImportError: # pragma: no cover - qlib always present in this stack
|
||||
D = None
|
||||
|
||||
__all__ = ["RegimeGateDropoutStrategy"]
|
||||
|
||||
DEFAULT_REGIME_THRESHOLD = 0.5
|
||||
REGIME_FIELD = "$sp_hmm_p_regime1"
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
class RegimeGateDropoutStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
|
||||
"""TopkDropout with an HMM-regime entry gate on buy candidates.
|
||||
|
||||
Parameters
|
||||
----------
|
||||
topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
|
||||
forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
|
||||
regime_threshold : minimum ``sp_hmm_p_regime1`` posterior required to open a
|
||||
new position (default 0.5).
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
def __init__(self, *, topk, n_drop, regime_threshold: float = DEFAULT_REGIME_THRESHOLD, **kwargs):
|
||||
super().__init__(topk=topk, n_drop=n_drop, **kwargs)
|
||||
self.regime_threshold = regime_threshold
|
||||
|
||||
def _regime_for(self, codes, pred_start, pred_end) -> pd.Series:
|
||||
"""Return {code: sp_hmm_p_regime1} for the signal window (last day)."""
|
||||
if D is None:
|
||||
return pd.Series(dtype=float)
|
||||
try:
|
||||
df = D.features(list(codes), [REGIME_FIELD], start_time=pred_start, end_time=pred_end, freq="day")
|
||||
except Exception: # noqa: BLE001 - a regime read failure should gate open, not crash
|
||||
return pd.Series(dtype=float)
|
||||
if df is None or len(df) == 0:
|
||||
return pd.Series(dtype=float)
|
||||
# df index is MultiIndex (datetime, instrument); take the last day's values
|
||||
df = df.reset_index()
|
||||
ts_col = "datetime" if "datetime" in df.columns else df.columns[0]
|
||||
sym_col = "instrument" if "instrument" in df.columns else df.columns[1]
|
||||
last_ts = df[ts_col].max()
|
||||
last = df[df[ts_col] == last_ts]
|
||||
out = {}
|
||||
for _, row in last.iterrows():
|
||||
sym = str(row[sym_col]).split("/")[-1].upper()
|
||||
val = row.iloc[-1]
|
||||
out[sym] = float(val) if val == val else np.nan
|
||||
return pd.Series(out)
|
||||
|
||||
def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
|
||||
import copy
|
||||
|
||||
trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
|
||||
trade_start_time, trade_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
|
||||
pred_start_time, pred_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step, shift=1)
|
||||
pred_score = self.signal.get_signal(start_time=pred_start_time, end_time=pred_end_time)
|
||||
if isinstance(pred_score, pd.DataFrame):
|
||||
pred_score = pred_score.iloc[:, 0]
|
||||
if pred_score is None:
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
|
||||
|
||||
if self.only_tradable:
|
||||
|
||||
def get_first_n(li, n, reverse=False):
|
||||
cur_n = 0
|
||||
res = []
|
||||
for si in reversed(li) if reverse else li:
|
||||
if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
|
||||
stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
|
||||
):
|
||||
res.append(si)
|
||||
cur_n += 1
|
||||
if cur_n >= n:
|
||||
break
|
||||
return res[::-1] if reverse else res
|
||||
|
||||
def get_last_n(li, n):
|
||||
return get_first_n(li, n, reverse=True)
|
||||
|
||||
def filter_stock(li):
|
||||
return [
|
||||
si
|
||||
for si in li
|
||||
if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
|
||||
stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
|
||||
)
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
else:
|
||||
|
||||
def get_first_n(li, n):
|
||||
return list(li)[:n]
|
||||
|
||||
def get_last_n(li, n):
|
||||
return list(li)[-n:]
|
||||
|
||||
def filter_stock(li):
|
||||
return li
|
||||
|
||||
current_temp: "object" = copy.deepcopy(self.trade_position)
|
||||
sell_order_list: List[Order] = []
|
||||
buy_order_list: List[Order] = []
|
||||
cash = current_temp.get_cash()
|
||||
current_stock_list = current_temp.get_stock_list()
|
||||
last = pred_score.reindex(current_stock_list).sort_values(ascending=False).index
|
||||
|
||||
if self.method_buy == "top":
|
||||
today = get_first_n(
|
||||
pred_score[~pred_score.index.isin(last)].sort_values(ascending=False).index,
|
||||
self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last),
|
||||
)
|
||||
elif self.method_buy == "random":
|
||||
topk_candi = get_first_n(pred_score.sort_values(ascending=False).index, self.topk)
|
||||
candi = list(filter(lambda x: x not in last, topk_candi))
|
||||
n = self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last)
|
||||
try:
|
||||
today = np.random.choice(candi, n, replace=False)
|
||||
except ValueError:
|
||||
today = candi
|
||||
else:
|
||||
raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
|
||||
|
||||
comb = pred_score.reindex(last.union(pd.Index(today))).sort_values(ascending=False).index
|
||||
|
||||
if self.method_sell == "bottom":
|
||||
sell = last[last.isin(get_last_n(comb, self.n_drop))]
|
||||
elif self.method_sell == "random":
|
||||
candi = filter_stock(last)
|
||||
try:
|
||||
sell = pd.Index(np.random.choice(candi, self.n_drop, replace=False) if len(last) else [])
|
||||
except ValueError:
|
||||
sell = candi
|
||||
else:
|
||||
raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
|
||||
|
||||
buy = today[: len(sell) + self.topk - len(last)]
|
||||
|
||||
# ---- regime gate -----------------------------------------------------
|
||||
if buy:
|
||||
regime = self._regime_for(buy, pred_start_time, pred_end_time)
|
||||
gated = [c for c in buy if regime.get(c, np.nan) >= self.regime_threshold]
|
||||
else:
|
||||
gated = []
|
||||
|
||||
for code in current_stock_list:
|
||||
if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
|
||||
stock_id=code,
|
||||
start_time=trade_start_time,
|
||||
end_time=trade_end_time,
|
||||
direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.SELL,
|
||||
):
|
||||
continue
|
||||
if code in sell:
|
||||
time_per_step = self.trade_calendar.get_freq()
|
||||
if current_temp.get_stock_count(code, bar=time_per_step) < self.hold_thresh:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
sell_amount = current_temp.get_stock_amount(code=code)
|
||||
sell_order = Order(
|
||||
stock_id=code,
|
||||
amount=sell_amount,
|
||||
start_time=trade_start_time,
|
||||
end_time=trade_end_time,
|
||||
direction=Order.SELL,
|
||||
)
|
||||
if self.trade_exchange.check_order(sell_order):
|
||||
sell_order_list.append(sell_order)
|
||||
trade_val, trade_cost, trade_price = self.trade_exchange.deal_order(
|
||||
sell_order, position=current_temp
|
||||
)
|
||||
cash += trade_val - trade_cost
|
||||
|
||||
if len(gated) == 0:
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list, self)
|
||||
|
||||
value = cash * self.risk_degree / len(gated)
|
||||
for code in gated:
|
||||
if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
|
||||
stock_id=code,
|
||||
start_time=trade_start_time,
|
||||
end_time=trade_end_time,
|
||||
direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.BUY,
|
||||
):
|
||||
continue
|
||||
buy_price = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
|
||||
stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time, direction=OrderDir.BUY
|
||||
)
|
||||
buy_amount = value / buy_price
|
||||
factor = self.trade_exchange.get_factor(
|
||||
stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
|
||||
)
|
||||
buy_amount = self.trade_exchange.round_amount_by_trade_unit(buy_amount, factor)
|
||||
buy_order = Order(
|
||||
stock_id=code,
|
||||
amount=buy_amount,
|
||||
start_time=trade_start_time,
|
||||
end_time=trade_end_time,
|
||||
direction=Order.BUY,
|
||||
)
|
||||
buy_order_list.append(buy_order)
|
||||
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list + buy_order_list, self)
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,202 @@
|
||||
"""Weekly-rebalance TopkDropout strategy.
|
||||
|
||||
Turnover-reduction variant of ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy``:
|
||||
the topk/n_drop selection and sizing are identical to the reference, but the
|
||||
target book is recomputed only on the first trading day of each ISO week; on the
|
||||
other days the strategy issues NO orders (holds the book untouched).
|
||||
|
||||
The weekly cadence is derived from the qlib trade calendar: a rebalance happens
|
||||
when the current trade step's date belongs to a different ISO ``(year, week)``
|
||||
than the previous trade step. ``hold_band_pct`` (default 0) optionally skips
|
||||
tiny rebalances: when a name's existing position differs from the new target by
|
||||
less than this fraction, no order is generated for it.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||
|
||||
from typing import List
|
||||
|
||||
import numpy as np
|
||||
import pandas as pd
|
||||
|
||||
from qlib.backtest import Order
|
||||
from qlib.backtest.decision import OrderDir, TradeDecisionWO
|
||||
from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
|
||||
|
||||
__all__ = ["WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy"]
|
||||
|
||||
DEFAULT_HOLD_BAND_PCT = 0.0
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
class WeeklyRebalanceDropoutStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
|
||||
"""TopkDropout rebalanced once per ISO week; holds otherwise.
|
||||
|
||||
Parameters
|
||||
----------
|
||||
topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
|
||||
forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
|
||||
hold_band_pct : skip order for a name whose deviation from target weight is
|
||||
below this fraction of the target (no-trade buffer band).
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
def __init__(self, *, topk, n_drop, hold_band_pct: float = DEFAULT_HOLD_BAND_PCT, **kwargs):
|
||||
super().__init__(topk=topk, n_drop=n_drop, **kwargs)
|
||||
self.hold_band_pct = hold_band_pct
|
||||
|
||||
@staticmethod
|
||||
def _iso_week(ts) -> tuple:
|
||||
return (ts.year, ts.week)
|
||||
|
||||
def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
|
||||
import copy
|
||||
|
||||
trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
|
||||
trade_start_time, trade_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
|
||||
|
||||
cur_week = self._iso_week(trade_start_time)
|
||||
prev_week = getattr(self, "_last_week", None)
|
||||
self._last_week = cur_week
|
||||
|
||||
if prev_week is not None and prev_week == cur_week:
|
||||
# not the first trading day of this ISO week -> hold
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
|
||||
|
||||
pred_start_time, pred_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step, shift=1)
|
||||
pred_score = self.signal.get_signal(start_time=pred_start_time, end_time=pred_end_time)
|
||||
if isinstance(pred_score, pd.DataFrame):
|
||||
pred_score = pred_score.iloc[:, 0]
|
||||
if pred_score is None:
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
|
||||
|
||||
if self.only_tradable:
|
||||
|
||||
def get_first_n(li, n, reverse=False):
|
||||
cur_n = 0
|
||||
res = []
|
||||
for si in reversed(li) if reverse else li:
|
||||
if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
|
||||
stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
|
||||
):
|
||||
res.append(si)
|
||||
cur_n += 1
|
||||
if cur_n >= n:
|
||||
break
|
||||
return res[::-1] if reverse else res
|
||||
|
||||
def get_last_n(li, n):
|
||||
return get_first_n(li, n, reverse=True)
|
||||
|
||||
def filter_stock(li):
|
||||
return [
|
||||
si
|
||||
for si in li
|
||||
if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
|
||||
stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
|
||||
)
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
else:
|
||||
|
||||
def get_first_n(li, n):
|
||||
return list(li)[:n]
|
||||
|
||||
def get_last_n(li, n):
|
||||
return list(li)[-n:]
|
||||
|
||||
def filter_stock(li):
|
||||
return li
|
||||
|
||||
current_temp: "object" = copy.deepcopy(self.trade_position)
|
||||
sell_order_list: List[Order] = []
|
||||
buy_order_list: List[Order] = []
|
||||
cash = current_temp.get_cash()
|
||||
current_stock_list = current_temp.get_stock_list()
|
||||
last = pred_score.reindex(current_stock_list).sort_values(ascending=False).index
|
||||
|
||||
if self.method_buy == "top":
|
||||
today = get_first_n(
|
||||
pred_score[~pred_score.index.isin(last)].sort_values(ascending=False).index,
|
||||
self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last),
|
||||
)
|
||||
elif self.method_buy == "random":
|
||||
topk_candi = get_first_n(pred_score.sort_values(ascending=False).index, self.topk)
|
||||
candi = list(filter(lambda x: x not in last, topk_candi))
|
||||
n = self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last)
|
||||
try:
|
||||
today = np.random.choice(candi, n, replace=False)
|
||||
except ValueError:
|
||||
today = candi
|
||||
else:
|
||||
raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
|
||||
|
||||
comb = pred_score.reindex(last.union(pd.Index(today))).sort_values(ascending=False).index
|
||||
|
||||
if self.method_sell == "bottom":
|
||||
sell = last[last.isin(get_last_n(comb, self.n_drop))]
|
||||
elif self.method_sell == "random":
|
||||
candi = filter_stock(last)
|
||||
try:
|
||||
sell = pd.Index(np.random.choice(candi, self.n_drop, replace=False) if len(last) else [])
|
||||
except ValueError:
|
||||
sell = candi
|
||||
else:
|
||||
raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
|
||||
|
||||
buy = today[: len(sell) + self.topk - len(last)]
|
||||
for code in current_stock_list:
|
||||
if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
|
||||
stock_id=code,
|
||||
start_time=trade_start_time,
|
||||
end_time=trade_end_time,
|
||||
direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.SELL,
|
||||
):
|
||||
continue
|
||||
if code in sell:
|
||||
time_per_step = self.trade_calendar.get_freq()
|
||||
if current_temp.get_stock_count(code, bar=time_per_step) < self.hold_thresh:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
sell_amount = current_temp.get_stock_amount(code=code)
|
||||
sell_order = Order(
|
||||
stock_id=code,
|
||||
amount=sell_amount,
|
||||
start_time=trade_start_time,
|
||||
end_time=trade_end_time,
|
||||
direction=Order.SELL,
|
||||
)
|
||||
if self.trade_exchange.check_order(sell_order):
|
||||
sell_order_list.append(sell_order)
|
||||
trade_val, trade_cost, trade_price = self.trade_exchange.deal_order(
|
||||
sell_order, position=current_temp
|
||||
)
|
||||
cash += trade_val - trade_cost
|
||||
|
||||
if len(buy) == 0:
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list, self)
|
||||
|
||||
value = cash * self.risk_degree / len(buy)
|
||||
for code in buy:
|
||||
if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
|
||||
stock_id=code,
|
||||
start_time=trade_start_time,
|
||||
end_time=trade_end_time,
|
||||
direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.BUY,
|
||||
):
|
||||
continue
|
||||
buy_price = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
|
||||
stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time, direction=OrderDir.BUY
|
||||
)
|
||||
buy_amount = value / buy_price
|
||||
factor = self.trade_exchange.get_factor(
|
||||
stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
|
||||
)
|
||||
buy_amount = self.trade_exchange.round_amount_by_trade_unit(buy_amount, factor)
|
||||
buy_order = Order(
|
||||
stock_id=code,
|
||||
amount=buy_amount,
|
||||
start_time=trade_start_time,
|
||||
end_time=trade_end_time,
|
||||
direction=Order.BUY,
|
||||
)
|
||||
buy_order_list.append(buy_order)
|
||||
|
||||
return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list + buy_order_list, self)
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user