start experiment 38 (exp/38-q06-kelly-sizing-score-magnitude-fractio)
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zhaoli
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"""Fractional-Kelly dropout strategy for cross-sectional signals.
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Sizing rule variant of ``qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy.TopkDropoutStrategy``:
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the topk/n_drop SELECTION is identical to the reference, but the buy size is
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proportional to the score MAGNITUDE (edge) instead of equal-weight, capped at a
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fraction ``cap_frac`` of the equal-weight notional so a single name cannot
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over-concentrate the book.
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``cap_frac`` is the fraction of the equal-weight per-name notional that a top
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signal can deploy at most (e.g. 0.5 = at most half the equal-weight size).
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Names whose score is below the median of the buy set get a proportionally
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smaller slice; the residual stays in cash (that is the point of the rule:
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throw away less edge per name, deploy less capital when conviction is low).
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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from typing import List
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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from qlib.backtest import Order
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from qlib.backtest.decision import OrderDir, TradeDecisionWO
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from qlib.contrib.strategy.signal_strategy import TopkDropoutStrategy
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__all__ = ["FractionalKellyDropoutStrategy"]
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DEFAULT_CAP_FRAC = 0.5
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class FractionalKellyDropoutStrategy(TopkDropoutStrategy):
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"""TopkDropout selection with score-magnitude (fractional-Kelly) sizing.
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Parameters
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----------
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topk, n_drop, method_sell, method_buy, hold_thresh, only_tradable,
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forbid_all_trade_at_limit : same as ``TopkDropoutStrategy``.
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cap_frac : max buy notional as a fraction of the equal-weight notional.
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"""
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def __init__(self, *, topk, n_drop, cap_frac: float = DEFAULT_CAP_FRAC, **kwargs):
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super().__init__(topk=topk, n_drop=n_drop, **kwargs)
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self.cap_frac = cap_frac
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def generate_trade_decision(self, execute_result=None):
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import copy
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trade_step = self.trade_calendar.get_trade_step()
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trade_start_time, trade_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step)
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pred_start_time, pred_end_time = self.trade_calendar.get_step_time(trade_step, shift=1)
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pred_score = self.signal.get_signal(start_time=pred_start_time, end_time=pred_end_time)
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if isinstance(pred_score, pd.DataFrame):
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pred_score = pred_score.iloc[:, 0]
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if pred_score is None:
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return TradeDecisionWO([], self)
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if self.only_tradable:
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def get_first_n(li, n, reverse=False):
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cur_n = 0
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res = []
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for si in reversed(li) if reverse else li:
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if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
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stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
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):
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res.append(si)
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cur_n += 1
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if cur_n >= n:
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break
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return res[::-1] if reverse else res
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def get_last_n(li, n):
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return get_first_n(li, n, reverse=True)
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def filter_stock(li):
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return [
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si
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for si in li
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if self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
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stock_id=si, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
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)
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]
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else:
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def get_first_n(li, n):
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return list(li)[:n]
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def get_last_n(li, n):
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return list(li)[-n:]
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def filter_stock(li):
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return li
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current_temp: "object" = copy.deepcopy(self.trade_position)
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sell_order_list: List[Order] = []
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buy_order_list: List[Order] = []
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cash = current_temp.get_cash()
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current_stock_list = current_temp.get_stock_list()
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last = pred_score.reindex(current_stock_list).sort_values(ascending=False).index
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if self.method_buy == "top":
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today = get_first_n(
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pred_score[~pred_score.index.isin(last)].sort_values(ascending=False).index,
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self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last),
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)
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elif self.method_buy == "random":
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topk_candi = get_first_n(pred_score.sort_values(ascending=False).index, self.topk)
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candi = list(filter(lambda x: x not in last, topk_candi))
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n = self.n_drop + self.topk - len(last)
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try:
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today = np.random.choice(candi, n, replace=False)
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except ValueError:
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today = candi
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else:
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raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
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comb = pred_score.reindex(last.union(pd.Index(today))).sort_values(ascending=False).index
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if self.method_sell == "bottom":
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sell = last[last.isin(get_last_n(comb, self.n_drop))]
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elif self.method_sell == "random":
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candi = filter_stock(last)
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try:
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sell = pd.Index(np.random.choice(candi, self.n_drop, replace=False) if len(last) else [])
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except ValueError:
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sell = candi
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else:
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raise NotImplementedError(f"This type of input is not supported")
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buy = today[: len(sell) + self.topk - len(last)]
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for code in current_stock_list:
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if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
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stock_id=code,
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start_time=trade_start_time,
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end_time=trade_end_time,
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direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.SELL,
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):
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continue
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if code in sell:
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time_per_step = self.trade_calendar.get_freq()
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if current_temp.get_stock_count(code, bar=time_per_step) < self.hold_thresh:
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continue
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sell_amount = current_temp.get_stock_amount(code=code)
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sell_order = Order(
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stock_id=code,
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amount=sell_amount,
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start_time=trade_start_time,
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end_time=trade_end_time,
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direction=Order.SELL,
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)
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if self.trade_exchange.check_order(sell_order):
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sell_order_list.append(sell_order)
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trade_val, trade_cost, trade_price = self.trade_exchange.deal_order(
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sell_order, position=current_temp
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)
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cash += trade_val - trade_cost
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if len(buy) == 0:
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return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list, self)
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# ---- fractional-Kelly sizing --------------------------------------
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# equal-weight notional (reference baseline)
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eq_notional = cash * self.risk_degree / len(buy)
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buy_scores = pred_score.reindex(buy).astype(float)
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lo, hi = buy_scores.min(), buy_scores.max()
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if hi == lo:
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w = pd.Series(1.0, index=buy_scores.index)
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else:
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w = (buy_scores - lo) / (hi - lo) # [0,1] edge magnitude
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w = w.clip(lower=0.0)
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w_max = w.max()
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w = w / w_max if w_max > 0 else w # max == 1.0
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for code in buy:
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if not self.trade_exchange.is_stock_tradable(
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stock_id=code,
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start_time=trade_start_time,
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end_time=trade_end_time,
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direction=None if self.forbid_all_trade_at_limit else OrderDir.BUY,
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):
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continue
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buy_price = self.trade_exchange.get_deal_price(
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stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time, direction=OrderDir.BUY
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)
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notional = eq_notional * min(self.cap_frac, float(w.get(code, 0.0)))
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buy_amount = notional / buy_price
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factor = self.trade_exchange.get_factor(
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stock_id=code, start_time=trade_start_time, end_time=trade_end_time
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)
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buy_amount = self.trade_exchange.round_amount_by_trade_unit(buy_amount, factor)
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buy_order = Order(
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stock_id=code,
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amount=buy_amount,
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start_time=trade_start_time,
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end_time=trade_end_time,
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direction=Order.BUY,
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)
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buy_order_list.append(buy_order)
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return TradeDecisionWO(sell_order_list + buy_order_list, self)
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