book: fold Q-campaign (exp 33-43) evidence into ledger, claims, and chapters

- EVIDENCE#022-032: Q01-Q11 runs (2 PASS / 9 FAIL) with run_ids and branches - CLAIMS: promote M2 Sharpe-drift to PROVEN (Q01), refute Kelly (Q06), risk-limit-as-alpha (Q08), standalone reversal (Q11); add label-horizon + weekly-rebalance + long-short-turnover claims - README: TOC + claim inventories for ch 04/05/07/08/09/10/12 updated to the Q-campaign - new chapters 04 (prune), 05 (ensembles), 07 (isolation), 08 (construction), 09 (cost/turnover), 10 (risk limits & gates), 12 (synthesis); ch 00/02/03 updated - Q08 calibration evidence persisted under book/data/evidence/q08-risklimit/
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+# Chapter 12 — Synthesis: How Proved Truth Compounds
+
+Status: drafting. Claim inventory: see `README.md` ch. 12.
+
+This chapter is the scoreboard. It collects everything the campaign proved, in order of what actually moved performance — and why the Q-campaign's 9 refutations were as informative as its 2 passes.
+
+## The scoreboard (clean lake, exp 21–43)
+
+| Lever | Evidence | Net effect |
+|-------|----------|-----------|
+| **Data quality** | exp 21 (collapse), 22–24 (fix + revalidation) | The single largest swing: pre-reset +7.77% became −20.6% on the same config, then reappeared as a real signal. Everything before the reset is void. |
+| **Cost relief / construction** | exp 26 (n_drop 2→1): −3.21%→+2.13%; exp 39 (weekly, Q07): **+12.51%, IR 1.24, maxDD −4.13%** | The dominant *positive* lever. Same signal, cadence changed. |
+| **Feature pruning** | exp 9, 24, 25, 31, 33 (Q01), 43 (Q11) | Generic pruned set > model-specific; one warranted addition (sp_sharpe_22, Q01); standalone reversal refuted (Q11). |
+| **Ensemble** | exp 28 (2<5 seeds), exp 34 (Q02: 10 seeds) | Real but bounded: breadth saturates ~5 seeds; extra seeds don't clear costs. |
+| **Risk limits** | exp 40 (Q08) | Safety net only: floor binds, no IR edge, DD relief is defunding. |
+| **Gates** | exp 20, 42 (Q10) | Refuted: regime overlay churns, adds cost, no edge. |
+| **Sizing** | exp 38 (Q06) | Weak: half-Kelly mildly positive, below bar. |
+| **Long-short** | exp 41 (Q09) | Refuted by turnover: pre-cost edge +6.6% destroyed by $96.7k cost. |
+
+`PROVEN — EVIDENCE#010–032`.
+
+## What the Q-campaign settled
+
+Eleven pre-registered runs, two passes:
+
+1. **Q01 PASS** — M2's risk-adjusted 22d Sharpe-drift feature reproduces on the compact set (net +6.53%, IR 0.62). Promotes exp-30's lone result from HYPOTHESIS to PROVEN. `EVIDENCE#022`.
+2. **Q07 PASS** — weekly recompute is the campaign's best construction (net +12.51%, IR 1.24). The forward path. `EVIDENCE#028`.
+3. **Nine refutations** — seed breadth (Q02), wider book (Q03), long labels under daily churn (Q04/Q05), Kelly sizing (Q06), risk-limit-as-alpha (Q08), long-short (Q09), regime gate (Q10), standalone reversal (Q11). Each closed a direction the desk had been considering, at one-run cost each. `EVIDENCE#023–027, 029–032`.
+
+The refuted runs were as valuable as the passes: the label-horizon result (22d label, IC 0.097, yet net negative) is exactly the kind of counterintuitive fact a desk must not re-learn. `REFERENCED (falsification) + PROVEN (recorded negatives)`.
+
+## The order of operations a reader should copy
+
+1. **Fix data first** — re-validate the lake before any run (ch. 06).
+2. **Attack turnover before signal** — cadence and dropped-name policy are the proven levers (ch. 09).
+3. **Test features one at a time** against the reference (ch. 07); prune, don't add (ch. 04).
+4. **Use a small ensemble** (5 seeds) and stop there (ch. 05).
+5. **A/B risk limits** before shipping; keep them as a safety net (ch. 10).
+6. **Reconcile live** — the funnel and slippage are the only claims that count (ch. 00/11).
+
+## Open questions
+
+- `TODO(evidence-needed: reproduce exp 39 weekly rebalance on a second window, then a live round)`
+- `TODO(evidence-needed: long-horizon label at weekly cadence — the proven signal edge with the proven low-turnover construction)`
+- `TODO(evidence-needed: out-of-universe (non-ETF) validation of the compact stochastic set)`
+- `TODO(evidence-needed: realized-cost reconciliation of the weekly construction against the 5bp/15bp/$5 model once live)`
+
+## Evidence cited in this chapter
+
+Composite of `EVIDENCE#010–032`; see the per-chapter evidence tables (ch. 04–10) and `EVIDENCE.md` for run/branch level citations.