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book: fold Q-campaign (exp 33-43) evidence into ledger, claims, and chapters

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- EVIDENCE#022-032: Q01-Q11 runs (2 PASS / 9 FAIL) with run_ids and branches
- CLAIMS: promote M2 Sharpe-drift to PROVEN (Q01), refute Kelly (Q06), risk-limit-as-alpha (Q08), standalone reversal (Q11); add label-horizon + weekly-rebalance + long-short-turnover claims
- README: TOC + claim inventories for ch 04/05/07/08/09/10/12 updated to the Q-campaign
- new chapters 04 (prune), 05 (ensembles), 07 (isolation), 08 (construction), 09 (cost/turnover), 10 (risk limits & gates), 12 (synthesis); ch 00/02/03 updated
- Q08 calibration evidence persisted under book/data/evidence/q08-risklimit/
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@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ None of these numbers — slippage in bps, cost as a fraction of gross, the rati
## Backtests are historical, not promises
Throughout this book, backtest metrics carry a warning label, not a hiding place: universe, date window, and whether the hypothesis was pre-registered before the run. This matters because TradeAC ran 31+ experiments; with that many draws, some positive results will be luck. The book is explicit about which runs were pre-registered (e.g. isolation runs exp 28–31) and which were exploratory. `REFERENCED` — multiple-testing/cherry-picking risk is standard research practice; see `references/` as it accrues.
Throughout this book, backtest metrics carry a warning label, not a hiding place: universe, date window, and whether the hypothesis was pre-registered before the run. This matters because TradeAC ran 40+ experiments; with that many draws, some positive results will be luck. The book is explicit about which runs were pre-registered (e.g. isolation runs exp 28–31 and the Q-campaign exp 33–43) and which were exploratory. `REFERENCED` — multiple-testing/cherry-picking risk is standard research practice; see `references/` as it accrues.
The most important proof of this discipline is the clean-lake reset, which this book treats as a turning point rather than a footnote: the pre-reset reference signal did **not** reproduce on a rebuilt lake (`EVIDENCE#010 → exp 21`). Had the book quoted the pre-reset backtest as fact, it would have shipped a lie. The trail and the traceability loop are what allowed the desk to catch it. Chapter 06 tells that story in full.